Wave in Central Caribbean

[ThunderMate]

I will tell you one thing, this thing looks nothing like it did yesterday...it really has blown up in terms of what it had yesterday....however the LLC needs to come ack or reform if it is going to develope....

[HurricaneHunter914]

If you read the TWO, it seems like the NHC has lost a little interest in this wave.

[Extremeweatherguy]

If you read the TWO, it seems like the NHC has lost a little interest in this wave.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 261508
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED JUL 26 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS IS NOW CENTERED BETWEEN HOUSTON
AND SAN ANTONIO. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND IS
FAR ENOUGH INLAND THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...IT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND
GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS...WESTERN LOUISIANA...
AND THE ADJACENT WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A TROPICAL WAVE JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS MOVING WESTWARD
AT ABOUT 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PRODUCE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

No. All they are saying is that through tomorrow the winds should be too unfavorable for development. That doesn't mean it still can not develop later on.

[storms in NC]

They have to report for what is for today. It is in some shear but that is why I think you will see more of a turn to the North to leave the shear. The west movment will end up going WNW. Just what I think. Which is not much. Just don't come this way from Aug 1 -8th. Going fishing while Hubby is gone to Gremany.

[HurricaneHunter914]

This is still really far out so it can Hit anywhere, but right now I'm thinking that if this does make it across the Caribbean this might eventually become a Florida or GOM threat.

Edit: You know what would be funny? If 98L and this wave switched places, that way the weak wave hit TX and the Strong Disturbance develops.

[AJC3]

I don't see the turning I saw yesterday,but I like how the Key West NWS explains what could happen.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OUT IN THE ATLANTIC JUST WEST OF LONGITUDE 50W...HAS NO CONVECTION WITH IT BUT STILL SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC SWIRL AND ITS AMPLITUDE STRETCHES NORTH TO 20N AND SOUTH TO ALMOST 10N. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS TRACK THIS FEATURE INTO THE SE BAHAMAS...AND BEGIN TO AMPLIFY IT OVER THE NW BAHAMAS SATURDAY. MODELS SUGGEST SOME PRECEDING MOISTURE MAY COME INTO THE KEYS FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN THE PATTERN BECOMES VERY MURKY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS TO WHETHER THE SYSTEM WILL SIMPLY PROGRESS WEST OVER FLORIDA AND THE KEYS...OR WILL SPLIT AND TURN NORTH ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. I WILL KEEP A PERSISTENCE FORECAST GOING AT THIS TIME...BUT INDICATE A TURN OF WINDS TO SE ON SUNDAY AS A BEGRUDGING ACKNOWLEDGEMENT THAT A WAVE OR TROUGH MAY PASS THE AREA. THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON DEVELOPMENT, TIMING, AND PLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM AT THIS POINT TO BE SPECIFIC.

This is out of Melbourne:

SAT-MON...FCST BECOMES A BIT MUDDLED/UNCERTAIN THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A TROPICAL WAVE PUSHING TWD THE STATE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TUTT LOW...BUT HAS TRENDED FARTHER WEST AND A LITTLE LESS AMPLIFIED...BRINGING THE SYSTEM OVER THE STATE INSTEAD OF BENDING IT NWD JUST TO OUR EAST. ON THE OTHER HAND...FOR SAT THE ECM SHOWS LESS OF A SFC REFLECTION AND ASCD MOISTURE INCREASE...THEN FOLLOWS IT UP WITH A FAIRLY STOUT SURGE OF DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. ALSO OF NOTE IS THE TENDENCY FOR MED RANGE SYSTEMS FAILING TO SPIN UP AND TRENDING FARTHER AND FARTHER SOUTH AS A LOW AMPLITUDE OPEN WAVE. IN SHORT...WHATEVER APPROACHES FL COULD PASS DIRECTLY OVER FL...OR TO THE SOUTH...OR TO THE EAST. GIVEN THAT THIS IS IN THE D4-5 TIME FRAME...WOULD LIKE TO SEE A LITTLE MORE CONSENSUS IN THE MED RANGE GUIDANCE BEFORE COMMITTING TO RAISING POPS UP. FCST
WILL STICK WITH MID RANGE SCT POPS FOR NOW.

Miami NWS wasn't detailed about it so I didn't post on it.

The new 12Z GFS has trended strongly toward the EURO solutions, particularly yesterday's ECM in showing a weaker, flatter system passing farther to the south. The NAM12/DGEX seems to be the outlier here in curving the system northward near the FL east coast.

The trend for the GFS over the last several days now has been successively farther south and less amplified. Earlier runs were similar to the 06Z DGEX - but now it has gone from bending the system northward east of Florida (2 days ago) to bending it northward at the longitude of FL (yesterday) to pushing it westward across extreme south FL/keys/straits. Not a surprising trend at all.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Great, Florida is now the possible target of this system.

[AJC3]

Great, Florida is now the possible target of this system.

Keep in mind this system is likely to be nothing more than an open wave. Conditions don't looke terribly great over the next few days. The western vort lobe of the large upper trough centered along 30N between 50 and 65W is forecast to fracture off and retrograde westward near/ahead of the wave.

Could vent some convection but looks like a less-than-favorable upper profile for TC development.

[HurricaneHunter914]

I hope so, I just want the rain.

[jlauderdal]

Great, Florida is now the possible target of this system.

its not like we will be under attack from deep low pressure

[HurricaneHunter914]

Well we don't know that yet. This wave still has a long way to go and the shear near FL is pretty low and the SSTs are high enough for tropical development. For all we know this might be a Home grown thing.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

[jlauderdal]

Well we don't know that yet. This wave still has a long way to go and the shear near FL is pretty low and the SSTs are high enough for tropical development. For all we know this might be a Home grown thing.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

look at AJC3's comments about any future development, he knows alot mor about it than you or me and most anybody else on this site. there isn't anything to get worried about.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Yeah, but you just never know what might happen.

[Rainband]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... &version=0

This is interesting

[AJC3]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=TBWAFDTBW&version=0

This is interesting

Tampa's discussion was based upon the 00Z-06Z GFS, whereas the 12Z GFS doesn't bring the wave north into FL anymore. He was buying into the wave being able to break through the ridge - obviously I wasn't...

AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
245 PM EDT WED JUL 26 2006

.DISCUSSION...

...WEEKEND POSSIBLY LOOKING A LITTLE DRIER AS A TROPICAL WAVE IS
FORECAST TO PASS SOUTH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

<snip>

.THU-SUN...DLM RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS NORTH TO A POSN NR THE FLA-GA BORDER
DURING THIS PERIOD. WRN VORTLOBE OF THE LARGE TUTT CELL CTRD ALONG
30N BTWN 50-65W IS FCST TO BREAK OFF AND RETROGRADE WSW-WD TWD THE
BAHAMAS...WITH SUBSIDENT WRN FLANK FCST TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE CWA
BY SAT AFTN AND CONTINUING THRU SUN. T-WAVE CURRENTLY APPROACHING
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS FCST TO REMAIN SUPPRESSED UNDERNEATH STRONG
WRN ATLC H50 RIDGING. GOOD TO SEE MORE OF MODEL CONSENSUS TWD THIS
SOLN AS THE 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED TWD TUE'S EURO SOLNS OF A FLATTER
WAVE MOVING MORE WWD. THIS WILL KEEP BULK OF SENSIBLE WX ASCD WITH
THE WAVE SOUTH OF ECFL. MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS N OF THE WAVE
...HOWEVER THIS IS MORE OF A MARINE CONCERN AS DRYING SHOULD STILL
BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


.MON-WED...GIVEN THE SUCCESSIVELY FARTHER WWD TREND OF THE GFS THE
LAST FEW DAYS...AM NOT ALL THAT CONFIDENT IN THE GFS SOLN ALLOWING
THE WAVE TO TURN NW INTO THE CTRL-ERN GOMEX AND THE ATTENDANT NWD
SURGE OF MOISTURE ACROSS FL FROM MON ONWARD. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE
THAT THE WWD TREND WILL CONTINUE AND THE RIDGE WILL KEEP MOISTURE
RETURN FARTHER SOUTH/WEST. THIS WOULD ONCE AGAIN BE CLOSER TO THE
ECM SOLN WHICH DOES SHOW A MORE MODEST MOISTURE INCREASE...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. HAVE ALLOWED POPS TO RETURN
TO MID RANGE SCT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HERE.

[cycloneye]

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. WHILE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED...
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR ANY RAPID ORGANIZATION OF
THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.


5:30 PM Tropical Weather Outlook.

First band of heavy rain is moving tru San Juan as I type.

[Canelaw99]

Interesting to note in that TWO in cyclone's post :
"upper level winds are not conducive for any rapid development..."

Rapid development, no, but what about future? slow? they seem to be leaving the door ajar for this little wave....

[MiamiensisWx]

The rapid westward to west-northwestward movement of this wave and the associated convection ahead of the wave axis may indicate that this wave - and it's axis - may get slightly further west and closer to the Bahamas/Florida coastline earlier than indicated by the discussions from some of the Florida offices (especially the Miami NWS). Although the system may likely slow as it approaches the Bahamas, it may arrive a bit before Saturday/Sunday or very early on Saturday due to the current rapid compensation movement, including of the wave axis.

By the way, here's a snippet from the latest Miami NWS discussion to demonstrate my point...

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA
THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE WEAKENING THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR A
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO MOVE INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA. THIS WILL INCREASE THE MOISTURE OVER THE CWA FOR LATE
THIS WEEKEND. SO HAVE KEPT THE POPS IN THE CHANCE CAT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE WESTERN AREAS LATE
THIS WEEK INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND. THE POPS WILL THEN BE IN THE
HIGH CHANCE ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEKEND.

Based on my thoughts above, the wave may be closer than indicated by around late Friday.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The rapid westward to west-northwestward movement of this wave and the associated convection ahead of the wave axis may indicate that this wave - and it's axis - may get slightly further west and closer to the Bahamas/Florida coastline earlier than indicated by the discussions from some of the Florida offices (especially the Miami NWS). Although the system may likely slow as it approaches the Bahamas, it may arrive a bit before Saturday/Sunday or very early on Saturday due to the current rapid compensation movement, including of the wave axis.

and then after that, the strong ridge to the north may lead to this thing becoming a Gulf issue toward the early to middle part of next week.

However, I do not see this reaching FL until late Saturday at the earliest, meaning the Gulf threat would be July 31st and beyond.

[MiamiensisWx]

and then after that, the strong ridge to the north may lead to this thing becoming a Gulf issue toward the early to middle part of next week.

Personally, I doubt that. Although the wave may be closer to the Bahamas and southeast/east-central Florida earlier than indicated in some office discussions, the mid-level ridging, after first retrograding westward to west-southwestward, may weaken as a trough begins to impringe on the ridge from the Great Lakes and east-central U.S., most likely from the east-central U.S., putting the wave axis likely just off the Florida coast by early Saturday after slowing and beginning to interact with a middle to upper-level trough.