98L invest,W.GOM,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3
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Yankeegirl
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http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes
Does anybody see a circulation about 100 miles ENE of Brownsville.
Does anybody see a circulation about 100 miles ENE of Brownsville.
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Stratosphere747
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The importance of this system has really become the potential of a significant rainfall event for those of us on the Middle/Upper Texas coast, highlighted by what both 57 and AFM have described.
It seems to be obvious that any actual formation of a true TC has passed, unless the movement of energy completely stops for a few days, which is unlikely.
Excerpts below of what could be setting up, but hopefully will not come to fruition.
57's thoughts....
"Now a very weak LLC inland over Texas over the next 24-48 hours COULD be a major factor as far as the potential for what we sometimes call a "noctournal core dump". Such rainfall events are more common at night, because all the convergence is focused on a single area and not driven by daytime heating. That's what happened with Allison in 2001 over NE Houston. During the night, a weak area of convergence inland can concentrate all rainfall in a small area, producing incredible amounts of rain if the low is slow-moving. If this disturbance can develop a better-defined LLC then there may be a greater threat of one of these heavy rainfall events somewhere in east Texas."
AFM's thoughts...
"What has me a little concerned...especially as far as a core rain event for tonight is concerned...is that the area of precip is so well developed during the diurnal min...I can't imagine what it will look like come 4 am when we hit the diurnal max.
Especially given the models insistance that some good mid-level vorticity is supposed to set up over the coastal bend/SETX area around sunrise.
We could have a real problem on our hands come 8 am in the Houston/GLS area if this core rain event sets up."
These are only possibilities and if it were not to occur, should not be construed as an actual forecast, just thoughts from experienced Mets from this region. I would be more concerned about an event like described above happening, than this system getting a name....
It seems to be obvious that any actual formation of a true TC has passed, unless the movement of energy completely stops for a few days, which is unlikely.
Excerpts below of what could be setting up, but hopefully will not come to fruition.
57's thoughts....
"Now a very weak LLC inland over Texas over the next 24-48 hours COULD be a major factor as far as the potential for what we sometimes call a "noctournal core dump". Such rainfall events are more common at night, because all the convergence is focused on a single area and not driven by daytime heating. That's what happened with Allison in 2001 over NE Houston. During the night, a weak area of convergence inland can concentrate all rainfall in a small area, producing incredible amounts of rain if the low is slow-moving. If this disturbance can develop a better-defined LLC then there may be a greater threat of one of these heavy rainfall events somewhere in east Texas."
AFM's thoughts...
"What has me a little concerned...especially as far as a core rain event for tonight is concerned...is that the area of precip is so well developed during the diurnal min...I can't imagine what it will look like come 4 am when we hit the diurnal max.
Especially given the models insistance that some good mid-level vorticity is supposed to set up over the coastal bend/SETX area around sunrise.
We could have a real problem on our hands come 8 am in the Houston/GLS area if this core rain event sets up."
These are only possibilities and if it were not to occur, should not be construed as an actual forecast, just thoughts from experienced Mets from this region. I would be more concerned about an event like described above happening, than this system getting a name....
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teal61 wrote:AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
803 PM CDT TUE JUL 25 2006
.UPDATE...RADAR LOOPS AND SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A WK LOW LVL
CIRCULATION NEAR PORT MANSFIELD. THIS LOW LVL CICRULATION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NWD OVERNIGHT.
LLC?? can you say depression anyone....makes no difference just wanted to name it other than a disturbance....
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SouthFloridawx
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Yankeegirl
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Stormcenter
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Stratosphere747 wrote:The importance of this system has really become the potential of a significant rainfall event for those of us on the Middle/Upper Texas coast, highlighted by what both 57 and AFM have described.
It seems to be obvious that any actual formation of a true TC has passed, unless the movement of energy completely stops for a few days, which is unlikely.
Excerpts below of what could be setting up, but hopefully will not come to fruition.
57's thoughts....
"Now a very weak LLC inland over Texas over the next 24-48 hours COULD be a major factor as far as the potential for what we sometimes call a "noctournal core dump". Such rainfall events are more common at night, because all the convergence is focused on a single area and not driven by daytime heating. That's what happened with Allison in 2001 over NE Houston. During the night, a weak area of convergence inland can concentrate all rainfall in a small area, producing incredible amounts of rain if the low is slow-moving. If this disturbance can develop a better-defined LLC then there may be a greater threat of one of these heavy rainfall events somewhere in east Texas."
AFM's thoughts...
"What has me a little concerned...especially as far as a core rain event for tonight is concerned...is that the area of precip is so well developed during the diurnal min...I can't imagine what it will look like come 4 am when we hit the diurnal max.
Especially given the models insistance that some good mid-level vorticity is supposed to set up over the coastal bend/SETX area around sunrise.
We could have a real problem on our hands come 8 am in the Houston/GLS area if this core rain event sets up."
These are only possibilities and if it were not to occur, should not be construed as an actual forecast, just thoughts from experienced Mets from this region. I would be more concerned about an event like described above happening, than this system getting a name....
I respectfully disagree with your opinion.
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Mike Doran
Let me put in my two cents from left field.
When the QBO is like it is, there is a climatologically greater chance for 'twin' storms. I think that is because the QBO is about electrics and ionosphere patterns that occur in relation to the electrical differences between fair weather and cloudy regions. And we have a storm level with the EGOM in the EPAC. We have coupling banding characteristics in the EGOM. I am not looking at lows or highs here. Appreciate, of course, that with a surface low there is decarbonation and profound electrical organization--so that isn't there, of course. But banding alone can bring about some interesting electrics--as the dielectric constant of air is MUCH different than water. So then all you need is a displacement current to power microphysics changes. And, well, do we have it. Presently the SOI is rising AND Dan just discharged AND we are in the midst of a MAX strike event--20k/hour:
https://thunderstorm.vaisala.com/tux/js ... plorer.jsp
When the QBO is like it is, there is a climatologically greater chance for 'twin' storms. I think that is because the QBO is about electrics and ionosphere patterns that occur in relation to the electrical differences between fair weather and cloudy regions. And we have a storm level with the EGOM in the EPAC. We have coupling banding characteristics in the EGOM. I am not looking at lows or highs here. Appreciate, of course, that with a surface low there is decarbonation and profound electrical organization--so that isn't there, of course. But banding alone can bring about some interesting electrics--as the dielectric constant of air is MUCH different than water. So then all you need is a displacement current to power microphysics changes. And, well, do we have it. Presently the SOI is rising AND Dan just discharged AND we are in the midst of a MAX strike event--20k/hour:
https://thunderstorm.vaisala.com/tux/js ... plorer.jsp
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Stratosphere747
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Stormcenter
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Stratosphere747 wrote:Stormcenter....
When I state "true TC" I am constituting a significant closed surface low that attains TS or even hurricane status.
This is no doubt "tropical" in nature...Just not a wind type of event.
Hey, Strat747 you are going to get pounded down there on the coast in the am. You'll get the intense squalls before us. Stay frosty....
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vbhoutex
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ROCK wrote:I think it has a small window of opportunity but its closing fast unless it forms a LLC further east.
I do agree with the Allison type set-up as described above. I suspect though this will not sit over us for very long before pulling out.
I hope you are right!!! The rains have been moving pretty well today, but we still have areas of Houston Metro over 3" for the day and now some more is moving in and in some cases in the same areas that already got a soaking today.
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vbhoutex wrote:ROCK wrote:I think it has a small window of opportunity but its closing fast unless it forms a LLC further east.
I do agree with the Allison type set-up as described above. I suspect though this will not sit over us for very long before pulling out.
I hope you are right!!! The rains have been moving pretty well today, but we still have areas of Houston Metro over 3" for the day and now some more is moving in and in some cases in the same areas that already got a soaking today.
True, we had that lull this evening that allowed for some good draining so maybe that will help this AM. Pearland only got maybe 1 1/2 today but my yard is holding water.
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[/img]Mike Doran wrote:Let me put in my two cents from left field.
When the QBO is like it is, there is a climatologically greater chance for 'twin' storms. I think that is because the QBO is about electrics and ionosphere patterns that occur in relation to the electrical differences between fair weather and cloudy regions. And we have a storm level with the EGOM in the EPAC. We have coupling banding characteristics in the EGOM. I am not looking at lows or highs here. Appreciate, of course, that with a surface low there is decarbonation and profound electrical organization--so that isn't there, of course. But banding alone can bring about some interesting electrics--as the dielectric constant of air is MUCH different than water. So then all you need is a displacement current to power microphysics changes. And, well, do we have it. Presently the SOI is rising AND Dan just discharged AND we are in the midst of a MAX strike event--20k/hour:
https://thunderstorm.vaisala.com/tux/js ... plorer.jsp
Can you put this in easier terms to understand because I know you have a point but I don't understand the terminology.
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