Wave in Central Caribbean

#141 Postby **storms in NC** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 5:26 pm

It will be very interesting to see where it will go. You have the system out in the gulf and you have the BH to the east. Where could it really go ? :?:

Mets?

Extremeweatherguy · #142 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 6:02 pm

latest 72 hr. surface forecast has the wave in the central Caribbean in 3 days:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

At that speed it would probably be entering the Gulf by July 31st/August 1st and could be a landfall issue (IF it develops) by the 2nd or 3rd of the month! :eek:

Opal storm · #143 Postby **Opal storm** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 7:14 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:latest 72 hr. surface forecast has the wave in the central Caribbean in 3 days:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

At that speed it would probably be entering the Gulf by July 31st/August 1st and could be a landfall issue (IF it develops) by the 2nd or 3rd of the month!

That's a pretty strong ridge they have forecasted,it may hit the Yucatan and go into the BOC instead of the Gulf.

#144 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 7:26 pm

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W S OF 22N WITH A 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE
WAVE NEAR 13N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
WELL-DEFINED INVERTED-V PATTERN IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD. THIS
WAVE REMAINS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LATEST SURGE OF AFRICAN
DUST. IT REMAINS VOID OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN
55W-62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN
52W-57W.

8 PM Discussion.

boca · #145 Postby **boca** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 8:49 pm

Looks like their more convection around the low pressure center within the wave axis.

HurricaneMaster_PR · #146 Postby **HurricaneMaster_PR** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 9:12 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT TUE JUL 25 2006

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES. ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO
SLOWLY INCREASE...ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

Extremeweatherguy · #147 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 9:14 pm

HurricaneMaster_PR wrote:TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT TUE JUL 25 2006

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES. ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO
SLOWLY INCREASE...ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

each new TWO seems to be more and more in favor of a chance of development.

Extremeweatherguy · #148 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 9:15 pm

Also, remember yesterday? This low was forecast to be up to 1013mb today (from 1011mb yesterday). However, it actually went down to 1010mb. Just thought I would point that out.

BensonTCwatcher · #149 Postby **BensonTCwatcher** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 9:26 pm

Yep, I can't pick up any real LLC anymore. Of course the QS eclipse is right over it this pass. I would think with the dry air keeping the convection at bay, this wave will not devlopment significantly until it clears the islands at best.

HurricaneHunter914 · #150 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 9:26 pm

Possible 99L in the near future?

BensonTCwatcher · #151 Postby **BensonTCwatcher** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 9:31 pm

Well it is the tropics, but slow in NHC speak probably means 72 hours or more out.

boca · #152 Postby **boca** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 9:36 pm

I'm not writing this wave off until the fat lady sings and right now she has laryngitis.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

HurricaneHunter914 · #153 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 9:38 pm

So the GOM disturbance might be Chris and this wave could be Debby (pronunciation shouldn't be so difficult for her name also).

Swimdude · #154 Postby **Swimdude** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 9:44 pm

The NHC is probably more concerned with the GOM system at the moment. All eyes will turn to this wave in about 24-36 hours. It just needs to get the heck out of all that dust.

BensonTCwatcher · #155 Postby **BensonTCwatcher** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 9:48 pm

boca wrote:I'm not writing this wave off until the fat lady sings and right now she has laryngitis.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

OK fair enough, it would kind of foolish to write off a wave that pronounced. I have seen more pitiful waves turn into monsters, but usually later in the year.

boca · #156 Postby **boca** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 9:54 pm

I'm treating this year like last even though its not the same this system should be coming out of that dry air pretty soon,but if I'm wrong I like my crow well done so it crunches with barbecue sauce.

I think tomorrow this area will look more impressive than today.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

#157 Postby **GeneratorPower** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 11:35 pm

The convection continues to increase, although it's difficult to make out any center or specific rotation. The last 3 hours have seen a marked increase in convection.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

MortisFL · #158 Postby **MortisFL** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 11:52 pm

No doubt about the convection increase. Especially to the north side of where the swirl is.

#159 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Jul 26, 2006 12:24 am

it is increasing as I expected....pulling in some moisture from the SW - still looking at a diurnal maximum to happen later tonight - lets see if some more reds and oranges show up

It is leaving the dust finally...

HurricaneHunter914 · #160 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Wed Jul 26, 2006 12:25 am

99L will soon be the new name of this thread.

Wave in Central Caribbean

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