99L Invest, East Atlantic,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Grease Monkey]

oh, ok. lol. I just read optimisitic and saw "outflow needs to improve" and thought you meant that he was trying to say it wouldn't develop.

Sorry about that. I'll try to make it more clear next time.

[Extremeweatherguy]

http://wxmaps.org/pix/atlpot.png

WOW, look at how high the Maximum Wind Intensity is if conditions were perfect

that's scary.

[Scorpion]

http://wxmaps.org/pix/atlpot.png

WOW, look at how high the Maximum Wind Intensity is if conditions were perfect

that's scary.

Not really. The MPI in much of the Atlantic only supports a Cat 4. And that's the MPI. Hurricanes never reach that.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Some do though.

[NYCHurr06]

Some do though.

Name 1

[cheezyWXguy]

ivan? hugo?

[Tampa_God]

I know I was going to be right> I said this would be a Invest by tonight and it is.

I give this tomorrow for TD3. Very fast developing system we have. And conditions look good for our first Hurricane in the Atlantic. Only thing is, where will it go?

[NYCHurr06]

ivan? hugo?

Do you have their MPI offhand? Thanks in advance.

[cheezyWXguy]

nah...just guesses...thats why i had question marks...hugo's gotta be pretty close

[Grease Monkey]

I know I was going to be right> I said this would be a Invest by tonight and it is.

I give this tomorrow for TD3. Very fast developing system we have. And conditions look good for our first Hurricane in the Atlantic.

Stop while you're ahead.

[Tampa_God]

Are you headed for the Caribbean?

Yes, on August 6.

I believe this should be past the Carribean by Aug 6.

[NYCHurr06]

nah...just guesses...thats why i had question marks...hugo's gotta be pretty close

OK...I wouldn't be suprised about Hugo...I was just wondering which ones HurricaneHunter was thinking of

[Weatherfreak000]

Geez you guys always jinx these storms when you say they are gonna go over your houses.



Just CHILL.....CHILL

[Scorpion]

Are you headed for the Caribbean?

Yes, on August 6.

I believe this should be past the Carribean by Aug 6.

Hopefully it won't be near the Bahamas on the 6th, because thats where the first stop is.

[wxmann_91]

This will need to stay south. The old TUTT in the central Atlantic continues to create strong shear and the SAL is just to the north. Any northern component in the latitude will kill the system.

[whereverwx]

It looks like a paint splat.

[mike815]

Yea i feel this will become a named system. how strong not sure yet but i think a hurricane is a good bet tomorrow will be a very interesting day for this im not sure it will be a TD tommorow but its possible im thinkin more late tomorrow or sat.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looking at the system it appears that the LLC is at 31 west/8.5 north. Also theres a ship report or something to the southeast of the center reporting southwestly winds. Which would support a LLC at the surface. But on the other hand theres seems to be strong eastly shear removing the convection 2-3 degrees from the center. Even so there is a new pop up forming near the center over the last hour or so. I think this system is most likely already a depression based on this data. But it going to have to get much better organized. Like convection on top of LLC before the upgrade. Also theres stratocu moving in from the north=SAL. Because there is not very much dry air near this system at this time...

[SouthFloridawx]

Yea i feel this will become a named system. how strong not sure yet but i think a hurricane is a good bet tomorrow will be a very interesting day for this im not sure it will be a TD tommorow but its possible im thinkin more late tomorrow or sat.

Hey mike... long time no see.

[HurricaneHunter914]

The NHC will probably mention some possible TD formation over the next couple of days in the 5 AM Advisory.