Tropical Depression Emilia (06E) in EPAC=Last Advisory
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WindRunner
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Hmmm . . . no one posted the 5pm EDT/2pm PDT advisory . . . which brought it back down to 50kts. Interesting read . . . especially about the UKMET losing it.
WTPZ41 KNHC 242044
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006
200 PM PDT MON JUL 24 2006
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF EMILIA IS
LOCATED SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED POSITION.
CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AS IT
APPEARS THAT SOME STABLE AIR NORTHWEST AND WEST OF THE CYCLONE
HAS BEEN ENTRAINED INTO THE CIRCULATION. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM AFWA...AND 45 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB.
THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 50 KT.
EMILIA HAS TURNED MORE NORTHWESTWARD IN THE PAST 6-12 HOURS AND
APPEARS THAT IT MAY HAVE ROUNDED THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNTIED STATES. THE
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/7 KT. EMILIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD...BEING STEERED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...EXCEPT
THAT THE UKMET TRACKER SHIFTED TO ANOTHER VORTICITY CENTER OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AT 72 HOURS...WHICH CREATED AN UNREALISTIC CONU
CONSENSUS FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
EMILIA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN UNDER A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARM WATER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN
PROBLEM FOR INTENSIFICATION WILL BE THE STABLE AIR... AND THE
INTENSITY FORECAST ONCE AGAIN DOES NOT SHOW AS MUCH STRENGTHENING
AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT STILL KEEPS IN THE CHANCE THAT EMILIA
COULD BRIEFLY BECOME A HURRICANE. IN 36-48 HOURS THE CYCLONE WILL
BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER THAT WILL INDUCE
WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE FOR
THE FIRST 36 HOURS... THEN FOLLOWS IT CLOSELY DURING THE LATER
PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/2100Z 19.2N 110.4W 50 KT
12HR VT 25/0600Z 19.8N 111.3W 55 KT
24HR VT 25/1800Z 21.0N 112.8W 65 KT
36HR VT 26/0600Z 22.3N 114.5W 60 KT
48HR VT 26/1800Z 23.5N 116.2W 45 KT
72HR VT 27/1800Z 25.0N 119.0W 30 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 28/1800Z 26.0N 121.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART
WTPZ41 KNHC 242044
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006
200 PM PDT MON JUL 24 2006
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF EMILIA IS
LOCATED SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED POSITION.
CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AS IT
APPEARS THAT SOME STABLE AIR NORTHWEST AND WEST OF THE CYCLONE
HAS BEEN ENTRAINED INTO THE CIRCULATION. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM AFWA...AND 45 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB.
THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 50 KT.
EMILIA HAS TURNED MORE NORTHWESTWARD IN THE PAST 6-12 HOURS AND
APPEARS THAT IT MAY HAVE ROUNDED THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNTIED STATES. THE
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/7 KT. EMILIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD...BEING STEERED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...EXCEPT
THAT THE UKMET TRACKER SHIFTED TO ANOTHER VORTICITY CENTER OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AT 72 HOURS...WHICH CREATED AN UNREALISTIC CONU
CONSENSUS FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
EMILIA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN UNDER A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARM WATER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN
PROBLEM FOR INTENSIFICATION WILL BE THE STABLE AIR... AND THE
INTENSITY FORECAST ONCE AGAIN DOES NOT SHOW AS MUCH STRENGTHENING
AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT STILL KEEPS IN THE CHANCE THAT EMILIA
COULD BRIEFLY BECOME A HURRICANE. IN 36-48 HOURS THE CYCLONE WILL
BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER THAT WILL INDUCE
WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE FOR
THE FIRST 36 HOURS... THEN FOLLOWS IT CLOSELY DURING THE LATER
PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/2100Z 19.2N 110.4W 50 KT
12HR VT 25/0600Z 19.8N 111.3W 55 KT
24HR VT 25/1800Z 21.0N 112.8W 65 KT
36HR VT 26/0600Z 22.3N 114.5W 60 KT
48HR VT 26/1800Z 23.5N 116.2W 45 KT
72HR VT 27/1800Z 25.0N 119.0W 30 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 28/1800Z 26.0N 121.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART
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cycloneye
- Admin
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191
WTPZ41 KNHC 250251
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006
800 PM PDT MON JUL 24 2006
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO COME DOWN AS THE AMOUNT OF
DEEP CONVECTION GENERALLY DECREASES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET
TO 45 KT IN ACCORD WITH THE CI NUMBERS OF T3.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB.
OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO THERE HAS BEEN A MODEST INCREASE IN THE
CORE BANDING AND SYMMETRY...EVEN AS THE TOPS CONTINUE TO WARM.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING
TONIGHT BEFORE EMILIA CROSSES THE 26C SST ISOTHERM TOMORROW.
HOWEVER...GIVEN ALL THE COOL STABLE AIR BEING DRAWN INTO THE
CIRCULATION FROM THE NORTHWEST...IT NO LONGER SEEMS AS THOUGH
EMILIA CAN BECOME A HURRICANE. BY LATE TOMORROW...EMILIA SHOULD
BEGIN DECAYING OVER COOLER WATERS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/6...A TRACK QUITE A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS MOTION. WATER VAPOR WINDS AND GLOBAL MODEL ANALYSES
SHOW A MID-LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF EMILIA WHICH IS HELPING TO
NUDGE IT INTO THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
BEND THE TRACK BACK TO THE LEFT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
FORECAST TRACK...WHICH HAD TO BE SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BECAUSE OF THE RECENT MOTION...IS CLOSE TO
THE GFS/UKMET/GFDL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/0300Z 19.8N 110.6W 45 KT
12HR VT 25/1200Z 20.6N 111.4W 50 KT
24HR VT 26/0000Z 22.0N 112.7W 45 KT
36HR VT 26/1200Z 23.3N 114.1W 35 KT
48HR VT 27/0000Z 24.2N 115.9W 30 KT...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 28/0000Z 25.5N 119.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
Emilia is no longer forecast to become a hurricane.
WTPZ41 KNHC 250251
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006
800 PM PDT MON JUL 24 2006
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO COME DOWN AS THE AMOUNT OF
DEEP CONVECTION GENERALLY DECREASES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET
TO 45 KT IN ACCORD WITH THE CI NUMBERS OF T3.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB.
OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO THERE HAS BEEN A MODEST INCREASE IN THE
CORE BANDING AND SYMMETRY...EVEN AS THE TOPS CONTINUE TO WARM.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING
TONIGHT BEFORE EMILIA CROSSES THE 26C SST ISOTHERM TOMORROW.
HOWEVER...GIVEN ALL THE COOL STABLE AIR BEING DRAWN INTO THE
CIRCULATION FROM THE NORTHWEST...IT NO LONGER SEEMS AS THOUGH
EMILIA CAN BECOME A HURRICANE. BY LATE TOMORROW...EMILIA SHOULD
BEGIN DECAYING OVER COOLER WATERS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/6...A TRACK QUITE A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS MOTION. WATER VAPOR WINDS AND GLOBAL MODEL ANALYSES
SHOW A MID-LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF EMILIA WHICH IS HELPING TO
NUDGE IT INTO THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
BEND THE TRACK BACK TO THE LEFT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
FORECAST TRACK...WHICH HAD TO BE SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BECAUSE OF THE RECENT MOTION...IS CLOSE TO
THE GFS/UKMET/GFDL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/0300Z 19.8N 110.6W 45 KT
12HR VT 25/1200Z 20.6N 111.4W 50 KT
24HR VT 26/0000Z 22.0N 112.7W 45 KT
36HR VT 26/1200Z 23.3N 114.1W 35 KT
48HR VT 27/0000Z 24.2N 115.9W 30 KT...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 28/0000Z 25.5N 119.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
Emilia is no longer forecast to become a hurricane.
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Hohwxny
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HurricaneJoe22
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AnnularCane
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WTPZ41 KNHC 251432
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 25 2006
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT EMILIA HAS STRENGTHENED WITH
INCREASING CONVECTION SEEN OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB. DESPITE THE RECENT
ORGANIZATION...EMILIA'S OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING APPEARS SMALL
AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND A MORE
STABLE AIRMASS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE MORE
STRENGTHENING THROUGH 12 HOURS WITH WEAKENING INDICATED THEREAFTER.
EMILIA IS LOCATED WITHIN A LARGE LOWER TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IN BETWEEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
AND A SECOND RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND NORTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS PATTERN HAS RESULTED IN A NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION WHICH MANY OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED WELL.
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUE AN OVERALL NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 36
HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE GFDL AGAIN TURNS THE CYCLONE NORTHWARDS
WHILE THE GFS-BASED BAM MODELS TURN THE CYCLONE WESTWARD. GIVEN
THE RECENT PERFORMANCE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AND ALONG THE FAR RIGHT SIDE OF
THE GUIDANCE SUITE THROUGH 24 HOURS. SUBSEQUENTLY...A GRADUAL TURN
MORE TOWARDS THE WEST IS SHOWN UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THAT AN
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW SYSTEM WILL BE STEERED BY THE LOWER LEVEL
EASTERLIES. ONE CAVEAT IS THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT
EMILIA COULD BE TOO FAR EAST FOR THE LOW LEVEL RIDGING TO TURN IT
WESTWARD. GIVEN THE SPREAD OF THE GUIDANCE AT THE LATER STAGES OF
THE FORECAST...A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION IS SHOWN.
NEARBY SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND SSM/I DERIVED OCEAN WINDS REQUIRE AN
EXPANSION OF THE WIND RADII OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THIS
CHANGE NOW WARRANTS THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/1500Z 20.6N 111.3W 55 KT
12HR VT 26/0000Z 21.8N 112.3W 60 KT
24HR VT 26/1200Z 23.3N 114.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 27/0000Z 24.3N 115.5W 40 KT
48HR VT 27/1200Z 25.2N 116.8W 30 KT...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 28/1200Z 25.8N 119.6W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 25 2006
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT EMILIA HAS STRENGTHENED WITH
INCREASING CONVECTION SEEN OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB. DESPITE THE RECENT
ORGANIZATION...EMILIA'S OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING APPEARS SMALL
AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND A MORE
STABLE AIRMASS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE MORE
STRENGTHENING THROUGH 12 HOURS WITH WEAKENING INDICATED THEREAFTER.
EMILIA IS LOCATED WITHIN A LARGE LOWER TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IN BETWEEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
AND A SECOND RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND NORTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS PATTERN HAS RESULTED IN A NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION WHICH MANY OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED WELL.
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUE AN OVERALL NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 36
HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE GFDL AGAIN TURNS THE CYCLONE NORTHWARDS
WHILE THE GFS-BASED BAM MODELS TURN THE CYCLONE WESTWARD. GIVEN
THE RECENT PERFORMANCE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AND ALONG THE FAR RIGHT SIDE OF
THE GUIDANCE SUITE THROUGH 24 HOURS. SUBSEQUENTLY...A GRADUAL TURN
MORE TOWARDS THE WEST IS SHOWN UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THAT AN
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW SYSTEM WILL BE STEERED BY THE LOWER LEVEL
EASTERLIES. ONE CAVEAT IS THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT
EMILIA COULD BE TOO FAR EAST FOR THE LOW LEVEL RIDGING TO TURN IT
WESTWARD. GIVEN THE SPREAD OF THE GUIDANCE AT THE LATER STAGES OF
THE FORECAST...A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION IS SHOWN.
NEARBY SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND SSM/I DERIVED OCEAN WINDS REQUIRE AN
EXPANSION OF THE WIND RADII OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THIS
CHANGE NOW WARRANTS THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/1500Z 20.6N 111.3W 55 KT
12HR VT 26/0000Z 21.8N 112.3W 60 KT
24HR VT 26/1200Z 23.3N 114.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 27/0000Z 24.3N 115.5W 40 KT
48HR VT 27/1200Z 25.2N 116.8W 30 KT...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 28/1200Z 25.8N 119.6W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN
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cycloneye
- Admin
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000
WTPZ31 KNHC 251730
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006
1100 AM PDT TUE JUL 25 2006
...EMILIA MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...OUTER BANDS AFFECTING
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA FROM BUENAVISTA TO BAHIA MAGDALENA. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THIS AREA LATER TODAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.4 WEST OR ABOUT 135
MILES...215 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
EMILIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...
16 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. WHILE THIS MOTION SHOULD KEEP THE
CENTER OF EMILIA OFFSHORE...THE STORM MAY COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION...21.4 N...111.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN
11 AM PDT Intermidiete Advisory.
WTPZ31 KNHC 251730
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006
1100 AM PDT TUE JUL 25 2006
...EMILIA MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...OUTER BANDS AFFECTING
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA FROM BUENAVISTA TO BAHIA MAGDALENA. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THIS AREA LATER TODAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.4 WEST OR ABOUT 135
MILES...215 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
EMILIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...
16 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. WHILE THIS MOTION SHOULD KEEP THE
CENTER OF EMILIA OFFSHORE...THE STORM MAY COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION...21.4 N...111.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN
11 AM PDT Intermidiete Advisory.
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cycloneye
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126
WTPZ41 KNHC 252035
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006
200 PM PDT TUE JUL 25 2006
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT EMILIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING
THE LAST 6 HOURS. INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB REMAIN
55 KT AND SO DOES THE INITIAL INTENSITY. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT
EMILIA HAS PEAKED AND THE CYCLONE IS NOW EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND A MORE
STABLE AIRMASS. EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 48
HOURS AND BE DISSIPATED BY 72 HOURS.
EMILIA HAS AGAIN VEERED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK
WITH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE NOW 340/11. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
APPARENTLY HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING THE COMPLEX STEERING PATTERN
WHICH CONSISTS OF A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SANDWICHED IN
BETWEEN A STRONG DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
AND A SECOND RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND NORTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA. ADDITIONALLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A
WEAK TROUGH HAS FORMED WEST OF EMILIA. THIS PATTERN HAS RESULTED IN
A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE DAY. GIVEN THE CURRENT
MOTION AND THE RECENT PERFORMANCE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALONG THE FAR RIGHT HAND SIDE OF THE MODEL
SUITE THROUGH 24 HOURS AND NEAR THE CONU CONSENSUS THEREAFTER.
SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODELS EXISTS DURING THE
LATER STAGES OF THE FORECAST. THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS
SOLUTIONS IS WHETHER THE REMNANT LOW FROM EMILIA WILL BE FAR ENOUGH
WEST TO BE STEERED BY THE LOWER LEVEL EASTERLIES OR FAR ENOUGH EAST
TO CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE GFS BASED BAM MODELS BUT SLOWER GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. THE NEW
OFFICIAL TRACK REPRESENTS A LARGER THAN NORMAL SHIFT TO THE RIGHT
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
GIVEN THE CURRENT MOTION AND ANTICIPATED TRACK...IT IS NOW NECESSARY
TO UPGRADE THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/2100Z 21.8N 111.6W 55 KT
12HR VT 26/0600Z 23.1N 112.5W 50 KT
24HR VT 26/1800Z 24.5N 114.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 27/0600Z 25.5N 115.3W 35 KT
48HR VT 27/1800Z 26.2N 116.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 28/1800Z 26.8N 118.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN
WTPZ41 KNHC 252035
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006
200 PM PDT TUE JUL 25 2006
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT EMILIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING
THE LAST 6 HOURS. INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB REMAIN
55 KT AND SO DOES THE INITIAL INTENSITY. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT
EMILIA HAS PEAKED AND THE CYCLONE IS NOW EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND A MORE
STABLE AIRMASS. EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 48
HOURS AND BE DISSIPATED BY 72 HOURS.
EMILIA HAS AGAIN VEERED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK
WITH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE NOW 340/11. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
APPARENTLY HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING THE COMPLEX STEERING PATTERN
WHICH CONSISTS OF A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SANDWICHED IN
BETWEEN A STRONG DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
AND A SECOND RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND NORTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA. ADDITIONALLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A
WEAK TROUGH HAS FORMED WEST OF EMILIA. THIS PATTERN HAS RESULTED IN
A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE DAY. GIVEN THE CURRENT
MOTION AND THE RECENT PERFORMANCE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALONG THE FAR RIGHT HAND SIDE OF THE MODEL
SUITE THROUGH 24 HOURS AND NEAR THE CONU CONSENSUS THEREAFTER.
SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODELS EXISTS DURING THE
LATER STAGES OF THE FORECAST. THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS
SOLUTIONS IS WHETHER THE REMNANT LOW FROM EMILIA WILL BE FAR ENOUGH
WEST TO BE STEERED BY THE LOWER LEVEL EASTERLIES OR FAR ENOUGH EAST
TO CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE GFS BASED BAM MODELS BUT SLOWER GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. THE NEW
OFFICIAL TRACK REPRESENTS A LARGER THAN NORMAL SHIFT TO THE RIGHT
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
GIVEN THE CURRENT MOTION AND ANTICIPATED TRACK...IT IS NOW NECESSARY
TO UPGRADE THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/2100Z 21.8N 111.6W 55 KT
12HR VT 26/0600Z 23.1N 112.5W 50 KT
24HR VT 26/1800Z 24.5N 114.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 27/0600Z 25.5N 115.3W 35 KT
48HR VT 27/1800Z 26.2N 116.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 28/1800Z 26.8N 118.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN
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Epsilon_Fan
- Category 1
- Posts: 353
- Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2006 1:03 pm
- Location: Charleston, SC
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145950
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
652
WTPZ41 KNHC 260254
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 25 2006
LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BEEN INDICATING
INTERMITTENT APPEARANCES OF A BANDING EYE FEATURE. CONVECTIVE
BANDING HAS INCREASED AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF
DATA T-NUMBERS AND CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0/65 AND
T3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...AND ALSO A 25/2035Z
UW-CIMSS AMSU ESTIMATE OF 75 KT AND 975 MB.
THE SHORT TERM MOTION OF EMILIA HAS BEEN 355/12. HOWEVER...TRENDING
THROUGH ALL THE WIGGLES AND WOBBLES OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS YIELDS A
SMOOTHER MOTION OF 345/10 KT...WHICH HAS BEEN USED FOR THIS
ADVISORY. UNFORTUNATELY...EVEN THAT MOTION...IF CONTINUED FOR THE
NEXT 9 HOURS...WOULD BRING THE CENTER OF EMILIA VERY CLOSE TO CABO
SAN LAZARO MEXICO. HOWEVER...WITH AN OFFSHORE WIND FLOW EXPECTED...
THE CURRENT TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO
BAHIA MAGDALENA SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT. THERE ARE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY BY 12-18 HOURS...AND THEN BE STEERED
MORE WESTWARD BY THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO
THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL POSITION... AND IS
IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE.
EMILIA HAS PERHAPS ANOTHER 6-9 HOURS OF POSSIBLE STRENGTHENING AND
IT COULD REACH MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THAT TIME WHILE IT
REMAINS OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER. HOWEVER...BY 12 HOURS EMILIA
WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-24C SSTS AND SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
...WITH MORE RAPID WEAKENING EXPECTED BY THE 24-HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL...WHICH SHOWS EXPECTED DISSIPATION OF
EMILIA BY 60 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 26/0300Z 22.9N 111.0W 60 KT
12HR VT 26/1200Z 24.3N 112.7W 55 KT
24HR VT 27/0000Z 25.7N 114.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 27/1200Z 26.5N 115.2W 35 KT
48HR VT 28/0000Z 27.1N 116.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 29/0000Z 27.6N 118.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Almost a hurricane.Will it get to hurricane status briefly before it hits cooler waters?
WTPZ41 KNHC 260254
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 25 2006
LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BEEN INDICATING
INTERMITTENT APPEARANCES OF A BANDING EYE FEATURE. CONVECTIVE
BANDING HAS INCREASED AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF
DATA T-NUMBERS AND CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0/65 AND
T3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...AND ALSO A 25/2035Z
UW-CIMSS AMSU ESTIMATE OF 75 KT AND 975 MB.
THE SHORT TERM MOTION OF EMILIA HAS BEEN 355/12. HOWEVER...TRENDING
THROUGH ALL THE WIGGLES AND WOBBLES OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS YIELDS A
SMOOTHER MOTION OF 345/10 KT...WHICH HAS BEEN USED FOR THIS
ADVISORY. UNFORTUNATELY...EVEN THAT MOTION...IF CONTINUED FOR THE
NEXT 9 HOURS...WOULD BRING THE CENTER OF EMILIA VERY CLOSE TO CABO
SAN LAZARO MEXICO. HOWEVER...WITH AN OFFSHORE WIND FLOW EXPECTED...
THE CURRENT TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO
BAHIA MAGDALENA SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT. THERE ARE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY BY 12-18 HOURS...AND THEN BE STEERED
MORE WESTWARD BY THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO
THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL POSITION... AND IS
IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE.
EMILIA HAS PERHAPS ANOTHER 6-9 HOURS OF POSSIBLE STRENGTHENING AND
IT COULD REACH MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THAT TIME WHILE IT
REMAINS OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER. HOWEVER...BY 12 HOURS EMILIA
WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-24C SSTS AND SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
...WITH MORE RAPID WEAKENING EXPECTED BY THE 24-HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL...WHICH SHOWS EXPECTED DISSIPATION OF
EMILIA BY 60 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 26/0300Z 22.9N 111.0W 60 KT
12HR VT 26/1200Z 24.3N 112.7W 55 KT
24HR VT 27/0000Z 25.7N 114.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 27/1200Z 26.5N 115.2W 35 KT
48HR VT 28/0000Z 27.1N 116.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 29/0000Z 27.6N 118.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Almost a hurricane.Will it get to hurricane status briefly before it hits cooler waters?
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145950
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
793
WTPZ31 KNHC 261138
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006
500 AM PDT WED JUL 26 2006
...EMILIA PARALLELING BAJA CALIFORNIA...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
REPORTED ALONG THE COAST...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM CABO SAN LUCAS TO PUNTA EUGENIA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.9 WEST OR ABOUT
75 MILES...120 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO. THIS IS
ALSO ABOUT 290 MILES...470 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PUNTA EUGENIA
MEXICO.
EMILIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...EMILIA WILL CONTINUE TO PARALLEL THE WEST COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER. A FEW HOURS AGO...PUERTO CORTES MEXICO REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 43 MPH...70 KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 55 MPH...89
KM/HR.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.
EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO
4 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
REPEATING THE 500 AM PDT POSITION...24.1 N...112.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
WTPZ31 KNHC 261138
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006
500 AM PDT WED JUL 26 2006
...EMILIA PARALLELING BAJA CALIFORNIA...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
REPORTED ALONG THE COAST...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM CABO SAN LUCAS TO PUNTA EUGENIA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.9 WEST OR ABOUT
75 MILES...120 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO. THIS IS
ALSO ABOUT 290 MILES...470 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PUNTA EUGENIA
MEXICO.
EMILIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...EMILIA WILL CONTINUE TO PARALLEL THE WEST COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER. A FEW HOURS AGO...PUERTO CORTES MEXICO REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 43 MPH...70 KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 55 MPH...89
KM/HR.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.
EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO
4 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
REPEATING THE 500 AM PDT POSITION...24.1 N...112.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145950
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
266
WTPZ41 KNHC 262032
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006
200 PM PDT WED JUL 26 2006
EMILIA IS FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING UNDER THE INHIBITING
INFLUENCE OF 22C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. STABLE STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE BECOMING ENTRAINED INTO THE CIRCULATION AND CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 55 KT...WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE
DATA-T NUMBERS AND THE CURRENT INTENSITIES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.
AS A RESULT OF COOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE AIR MASS...EMILIA IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT RAPIDLY TO A REMNANT LOW IN
36 HOURS.
EMILIA CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 320/10. THE
CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH AND A
WEAK TROUGH TO THE WEST. TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE
SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY PACKAGE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REASONING
REMAINS THE SAME. A GENERAL NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS IN 72 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF PUERTO SAN
ANDRESITO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 26/2100Z 25.5N 114.4W 55 KT
12HR VT 27/0600Z 26.3N 115.7W 45 KT
24HR VT 27/1800Z 27.2N 117.3W 30 KT
36HR VT 28/0600Z 27.7N 118.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 28/1800Z 28.2N 119.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
WTPZ41 KNHC 262032
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006
200 PM PDT WED JUL 26 2006
EMILIA IS FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING UNDER THE INHIBITING
INFLUENCE OF 22C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. STABLE STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE BECOMING ENTRAINED INTO THE CIRCULATION AND CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 55 KT...WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE
DATA-T NUMBERS AND THE CURRENT INTENSITIES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.
AS A RESULT OF COOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE AIR MASS...EMILIA IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT RAPIDLY TO A REMNANT LOW IN
36 HOURS.
EMILIA CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 320/10. THE
CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH AND A
WEAK TROUGH TO THE WEST. TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE
SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY PACKAGE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REASONING
REMAINS THE SAME. A GENERAL NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS IN 72 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF PUERTO SAN
ANDRESITO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 26/2100Z 25.5N 114.4W 55 KT
12HR VT 27/0600Z 26.3N 115.7W 45 KT
24HR VT 27/1800Z 27.2N 117.3W 30 KT
36HR VT 28/0600Z 27.7N 118.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 28/1800Z 28.2N 119.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145950
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
WTPZ41 KNHC 270246
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006
800 PM PDT WED JUL 26 2006
VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT THAT EMILIA CONTINUES
TO STRUGGLE WITH THE AFFECTS OF THE COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND THE STABLE MARINE LAYER. THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION IS
CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA ABOUT 60 NM NORTHWEST OF THE
CENTER. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS RANGE FROM 35 TO 55
KT...WITH FINAL T-NUMBERS DOWN TO 30 KT. CONSEQUENTLY...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 45 KT...WHICH MAY BE GENEROUS.
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE BECOMING A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS
AND DISSIPATING BY 48-72 HOURS.
A 2209Z MICROWAVE TRMM OVERPASS AND AN 1822Z AMSU-B IMAGE SUGGEST
THAT EMILIA HAS BEEN MOVING MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST
6 HOURS...AROUND 300/11. EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITHIN THE
LOW-TO-MID STEERING FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A
LITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.
ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 27/0300Z 25.8N 115.8W 45 KT
12HR VT 27/1200Z 26.6N 117.1W 35 KT
24HR VT 28/0000Z 27.2N 118.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 28/1200Z 27.6N 119.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006
800 PM PDT WED JUL 26 2006
VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT THAT EMILIA CONTINUES
TO STRUGGLE WITH THE AFFECTS OF THE COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND THE STABLE MARINE LAYER. THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION IS
CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA ABOUT 60 NM NORTHWEST OF THE
CENTER. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS RANGE FROM 35 TO 55
KT...WITH FINAL T-NUMBERS DOWN TO 30 KT. CONSEQUENTLY...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 45 KT...WHICH MAY BE GENEROUS.
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE BECOMING A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS
AND DISSIPATING BY 48-72 HOURS.
A 2209Z MICROWAVE TRMM OVERPASS AND AN 1822Z AMSU-B IMAGE SUGGEST
THAT EMILIA HAS BEEN MOVING MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST
6 HOURS...AROUND 300/11. EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITHIN THE
LOW-TO-MID STEERING FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A
LITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.
ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 27/0300Z 25.8N 115.8W 45 KT
12HR VT 27/1200Z 26.6N 117.1W 35 KT
24HR VT 28/0000Z 27.2N 118.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 28/1200Z 27.6N 119.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006
200 AM PDT THU JUL 27 2006
AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS...ABOUT 0130 UTC...SHOWED A FEW VECTORS OF
35 TO 40 KT WINDS. SINCE THEN...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED
SIGNIFICANTLY AND IT IS NOW SHAPELESS AND THE CYCLONE IS VOID OF
DEEP CONVECTION. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED
TO 30 KT. FURTHER WEAKENING OVER COOL WATER IS FORECAST.
EMILIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11
KNOTS. A TURN MORE TO THE WEST IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL DISSIPATION IN
A DAY OR TWO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 27/0900Z 26.4N 116.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 27/1800Z 27.2N 118.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 28/0600Z 27.5N 120.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 28/1800Z 27.5N 122.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Dissipation is imminent!!!!
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006
200 AM PDT THU JUL 27 2006
AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS...ABOUT 0130 UTC...SHOWED A FEW VECTORS OF
35 TO 40 KT WINDS. SINCE THEN...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED
SIGNIFICANTLY AND IT IS NOW SHAPELESS AND THE CYCLONE IS VOID OF
DEEP CONVECTION. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED
TO 30 KT. FURTHER WEAKENING OVER COOL WATER IS FORECAST.
EMILIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11
KNOTS. A TURN MORE TO THE WEST IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL DISSIPATION IN
A DAY OR TWO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 27/0900Z 26.4N 116.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 27/1800Z 27.2N 118.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 28/0600Z 27.5N 120.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 28/1800Z 27.5N 122.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Dissipation is imminent!!!!
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