98L invest,W.GOM,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

[Thunder44]

Surface obs don't seem to show the surface low inland anymore and HPC has taken it off it latest surface analysis map. Looks like another MLC developing offshore SE of Galveston Bay. I give it .01% chance of developing to the surface.

I noticed that!!!! that blob offshore looks impressive and I see hints of a rotation.
Add that to the sustained 30mph winds in Galveston. hmmm......

Yes, but Galveston obs are still reporting South winds. We need winds to come out more of Northerly or westerly direction for any signs of a surface circulation.

[HouTXmetro]

I will have to check the bouys in other locations.

[caneman]

I will have to check the bouys in other locations.

Wow!!!!!!!!!!!! Take a look at recent buoy reports some gusts as much as 55 mph and many sustaind at 30-40 mph. This sure looks like it should be classfied to me. And looking at visible it sure looks like an MLC working its way down.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search. ... E&dist=250

[HouTXmetro]

I will have to check the bouys in other locations.

Wow!!!!!!!!!!!! Take a look at recent buoy reports some gusts as much as 55 mph and many sustaind at 30-40 mph. This sure looks like it should be classfied to me. And looking at visible it sure looks like an MLC working its way down.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search. ... E&dist=250

pressures are rising near some of the bouys so I doubt another surface low is developing yet.

[HURAKAN]

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

Then click on the image on the left, IMPRESSIVE BLOWOUT!!!

[Air Force Met]

I will have to check the bouys in other locations.

Wow!!!!!!!!!!!! Take a look at recent buoy reports some gusts as much as 55 mph and many sustaind at 30-40 mph. This sure looks like it should be classfied to me. And looking at visible it sure looks like an MLC working its way down.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search. ... E&dist=250

How can you classify a system when there is no sfc circulation? All you have is a strong pressure gradient. If you do that...then you will have to classify every tropical wave that moves through the E.Car. Just because strong straight line winds are present doesn't mean you have a sfc low...which is the criteria for classifying a system.

And no...the MLC will not work its way down...for the reasons I stated in the post this morning. Go back a couple of pages. MLC's don't work their way down into a strong pressure gradient in straight-line flow.

[stormie_skies]

Is the low moving fast enough to push this stuff outta here anytime soon?

Looking at radar and visible, it seems as if that one continuous blob off of Corpus is still there after 12/16 hrs and looks to be expanding inland...

There is LOTS of sfc coonvergence out there...both speed and directional...and there is a good vort max/upper low moving through on top of it. Looks like the bulk of it will land around lunch time and into mid afternoon.

Seriously? Last time we had flooding rains they fell in the morning, and I got flooded out of work (the streets over here - SE Gulf Fwy - flood sooo easily). Now I'm starting to worry about getting flooded in this time (and God knows my employer would rather have his fingers chopped off than let us go home!)....

[Yankeegirl]

Its flooded here, and I was supposed to be at work at 930, but I am still here waiting for the rains to let up... and it has started to come down again....

[wxman57]

Before calling this a TD/TS, you might look at a surface analysis:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/98Le.gif

The low center is well inland about 100 miles west of Houston. Southerly winds of 20-30 kts prevail all along the TX coast due to high pressure to the east (strong gradient AF Met mentioned). These squalls can easily produce wind gusts to 50-60 kts offshore, but that doesn't make the system a TS. Any tropical wave can produce 50-60 kt wind gusts in squalls.

[Yankeegirl]

OK... so do we get more rain later since it is inland? or is this the last of it?

[Thunder44]

Before calling this a TD/TS, you might look at a surface analysis:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/98Le.gif

The low center is well inland about 100 miles west of Houston. Southerly winds of 20-30 kts prevail all along the TX coast due to high pressure to the east (strong gradient AF Met mentioned). These squalls can easily produce wind gusts to 50-60 kts offshore, but that doesn't make the system a TS. Any tropical wave can produce 50-60 kt wind gusts in squalls.

I don't see much signs of the low center inland anymore but I agree with AFM.

[caneman]

Before calling this a TD/TS, you might look at a surface analysis:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/98Le.gif

The low center is well inland about 100 miles west of Houston. Southerly winds of 20-30 kts prevail all along the TX coast due to high pressure to the east (strong gradient AF Met mentioned). These squalls can easily produce wind gusts to 50-60 kts offshore, but that doesn't make the system a TS. Any tropical wave can produce 50-60 kt wind gusts in squalls.

Well you and AFM make good points. I should have read back a couple pages which I did not. These Blogs can get so long that you just don't have time to read every one. Still brings up an interesting question though. Why wasn't an STDS issued? I've seen lesser storms get this classification.

[Stratosphere747]

Because there was never a closed low at the surface, meeting the critera set forth by the NHC....

[tailgater]

Before calling this a TD/TS, you might look at a surface analysis:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/98Le.gif

The low center is well inland about 100 miles west of Houston. Southerly winds of 20-30 kts prevail all along the TX coast due to high pressure to the east (strong gradient AF Met mentioned). These squalls can easily produce wind gusts to 50-60 kts offshore, but that doesn't make the system a TS. Any tropical wave can produce 50-60 kt wind gusts in squalls.

This is just a question but Can the NHC declare this or any other system over land a tropical depression, it seems like I remember them doing just that about 6 or 7 years back with a system over the Yucatan. I know they won't with this one but there is at least weak surface circulation heading further inland and I'm pretty sure it's tropical in nature.

[Air Force Met]

Because there was never a closed low at the surface, meeting the critera set forth by the NHC....

What he said.

[Air Force Met]

Before calling this a TD/TS, you might look at a surface analysis:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/98Le.gif

The low center is well inland about 100 miles west of Houston. Southerly winds of 20-30 kts prevail all along the TX coast due to high pressure to the east (strong gradient AF Met mentioned). These squalls can easily produce wind gusts to 50-60 kts offshore, but that doesn't make the system a TS. Any tropical wave can produce 50-60 kt wind gusts in squalls.

This is just a question but Can the NHC declare this or any other system over land a tropical depression, it seems like I remember them doing just that about 6 or 7 years back with a system over the Yucatan. I know they won't with this one but there is at least weak surface circulation heading further inland and I'm pretty sure it's tropical in nature.

Over the Yuk is different. If there is a closed low and it's tropical...and it will move back over water....then sure they might. Here...no way.

[caneman]

Because there was never a closed low at the surface, meeting the critera set forth by the NHC....

Well that is cruddy criteria then as this system has far more wind than many so called closed low criteria classification systems have had. A tropical disturbance should be just that "a Tropical disturbance" and not necessairly have criteria to fulfill. Might help keep people safe.

[Extremeweatherguy]

shouldn't there be a wind advisory or high wind warning for Galveston? 25mph+ sustained winds and gusts to 35mph+ are occuring in lots of that area, and at the immediate coast winds have been up to near 35-40mph sustained with gusts to 50-60mph! I don't see how this is not considered a HIGH WIND event! It has been going on for a good 3-5 hours so far.

Here is the latest wind report from Galveston Scholes field:

Wind Speed: S 25 G 35 MPH

[tailgater]

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... al/284.jpg

[wxman22]

But wasnt Grace classified as a tropical storm even though the recon did not find a LLC?....