Latest Update from ENSO Models=Neutral thru March 2007

[cycloneye]

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml

There were some rumors floating around about a possible El Nino showing it's head by late summer or fall but according to the models in this July update that is not the case.

[caneman]

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml

There were some rumors floating around about a possible El Nino showing it's head by late summer or fall but according to the models in this July update that is not the case.

Glad you posted this. Seems like every year around this time you get people getting all antsy and claiming El Nino, dust, etc.... Many of these same people site an active E.PAC as a reason why we will be inactive. I believe things are going along as usual. The E.Pac is busier in the beginning of the season as it usually is. People forget that thing usually explode in August and can go from very hostile to favorable conditions seemingly overnight.

[Aquawind]

Yep.. just a tad bit warm but not enough to declare anything but neutral. At this point it seems to be a moot point as far as this hurricane season is concerned. Better luck next year..

[HURAKAN]

The last EL NIÑO event was in 2002, should we be starting to think about another event in 2007, 2008, or 2009?

According to what I know, EL NIÑO comes around every 5 - 7 years.

[Aquawind]

The last EL NIÑO event was in 2002, should we be starting to think about another event in 2007, 2008, or 2009?

According to what I know, EL NIÑO comes around every 5 - 7 years.

I think so.. Maybe a real strong one as well according to some..

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... pper++nino

[cycloneye]

And if that occurs,the kids will be saying= boring,dud,season cancel etc..........

[HURAKAN]

:uarrow: And if that occurs,the kids will be saying= boring,dud,season cancel etc..........

That always comes when we don't have 3 storms in June and 5 in July!!!

[Cyclenall]

I'm not surprised by this. There are quite a few of people thinking a El Nino is coming soon but I think the next 6 months is going to be normal.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Anyway, aren't we supposed to be in a 20 Year Active Period?

[Jim Cantore]

Anyway, aren't we supposed to be in a 20 Year Active Period?

We dont really know, It could end this year or in 2050

and El Nino could form next week or 2009 for all we know

very bold to even try to forecast it I think.

[LarryWx]

I know that this isn't going to be popular here, but I'm still sticking with my 6/6 statement indicating my expectation of an El Nino, notwithstanding the fact that both NOAA and Australia are still going with neutral for the forseeable future.

7/06 is about over. 7/06 will mark the third straight month of a fairly solid -SOI. With that in mind and based on my statistical studies as well as upper subsurface equatorial Pacific temp.'s, I see no reason at this time to back away from my giving El Nino a 90% chance of forming by no later than OCT. This would require a trimonthly NINO 3.4 region SST anomaly of +0.5 or higher by no later than OCT (i.e. SEP-NOV avg.). I may even raise it to above 90% soon.

I educatedly guessed/predicted in mid June on another BB that there would only be 9 NS, 4 H, and 2 MH in 2006 based on my feeling that El Nino would start by this fall. Despite the fact that we're currently slightly ahead of average in #NS for 7/27 with two, I'm sticking with this educated guess. That is because of my analysis that has shown no lag on average between the onset of El Nino by fall and that year's hurricane season. I've also studied the SOI. My study of pretty solidly negative SOI months has shown little to essentially no lag between solidly -SOI July's (especially more negative than -9) and the following August's as well as overall season's overall # NS/H on average. July's SOI shouldn't end up more negative than -9. However, it won't be too far away. Let's see what happens this hurricane season.

[LarryWx]

Using my El Nino analyses as well as other info, here are my predictions for the 2006 season (made on 6/19 on another BB) as far as hits on the U.S.:

Overall #'s

NS: 9
H: 4
MH:2

NS by region:

EC 1
FL 0
GC 3

H by region:

EC 1
FL 0
GC 1

MH by region:

None in any region

I'm using the following definitions/criteria:

- NS = named storms (TS’s, hurricanes, and subtropical storms) that must be first designated by the NHC as a TD+ by 12/31/06 anywhere in ATL basin

- H = hurricanes that must be first designated by the NHC as a TD+ by 12/31/06 anywhere in ATL basin

- To count as a hit, the center must cross land (including islands) while the storm is still classified as a TS+ or subtropical storm and/or sustained TS+ force winds must occur on land (including islands). So, an actual center crossing isn’t necessary. However, the center must pass within ~60 nautical miles of the coast to have a chance of being counted.

-A storm’s center must go back into water prior to coming back onto or near land as a TS+ to get credit for a 2nd region's hit.

- I will try to count only one region per hit based on the exact eye/center crossing, even if two adjacent regions experience TS+ force winds. However, a landfall right on a border would count as 0.5 hits in each region

- EC= U.S. East Coast hits, which include hits from just north of the FL/GA border to ME. Canada is excluded.

- FL= FL East Coast hits, which include hits on the FL Keys and also any hit from FL Bay but exclude hits on the FL Gulf coast.

- GC= U.S. Gulf Coast hits, which include hits on the Florida's Gulf coast but exclude hits on the FL Keys and as well as from FL Bay; this region runs to the TX/Mexican border

- A storm that crosses the Keys (FL hit) could subsequently cross the FL W coast and therefore also count as a separate GC hit since there’s water to cross between the hits.

- A storm that crosses SE Canada (Mexico) close enough to ME (S TX) can still count as a full EC (GC) hit.

- A NS that later hits land as a TD or STD will not count as a hit.


I counted Beryl as an EC NS hit. Alberto was a GC NS hit. Here is where we stand as of 7/26 for 2006:

Overall #'s

NS: 2
H: 0

NS by region:

EC 1
FL 0
GC 1

H/MH by region:

EC 0
FL 0
GC 0