99L Invest, East Atlantic,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Unless the eastly shear weakens then this will have slow development. The center has started forming a flare up near it...But it will likely be sheared to the west again. So yes I do think this is a depression right now...In I think the nhc most likely will make it one if it can develop some more convection over the next 36 hours. Once it passes 35 west is when the max eastly shear starts going down on avg.

[CrazyC83]

Yea i feel this will become a named system. how strong not sure yet but i think a hurricane is a good bet tomorrow will be a very interesting day for this im not sure it will be a TD tommorow but its possible im thinkin more late tomorrow or sat.

Tomorrow could make the difference between just some disorganized rain and an extremely dangerous hurricane down the road...it is the critical day for this system.

[CrazyC83]

My estimated chances at this point of becoming:

Tropical depression - 60%
Tropical storm - 50%
Hurricane - 40%
Major hurricane - 30%
Category 4 hurricane - 10%
Category 5 hurricane - 2%

[mike815]

yup i agree with that there thats the way the NHC will do it

[HurricaneHunter914]

Its already starting to look like a TD.

[Brent]

My estimated chances at this point of becoming:

Tropical depression - 60%
Tropical storm - 50%
Hurricane - 40%
Major hurricane - 30%
Category 4 hurricane - 10%
Category 5 hurricane - 2%

60 + 50 + 40 + 30 + 10 +2=???



A lot more than 100%.

[Rieyeuxs]

From the NHC:

<b>MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR IS IN THE AREA FROM 16N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 20W AND 60W.
A WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN THIS DRY AIR IS NEAR
21N50W.</b>

And <b>AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN MOVED TO 29W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 15 KT</b>

Doesn't those coordinates put it in the dry air? Granted it's at the southern end of it, but it seems that the westerly movement is tracking this through dry air. The NHC give some chance of development, but where's the moisture coming from?

[HurricaneHunter914]

Its not supposed to add up to 100 he's just showing percentages like the ones you see on TWC when they post the 5-7 day forecast.

[CrazyC83]

My estimated chances at this point of becoming:

Tropical depression - 60%
Tropical storm - 50%
Hurricane - 40%
Major hurricane - 30%
Category 4 hurricane - 10%
Category 5 hurricane - 2%

60 + 50 + 40 + 30 + 10 +2=???



A lot more than 100%.

That is the chance it will reach AT LEAST that level. It will often add up to far more than 100.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

Any possible chance of the formation of a new LLC under the very deep convection?

[Brent]

My estimated chances at this point of becoming:

Tropical depression - 60%
Tropical storm - 50%
Hurricane - 40%
Major hurricane - 30%
Category 4 hurricane - 10%
Category 5 hurricane - 2%

60 + 50 + 40 + 30 + 10 +2=???



A lot more than 100%.

That is the chance it will reach AT LEAST that level. It will often add up to far more than 100.

No, a percent can never go over 100. Your numbers should add up to 100, not more, not less.

[CrazyC83]

My estimated chances at this point of becoming:

Tropical depression - 60%
Tropical storm - 50%
Hurricane - 40%
Major hurricane - 30%
Category 4 hurricane - 10%
Category 5 hurricane - 2%

60 + 50 + 40 + 30 + 10 +2=???



A lot more than 100%.

That is the chance it will reach AT LEAST that level. It will often add up to far more than 100.

No, a percent can never go over 100. Your numbers should add up to 100, not more, not less.

To phrase it that way, the chance I think it will become:

Dissipate with no development - 40%
Tropical depression - 10%
Tropical storm - 10%
Category 1/2 hurricane - 10%
Category 3 hurricane - 20%
Category 4 hurricane - 8%
Category 5 hurricane - 2%

[mike815]

its no big deal its late so it goes over 100 lol

[Scorpion]

Not necessarily. Since the categories are not separate entities, rather upgrades from eachother, there is no theoretical max for percentages. For example, a TD can have a 80% chance to form into a TS, a 40% chance to form into a hurricane, and a 10% chance to form into a major, and this would make sense.

[Brent]

My estimated chances at this point of becoming:

Tropical depression - 60%
Tropical storm - 50%
Hurricane - 40%
Major hurricane - 30%
Category 4 hurricane - 10%
Category 5 hurricane - 2%

60 + 50 + 40 + 30 + 10 +2=???



A lot more than 100%.

That is the chance it will reach AT LEAST that level. It will often add up to far more than 100.

No, a percent can never go over 100. Your numbers should add up to 100, not more, not less.

To phrase it that way, the chance I think it will become:

Dissipate with no development - 40%
Tropical depression - 10%
Tropical storm - 10%
Category 1/2 hurricane - 10%
Category 3 hurricane - 20%
Category 4 hurricane - 8%
Category 5 hurricane - 2%

Yeah, I think I've read too much today.

[HurricaneHunter914]

No, a percent can never go over 100. Your numbers should add up to 100, not more, not less.

What you don't understand is that these are not supposed to add up, these numbers are basically showing the chances for that level. Like when you see the 5-Day forecast on your news station you see something like:

M___T___W__ TH___F
30% 30% 40% 50% 20%

I'm pretty sure those don't add up to 100.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

According to this shear tendency map, its going to be a smooth run for 99L.

[Grease Monkey]

No, a percent can never go over 100. Your numbers should add up to 100, not more, not less.

What you don't understand is that these are not supposed to add up, these numbers are basically showing the chances for that level. Like when you see the 5-Day forecast on your news station you see something like:

Monday Tuesday Wednsday Thursday Friday
30% 30% 40% 50% 20%

I'm pretty sure those don't add up to 100.

You're correct. It adds up to 170%.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Its the eastly flow around the Azores high which is causing eastly shear. Which is pushing the convection west from the LLC.

[mike815]

ok lol enough with the numbers just predictions, yea nice smooth run for 99l it apears