Wave in Central Caribbean

#161 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Jul 26, 2006 12:35 am

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:99L will soon be the new name of this thread.

perhaps but it still has a way to go and it needs quite a bit more moisture and convectioni around the Low which seems to be dissipating somewhat...

I think the latest NHC TWO is the perfect way to discuss this situation right now...

MortisFL · #162 Postby **MortisFL** » Wed Jul 26, 2006 12:56 am

From 205 discussion

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 22N MOVING WEST NEAR 15-20 KT.
THE AREA OF LOW PRES THAT HAS BEEN ALONG THE WAVE OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS IS NO LONGER EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE
AVAILABLE DATA. HOWEVER...THE WAVE STILL REMAINS WELL-DEFINED
WITH A TITLED INVERTED V-SHAPE EVIDENT. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS ALSO
INCREASED SLIGHTLY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

HurricaneHunter914 · #163 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Wed Jul 26, 2006 2:48 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

Looks like there is something else to watch about ESE of this Wave.

#164 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Wed Jul 26, 2006 3:05 am

This area looks much better this morning. The Middle and Northern Extents of the wave have fired up a lot more convection but, as the 205am noting that the low level ciculation that was apparent before is no longer found.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rb.html

Thunder44 · #165 Postby **Thunder44** » Wed Jul 26, 2006 4:10 am

138
ABNT20 KNHC 260905
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT WED JUL 26 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE WILL LIKELY BRING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS TO THE
LESSER ANTILLES TODAY AND THURSDAY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA

#166 Postby **abajan** » Wed Jul 26, 2006 5:23 am

Last night, we got some showers and a bit of thunder & lightning from this.

Weatherboy1 · #167 Postby **Weatherboy1** » Wed Jul 26, 2006 6:42 am

Doubt it'll develop with that TUTT upper low to its NW/N. It's imparting some shear on the wave ... that's why the convection is flaring off to the east. You can see in this shear map that the general vicinity is yellow, indicating moderate shear.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

So until that pattern changes, I don't see this turning into a TD.

#168 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 26, 2006 7:03 am

A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W S OF 25N MOVING WEST
NEAR 15-20 KT. THE AREA OF LOW PRES THAT HAS BEEN ALONG THE WAVE
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IS NO LONGER EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND THE AVAILABLE DATA. HOWEVER...THE WAVE STILL REMAINS
WELL-DEFINED WITH A TITLED INVERTED V-SHAPE EVIDENT. SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS ALSO INCREASED SLIGHTLY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME DUE TO UNFAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL WINDS.

8 AM Discussion.

boca · #169 Postby **boca** » Wed Jul 26, 2006 7:54 am

This is just a wave and it won't become 99L in the near term until shear relaxes from the tutt.

MortisFL · #170 Postby **MortisFL** » Wed Jul 26, 2006 7:58 am

06 GFS takes the wave past the islands, then the northern extent of the wave becomes the dominant feature as it races towards the bahamas. GFS develops another wave in the central atlantic and it follows almost identically the same track.
I think the best path for less hostile conditions would be through the caribbean over time as some of the shear forecasts indicate.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif
TPC's 72 hr forecast kinda leaves open that the wave could be either in the atlantic or caribbean, whichever feature survives.

#171 Postby **bvigal** » Wed Jul 26, 2006 7:59 am

Running loop of Floater 2 and turning on windmap options gives a very good depiction of winds at various levels along this wave.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rb.html

We are going to have some weather from this, mostly a concern to mariners, with a big swell coming in and probably a wind surge. How much precip we actually get will depend, as it has the last 2 months, upon our 'friend' La Soufriere! Folks here beginning to feel a "cry wolf" syndrome, as these waves come in and produce little or none of the expected precipitation. (Personally, I'd welcome a good bunch of rain, as the cistern is nearly dry again - very unusual for this time of year! Looks like a $300 load of water is in the cards soon.)

#172 Postby **storms in NC** » Wed Jul 26, 2006 8:07 am

this is true but it has more showers with it than it had a few days ago. I think it will hang on. Why not it has all the way across the Atlantic. it may come to a craw till one of the ridges let up.

Extremeweatherguy · #173 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Jul 26, 2006 8:29 am

JB's morning discussion thinks the wave will enhance rain chances over Fl this weekend and will then move into the Gulf next week. He also thinks this could have a chance to develop once the shear dies down. One thing is for sure...I am not doen watching this yet! A FL to Gulf path reminds me of many bad storms last year. Remember Katrina and Rita? :eek:

BensonTCwatcher · #174 Postby **BensonTCwatcher** » Wed Jul 26, 2006 8:37 am

Lots of new convection. I still cant pick up any westerlies at the low level yet. But the wave is looking primed once a circulation closes off. Lots of 25-30 kt shear in place though. One little pocket of decreasing shear if it moves NW a bit......hmmm

Looks like it keeps moving west for the time being to me.

boca · #175 Postby **boca** » Wed Jul 26, 2006 8:44 am

I posted earlier yesterday to watch for the flare up and thats what its doing. As weatherboy pointed out this won't be a depression until the tutt goes away.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

#176 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Jul 26, 2006 8:51 am

boca wrote:I posted earlier yesterday to watch for the flare up and thats what its doing. As weatherboy pointed out this won't be a depression until the tutt goes away.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

TUTT has got yet another one in its hands it looks like..

watch for the TUTT to begin weakening over the next 2 weeks.

kenl01 · #177 Postby **kenl01** » Wed Jul 26, 2006 9:39 am

It's possible this wave might bring some rain to the Carolina coast by Sunday or Monday as it turns north later in the forecast period. Jeff Masters had a pretty good summary below:

A tropical wave a few hundred miles east of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands is moving west to west-northwest at 15-20 mph. The amount of thunderstorm activity associated with this wave has increased over the past day, as the dry Saharan air surrounding the wave has gradually diluted. However, the wave is now under 30 knots of vertical wind shear. This wind shear is being created by the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico. This low is not expected to move much the next five days, and should continue to create hostile wind shear over the wave. The wave will spread showers and gusty winds to Puerto Rico on Thursday, and the Bahama Islands on Friday and Saturday. By Saturday, as the wave approaches Florida, it will not be as close to the upper-level low, and the shear may lessen, potentially allowing some development. The wave is expected to turn north towards the Carolinas and not enter the Gulf of Mexico.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

Extremeweatherguy · #178 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Jul 26, 2006 9:44 am

kenl01 wrote:It's possible this wave might bring some rain to the Carolina coast by Sunday or Monday as it turns north later in the forecast period. Jeff Masters had a pretty good summary below:

A tropical wave a few hundred miles east of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands is moving west to west-northwest at 15-20 mph. The amount of thunderstorm activity associated with this wave has increased over the past day, as the dry Saharan air surrounding the wave has gradually diluted. However, the wave is now under 30 knots of vertical wind shear. This wind shear is being created by the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico. This low is not expected to move much the next five days, and should continue to create hostile wind shear over the wave. The wave will spread showers and gusty winds to Puerto Rico on Thursday, and the Bahama Islands on Friday and Saturday. By Saturday, as the wave approaches Florida, it will not be as close to the upper-level low, and the shear may lessen, potentially allowing some development. The wave is expected to turn north towards the Carolinas and not enter the Gulf of Mexico.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

I will have to disagree with Jeff this time. I still think this one reaches the Gulf and does not turn north into the Carolinas. I could be wrong, however, but I am not willing to change my prediction right now. I'll be convinced only when I see the northward turn occur.

#179 Postby **storms in NC** » Wed Jul 26, 2006 10:05 am

If you will look at the last few frames you will see that there has been a few wobbles to the north. OM I hate useing that word. :wink:

Extremeweatherguy · #180 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Jul 26, 2006 10:16 am

storms in NC wrote:If you will look at the last few frames you will see that there has been a few wobbles to the north. OM I hate useing that word.

But also remember we are not looking at a developed "system" right now. Any northward motion of the convection is likely just the result of shear or northward T-storm development. What this is right now is just an open wave. On the surface analysis, you can see it extends all the way south to South America and north into the Atlantic.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_06Z.

In the coming days a better defined and actual "system" could develop anywhere along the wave axis.

Wave in Central Caribbean

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