99L Invest, East Atlantic,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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Extremeweatherguy
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#121 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Jul 27, 2006 7:55 pm

jschlitz wrote:It sure is far south.
Remember Ivan?
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#122 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Thu Jul 27, 2006 7:57 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

Still is maintaining convection with a slight decrease.
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#123 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Jul 27, 2006 7:58 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

Still is maintaining convection with a slight decrease.
I don't see much of a decrease in this IR shot.
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#124 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jul 27, 2006 8:01 pm

This system has developed a area of deep convection...Really I see a cirulation around 10 north/32 west moving west-northwestward. The SAL seems to be north of it for the time. In the dry air(Moisture-sinking)looks faverable with moist air around the system. Wind shear looks to be pretty light by the looks of the system. The MLC/LLC at 32 west appears to be slowly becoming better organized. This system remains me of a few systems like fabian or dolly. I give this a 40 percent chance to become chris. This is by far the best looking system this season out there.
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#125 Postby bvigal » Thu Jul 27, 2006 8:03 pm

Obviously, things are getting busy. So please, let's remember this:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=85432

The Talkin' Tropics forum is a place for sharing, discussing, and learning. Unfortunately, well thought out, informative posts can be completely buried in mere minutes beneath a mountain of posts with really no useful substance at all. Questions and comments are welcomed...that's what we're here for. This isn't a professionals only board, but in the interest of time and space, it is not necessary to post every single thought that pops in your head. That's chatroom style. Storm2k has become an important weather information source for many people. If you're at work, and you only have a few minutes to grab the latest tropical information, how frustrating it must be to plow through page after page of "I agree" "time to lock this thread" "that sounds possible" and "I already said that in another thread," etc.

"I agree" - Unless you have a weighty meteorological reputation, whether or not you agree is irrelevant to most people reading the post. What if everyone replied just to say "I agree" or "I disagree" - it would need its own forum.

"Time to lock this thread" - Please continue posting on topic until the thread is locked. How silly and wasteful to post a countdown until it's locked. It wastes valuable time and space.

"That sounds possible" - Almost anything is possible. Possibilites are limitless and universally accepted as such so it's not necessary to reply just to point this out.

"I already said/saw that in another thread" - Believe it or not, some people do not read every single post on every single page in every single thread. That comment is really just rude. This isn't a game of one-upmanship. Nobody is trying to steal your thunder. Maybe they didn't read your post and they made a similar comment. It's probably not intentional and you don't need to waste a post pointing it out.

Here's another tip: it's not always necessary to quote someone's entire post or graphic just to comment on it. Obviously, sometimes it is, but use good judgement. Most of the time it's just a space muncher.
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#126 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Jul 27, 2006 8:19 pm

Just a reminder:

1 hour = TWO

..can't wait to see what it says..
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#127 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Thu Jul 27, 2006 8:21 pm

I don't expect a really signficantly good outlook for this thing coming up. Perhaps they will comment how it's looking slightly better defined.
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#128 Postby hial2 » Thu Jul 27, 2006 8:26 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:Just a reminder:

1 hour = TWO

..can't wait to see what it says..


I already said that in another thread :D


Just kiddin' !!
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#129 Postby abajan » Thu Jul 27, 2006 8:28 pm

I suspect the next TWO will be a repeat of the last. There really isn't much change in the wave's structure, IMO.
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#130 Postby beachbum_al » Thu Jul 27, 2006 8:42 pm

Don't want to remember Ivan or 2004. Anyway it looks like the tropics are getting a little active.
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#131 Postby Scorpion » Thu Jul 27, 2006 8:45 pm

It's an impressive system, but it needs to maintain its convection if it wants to make it to TD status.
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#132 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Thu Jul 27, 2006 8:46 pm

Scorpion what are you talking aboput? This has been sustaining convection for over the past 4 days.
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#133 Postby bvigal » Thu Jul 27, 2006 8:54 pm

OK guys, Floater 1 now on this wave.
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#134 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Thu Jul 27, 2006 8:55 pm

I'm not suprised, this is the most organized thing in the world right now.
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#135 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 27, 2006 8:55 pm

bvigal wrote:OK guys, Floater 1 now on this wave.


Floater 1

Very impressive tonight.
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#136 Postby Lifesgud2 » Thu Jul 27, 2006 8:55 pm

Hmmmm...Can You say "Christopher?" Obvioulsy this area is a hotbead for development, but it has a loooooong trip ahead of it. Could be a name by Saturday afternoon or sooner...

The other wave in Carribean has way too much shear to develop further. When will if ever this season will the wind shear retract?
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#137 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Jul 27, 2006 9:00 pm

Wow that is impressive!

I'd almost say that is TD3 now...
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#138 Postby bvigal » Thu Jul 27, 2006 9:01 pm

I must admit, that dvorak looks impressive.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/bd-l.jpg
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#139 Postby Grease Monkey » Thu Jul 27, 2006 9:02 pm

If there's an LLC and banding features, what still seperates it from a TD?
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#140 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Thu Jul 27, 2006 9:02 pm

Has alot of moisture ahead of it that was left behind by the remnants of a tropical wave that disappated earlier..
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