99L Invest, East Atlantic,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

This will need to stay south. The old TUTT in the central Atlantic continues to create strong shear and the SAL is just to the north. Any northern component in the latitude will kill the system.

I was thinking that too. I don't have much to go on.. but I expect a TD late tomorrow/early Sat.

[NYCHurr06]

The NHC will probably mention some possible TD formation over the next couple of days in the 5 AM Advisory.

5 a.m. advisory?

[BUD]

coffee anyone

[curtadams]

There looks like a circ on shortwave, but it's lagging the convection and looks exposed. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-ir2.html You can see the spin behind the convection. The system is certainly sucking in what looks like the lowest cloud layer.

[Grease Monkey]

Green Tea is healthier.

[NYCHurr06]

Green Tea is healthier.

Regular tea is just fine.

[Grease Monkey]

There looks like a circ on shortwave, but it's lagging the convection and looks exposed. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-ir2.html You can see the spin behind the convection. The system is certainly sucking in what looks like the lowest cloud layer.

I can't tell from that.

[mike815]

ok yea i think i might see what your seeing there.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Even though the center is exposed, this having an LLC and deep convection is showing that this disturbance is already trying to form quickly.

[Cyclenall]

I would not jump to say this system will become a hurricane or even a tropical storm. Here are my %'s:

First % chance that Invest 99L will become a:

Tropical Depression: 50%
Tropical Storm: 40%
Hurricane: 10%
Major Hurricane: Unknown %
Category 4 Hurricane: Unknown %
Category 5 Hurricane: Unknown %

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

We will likely see that convection out front start dieing over the next 6 hours. In the convection near the center keep flaring. If eastly shear can weaken some then we may have something.

[Stratosphere747]

There are too many tropical waves in the Caribbean for a cruise to go through.

You would be amazed how many actually make it safely through...

[HurricaneHunter914]

Lets see what the Diurnal Maximum has in store for us when most of us wake up today.

[mike815]

yea lol thats always fun to wake up and see what happens overnight with the Diurnal Maximum.

[JonathanBelles]

Lets see what the Diurnal Maximum has in store for us when most of us wake up today.

the who??

ill take some coffee

[Grease Monkey]

If only our bodies didn't need sleep....

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

yea lol thats always fun to wake up and see what happens overnight with the Diurnal Maximum.

Yupp. When I was younger and there was a disturbance I would wake up early to see what was going on.. I didn't know what it was then, but I knew that they seemed to have a flare up at night.

[JonathanBelles]

so diurnal maximum is when a system doesnt sleep, but is like little children that have sugar rushes at 2 am in the morn?

[beachbum_al]

i am going to sleep now. I guess when I get back tomorrow morning this thing might be a TD.

[mike815]

no not in the morning it will take longer. allThough it may be much more orginized in the morn. the afternoon or evening it might become a TD definetly Sat.