Wave in Central Caribbean

#301 Postby **storms in NC** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 2:44 pm

Opal storm wrote:I do not see this becoming a hurricane in the Gulf,that ridge will most likely push this thing south of the Gulf and into the Yucatan and eventually into the BOC.There,it might briefly develop into a T.D/weak T.S before heading into northern Mexico.If the wave does split,I think the northern half will have a much better chance if it merges with that cold front off the S.E coast.

You could be right. But the ridge looks to have a weaking spot in it. the front is spliting just east of Ga. you can see it on Vloop

#302 Postby **rjgator** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 3:12 pm

The 12 Z Euro is developing a low just North of DR on Sunday and bringing up just Southeast of Florida. The euro did well with Beryl suggesting a low somewhere off the east coast for a few days prior to the other models catching on. I wonder if it will be consistent. I have learned in the past years that it tends to be one of the better long range models at suggesting possible development after a few consistent runs.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 6072712!!/

#303 Postby **Air Force Met** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 3:32 pm

rjgator wrote:The 12 Z Euro is developing a low just North of DR on Sunday and bringing up just Southeast of Florida. The euro did well with Beryl suggesting a low somewhere off the east coast for a few days prior to the other models catching on. I wonder if it will be consistent. I have learned in the past years that it tends to be one of the better long range models at suggesting possible development after a few consistent runs.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 6072712!!/

BY Sunday the wave in question should be in the Gulf...this would be a totally different system.

Steve H. · #304 Postby **Steve H.** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 3:32 pm

OK, I don't see it. The link opens to the European view. The North American view doesn't show any feature near Florida on Sunday, nor does it show anything near the DR. It eventually shows a low near Bermuda at 168. If I am incorrect, please provide a link. 8-)

Extremeweatherguy · #305 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 3:35 pm

the Houston AFD is finally mentioning the wave:

AN
INVERTED 700MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS PROGGED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE WESTERN GULF ADVECTING INTO
SOUTHEAST TX.

They have raised rain chances for Houston next Tuesday and Wednesday to 40%.

#306 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 3:37 pm

NWS Miami Discussion as of 2 => wave will pass through the FL straits

THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IS NOW FORECASTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE CWA DUE
TO THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE NORTHERLY
PORTION OF THE WAVE COULD STILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING HELPING TO ENHANCE THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE CWA ON SATURDAY. SO HAVE INCREASE THE POPS FOR
SATURDAY TO SCATTERED OVER MOST OF THE CWA...EXPECT NUMEROUS OVER
THE WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE COLLISIONS OVER
THIS AREA.

x-y-no · #307 Postby **x-y-no** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 3:43 pm

Steve H. wrote:OK, I don't see it. The link opens to the European view. The North American view doesn't show any feature near Florida on Sunday, nor does it show anything near the DR. It eventually shows a low near Bermuda at 168. If I am incorrect, please provide a link.

I think he's looking at 500mb heights. It does have a mid-level low:

but nothing at the surface.

#308 Postby **rjgator** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 3:54 pm

My bad. It was the 500hpa mid level low I saw. I have been looking at too many panels today.

Tampa_God · #309 Postby **Tampa_God** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 4:09 pm

This wave looks like it is moving north of the islands. Could this be a repeat of Hurricane Katrina?

NYCHurr06 · #310 Postby **NYCHurr06** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 4:11 pm

Tampa_God wrote:This wave looks like it is moving north of the islands. Could this be a repeat of Hurricane Katrina?

Not at ALL.

Extremeweatherguy · #311 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 4:14 pm

NYCHurr06 wrote:
Tampa_God wrote:This wave looks like it is moving north of the islands. Could this be a repeat of Hurricane Katrina?

Not at ALL.

I think he meant path wise, not strength wise. No one is expecting a Cat. 5 in the Gulf within a few days.

Tampa_God · #312 Postby **Tampa_God** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 4:18 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
NYCHurr06 wrote:
Tampa_God wrote:This wave looks like it is moving north of the islands. Could this be a repeat of Hurricane Katrina?

Not at ALL.
I think he meant path wise, not strength wise. No one is expecting a Cat. 5 in the Gulf within a few days.

Yeah I meant path wise, sorry for the confusion.

So, more rain for Florida again. Wooooo :roll:

NYCHurr06 · #313 Postby **NYCHurr06** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 4:21 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
NYCHurr06 wrote:
Tampa_God wrote:This wave looks like it is moving north of the islands. Could this be a repeat of Hurricane Katrina?

Not at ALL.
I think he meant path wise, not strength wise. No one is expecting a Cat. 5 in the Gulf within a few days.

OK, my bad. Sorry Tampa_God for the confusion...it's just that when I saw Katrina, I autmatically assumed you meant strength...and we all knows what happen when you assume :lol:

Stormavoider · #314 Postby **Stormavoider** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 4:26 pm

Can one of you "in the loop" folks have them move floater 2 west about 10 deg.?

beachbum_al · #315 Postby **beachbum_al** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 4:41 pm

Tampa_God wrote:This wave looks like it is moving north of the islands. Could this be a repeat of Hurricane Katrina?

No repeat of Katrina! Don't even think that way. :cry:

Of course if I had read a little more I would know that you meant the path.

I am going to listen to the 5pm weather here in Mobile and see what they say. They talked a little about it on TV 15~NBC David Glenn talks a little about it in his blog if this the same wave. I posted links earlier somewhere.

#316 Postby **storms in NC** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 4:46 pm

Stormavoider wrote:Can one of you "in the loop" folks have them move floater 2 west about 10 deg.?

#317 Postby **tailgater** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 4:50 pm

The southern end of wave flaring up nicely, probably shear induced.
http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES ... aUjVfd.jpg

#318 Postby **storms in NC** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 5:09 pm

Is it my eyes or is it going WNW and not west all the way?And I have bad eyes :eek:

ThunderMate · #319 Postby **ThunderMate** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 5:12 pm

Well the TWO says it is moving WNW so maybe your eyes are not as bad as you think?

#320 Postby **storms in NC** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 5:23 pm

Thank you! So I don't need the coke bottles. :wink:

Wave in Central Caribbean

Who is online