98L invest,W.GOM,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

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Stratosphere747
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#301 Postby Stratosphere747 » Wed Jul 26, 2006 10:09 am

caneman wrote:
Stratosphere747 wrote:Because there was never a closed low at the surface, meeting the critera set forth by the NHC....


Well that is cruddy criteria then as this system has far more wind than many so called closed low criteria classification systems have had. A tropical disturbance should be just that "a Tropical disturbance" and not necessairly have criteria to fulfill. Might help keep people safe.


Well this is a "tropical disturbance" just not a "tropical depression"

The key wording that even took me a few years to understand, is "closed low" Without this, there is not a depression.

It does not take away from the significance of this system. Only a designation that some feel necessary to justify what it is producing.

Not a knock on you or others that keep thinking this needs to be given a classification or name. The reality is, it is producing effects that rival a weak TD or TS, just without meeting a certain and defined criteria.
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#302 Postby teal61 » Wed Jul 26, 2006 10:11 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:shouldn't there be a wind advisory or high wind warning for Galveston? 25mph+ sustained winds and gusts to 35mph+ are occuring in lots of that area, and at the immediate coast winds have been up to near 35-40mph sustained with gusts to 50-60mph! I don't see how this is not considered a HIGH WIND event! It has been going on for a good 3-5 hours so far.

Here is the latest wind report from Galveston Scholes field:

Wind Speed: S 25 G 35 MPH


Lots of low level moisture being transported into SE Texas. Classified system or not the result is the same. Lots of rain and gusty winds.
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#303 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Jul 26, 2006 10:12 am

teal61 wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:shouldn't there be a wind advisory or high wind warning for Galveston? 25mph+ sustained winds and gusts to 35mph+ are occuring in lots of that area, and at the immediate coast winds have been up to near 35-40mph sustained with gusts to 50-60mph! I don't see how this is not considered a HIGH WIND event! It has been going on for a good 3-5 hours so far.

Here is the latest wind report from Galveston Scholes field:

Wind Speed: S 25 G 35 MPH


Lots of low level moisture being transported into SE Texas. Classified system or not the result is the same. Lots of rain and gusty winds.


Very good post.
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#304 Postby caneman » Wed Jul 26, 2006 10:12 am

Not taken as a knock. To me - A Tropical Disturbance is just just that a disturbance. I'd say this fits the Websters definition of disturbance. This is my opinion and I'll stick to it.
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#305 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Jul 26, 2006 10:13 am

Stratosphere747 wrote:
caneman wrote:
Stratosphere747 wrote:Because there was never a closed low at the surface, meeting the critera set forth by the NHC....


Well that is cruddy criteria then as this system has far more wind than many so called closed low criteria classification systems have had. A tropical disturbance should be just that "a Tropical disturbance" and not necessairly have criteria to fulfill. Might help keep people safe.


Well this is a "tropical disturbance" just not a "tropical depression"

The key wording that even took me a few years to understand, is "closed low" Without this, there is not a depression.

It does not take away from the significance of this system. Only a designation that some feel necessary to justify what it is producing.

Not a knock on you or others that keep thinking this needs to be given a classification or name. The reality is, it is producing effects that rival a weak TD or TS, just without meeting a certain and defined criteria.


Very good post Stratosphere747.
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#306 Postby tailgater » Wed Jul 26, 2006 10:18 am

tailgater wrote:http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/data/tropical/284.jpg

I would call that a closed low, but it will not become a TD because it's inland and headed furter inland
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#307 Postby teal61 » Wed Jul 26, 2006 10:24 am

I suppose using the plot that 57 posted earlier you could argue that there is a closed low. The problem is its over land and for the most part always was, if it were 100 miles to the SE you would probably have a depression.

I've seen named tropical storms pass near me with less effects than this has had. Heck, I've had more rain from this than when Rita came ashore.
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#308 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jul 26, 2006 10:25 am

wxman22 wrote:But wasnt Grace classified as a tropical storm even though the recon did not find a LLC?....


Quite true, but that doesn't mean it's correct to call a tropical wave a TS. The offshore rigs in the NW Gulf were experiencing TS-force winds with the wave, so the NHC incorrectly upgraded it to a TS without waiting for recon to confirm an LLC or not. Once named, it was too late to say "oops!".
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#309 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Jul 26, 2006 10:27 am

I believe recon did make a vortex fix with Grace (although, it most certainly was likely one of those mini-vorticies that often spin up, since the "center" kept jumping by about 100NM on each "fix")
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#310 Postby wxman22 » Wed Jul 26, 2006 10:28 am

Even though Technickly this is not a depresion or Tropical Storm were still getting the same effects as if there were a depresion or storm. The only thing diffrent is that theres no closed low & no organized wind feild. But other than that were still seeing winds that we would see in a weak tropical storm and the same rain amounts.
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#311 Postby teal61 » Wed Jul 26, 2006 10:33 am

Hey 57 if you don't mind could you post an updated map with the plots. There seems to be some hint of rotation in the rain between Victoria and Houston and I was wondering if that was the weak center moving NE or is it still further west. Can't tell at all by look at the satellite animations.

Boy the moderate rains have really increased over the northern suburbs of Houston in the last hour.
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#312 Postby curtadams » Wed Jul 26, 2006 10:35 am

It's not a cyclone but only on a definitional technicality. It does have a closed circulation (albeit well onshore), it does have TD winds and probably TS winds, and it's certainly warm-core. Where the surface low formed is a technicality. Had it formed offshore and moved onshore this would be a TD/TS - even though it would be exactly the same system. People are experiencing a TD/TS because this is a TD/TS in every meaningful way.
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#313 Postby teal61 » Wed Jul 26, 2006 10:48 am

I live a couple of miles east of Hooks airport and for lack of a better term we just had a pretty good "squall" move through. Heavy rain and wind gusts in excess of 30 mph with a couple probably near 40. The rain has slacked off a little so I need to run out and start the pool draining, its also overflowing.
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#314 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Wed Jul 26, 2006 10:48 am

What a shame. If only "Chris" was over water longer.
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#315 Postby CajunMama » Wed Jul 26, 2006 10:50 am

Yankeegirl has posted road closures in USA Weather for Houston. If you go to the cameras link you can see some of the flooding occurring there.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=87300

And just to get it off my chest...it's NOT "Chris". Please call it by the correct name.

Edit to include the link...darn my forgetfulness!
Last edited by CajunMama on Wed Jul 26, 2006 10:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#316 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Wed Jul 26, 2006 10:53 am

Yankeegirl has posted road closures in USA Weather for Houston. If you go to the cameras link you can see some of the flooding occurring there.

And just to get it off my chest...it's NOT "Chris". Please call it by the correct name.


I know but this Invest tried so hard to become a TC and when it finally got its closed low, it was too late. So this technically is some sort of a TD/TS but not officially. Funny how they upgraded a disturbance without an LLC (Grace) and they didn't upgrade a disturbance with an LLC (98L).
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#317 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Wed Jul 26, 2006 10:57 am

98L was the best looking Unamed Invest and definitly looked better than Grace.
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#318 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Jul 26, 2006 11:28 am

An unnamed tropical storm, perhaps?
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#319 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Wed Jul 26, 2006 11:31 am

Maybe in the Post Season Reports they might call it the Unamed tropical Storm, since this indeed had an LLC and TS force winds.
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#320 Postby JonathanBelles » Wed Jul 26, 2006 11:31 am

2 in 2 years, The NHC is slaking
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