99L Invest, East Atlantic,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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gatorcane
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#101 Postby gatorcane » Thu Jul 27, 2006 7:28 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
HurricaneHunter914 wrote:You know whats weird? So far this year is kinda like 2004 but instead Alberto is like Bonnie hitting the big bend and Beryl is like Alex scraping the U.S Coast. Lets hope this potential "Chris" won't be a Charley.


If that situation happens, this would become Debby...Chris would be a quick-developer in between...


Yep it is alot like 2004 but then again many years wait until August.

Just think CAT 5 Charley, borne from the Cape Verde wave train, was bearing down on Tampa Bay Aug 12-13th of 2004....so that is just 2 weeks from now :eek:
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#102 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Jul 27, 2006 7:31 pm

it was a cat 4...145-150mph
cat 5 threshold is 155mph
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#103 Postby gatorcane » Thu Jul 27, 2006 7:33 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:it was a cat 4...145-150mph
cat 5 threshold is 155mph


Hmmmm, I thought it was a CAT 5 - well it was only 5mph from a CAT 5 but close enough
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#104 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Thu Jul 27, 2006 7:33 pm

I have a feeling this won't be a weak system
Last edited by HurricaneHunter914 on Thu Jul 27, 2006 7:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#105 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Jul 27, 2006 7:33 pm

me too
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#106 Postby bvigal » Thu Jul 27, 2006 7:33 pm

Oh crap! I'm just not ready for this so early!!!!! :(
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/goes/Sto ... est_ir.jpg
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#107 Postby Grease Monkey » Thu Jul 27, 2006 7:34 pm

gatorcane wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:it was a cat 4...145-150mph
cat 5 threshold is 155mph


Hmmmm, I thought it was a CAT 5 - well it was only 5mph from a CAT 5 but close enough


Actually I thought anything over 155mph is considered a cat5
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#108 Postby perk » Thu Jul 27, 2006 7:35 pm

That is an impressive wave. I can't wait to see what it looks like tomorrow around this time.
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#109 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Thu Jul 27, 2006 7:35 pm

You are right Grease Monkey.
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#110 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Jul 27, 2006 7:35 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:I have a feeling this won't be a wek system


Same here. I think this will be the first hurricane of 2006 - and perhaps a powerful one.
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#111 Postby mempho » Thu Jul 27, 2006 7:39 pm

Looks promising, but it's still just an invest now.
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#112 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Jul 27, 2006 7:40 pm

talk of a hurricane here is well premature

I'd give this about a 10-15% chance of development (which is about average for a wave from here through early October). There is a closed low, but no well-defined banding features
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#113 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Thu Jul 27, 2006 7:42 pm

You always start waves off with a weak chance.
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#114 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Jul 27, 2006 7:43 pm

mempho wrote:Looks promising, but it's still just an invest now.


Yeah I remember that infamous GFDL forecast on an invest on August 30 that brought the system (would have been Maria) up to a ~920mb Category 5 storm just north of Hispaniola...it dissipated shortly after...
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#115 Postby Bluefrog » Thu Jul 27, 2006 7:43 pm

good .. no development is GREAT :ggreen:
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#116 Postby gatorcane » Thu Jul 27, 2006 7:43 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:talk of a hurricane here is well premature

I'd give this about a 10-15% chance of development (which is about average for a wave from here through early October). There is a closed low, but no well-defined banding features


With some of the SAL getting as far down as 10N in the area 99L is moving towards, it wouldn't surprise me if we lose some convection tomorrow....then it picks up again after leaving the area of SAL.
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#117 Postby jasons2k » Thu Jul 27, 2006 7:46 pm

It sure is far south.
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#118 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Thu Jul 27, 2006 7:47 pm

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 0split.jpg

There's barely any SAL in front of it.
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#119 Postby Nimbus » Thu Jul 27, 2006 7:48 pm

This invest would be a lot more fun to watch if it were taking a track a few degrees further north. Of course then it would likely end up a dead fish in the SAL.
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#120 Postby bvigal » Thu Jul 27, 2006 7:49 pm

Here's this evening's scatterometer that probably cinched the invest
click here
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