99L Invest, East Atlantic,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

HurricaneHunter914 · #261 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 12:02 am

Though there is still a possibility of a possible reformation of the LLC under the convection.

Weatherfreak000 · #262 Postby **Weatherfreak000** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 12:19 am

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Though there is still a possibility of a possible reformation of the LLC under the convection.

Well first of all an LLC would have to exist for it to reform.

mike815 · #263 Postby **mike815** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 12:22 am

yes very tru

Grease Monkey · #264 Postby **Grease Monkey** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 12:23 am

How much longer do we have to wait until we can get some decent satelite images on vis satelite?

HurricaneHunter914 · #265 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 12:34 am

Once the sun comes out. And sorry about earlier, I thought this had an LLC but it turns out that it only has an area of low pressure.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #266 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 12:50 am

A buoy or ship report supports the LLC.

#267 Postby **MWatkins** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 12:57 am

Grease Monkey wrote:How much longer do we have to wait until we can get some decent satelite images on vis satelite?

About 4 more hours.

Although...you can get a pretty good look in the IR2 channels. It's hard to tell if the low clouds to the west are moving toward the center...or if the convection is out running them. but either way...the system is relatively impressive:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-ir2.html

MW

Grease Monkey · #268 Postby **Grease Monkey** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 1:05 am

MWatkins wrote:
Grease Monkey wrote:How much longer do we have to wait until we can get some decent satelite images on vis satelite?

About 4 more hours.

Although...you can get a pretty good look in the IR2 channels. It's hard to tell if the low clouds to the west are moving toward the center...or if the convection is out running them. but either way...the system is relatively impressive:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-ir2.html

MW

Thanks. According to the 2pm update from TWC, the shear doesn't look to be a problem for the system right now.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #269 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 1:07 am

The old LLC near 8.5/31 looks to have weaken...But a new area at 10 north/34 west right where the new blow up is starting to form. The buoy/ship report at 29 west shows it has went form southwest to south winds over the last few hours. You look at the stratocu clouds moving in a circle around 10/34 you can clearly pick out what I'm seeing. In it looks like this area has alot less eastly shear...Which it is more faverable for this LLC to catch on. But yes it closer to the dry air.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

#270 Postby **MWatkins** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 1:13 am

Grease Monkey wrote:
MWatkins wrote:
Grease Monkey wrote:How much longer do we have to wait until we can get some decent satelite images on vis satelite?

About 4 more hours.

Although...you can get a pretty good look in the IR2 channels. It's hard to tell if the low clouds to the west are moving toward the center...or if the convection is out running them. but either way...the system is relatively impressive:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-ir2.html

MW

Thanks. According to the 2pm update from TWC, the shear doesn't look to be a problem for the system right now.

I agree with that for whatever that's worth...upper shear looks to be minimal right now...upper clouds are spreading out pretty well in all directions. With a system like this at this time of the year...I would be more concerned with the lower levels of the system outrunning the rest of it further up...or getting elongated/tilted etc.

Also...there looks to be plenty-o-moisture in the envelope:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/wv-l.jpg

MW

Jim Cantore · #271 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 1:23 am

see if it holds together overnight and into tommorow, if it does I love it's chances

Thunder44 · #272 Postby **Thunder44** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 4:06 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:The old LLC near 8.5/31 looks to have weaken...But a new area at 10 north/34 west right where the new blow up is starting to form. The buoy/ship report at 29 west shows it has went form southwest to south winds over the last few hours. You look at the stratocu clouds moving in a circle around 10/34 you can clearly pick out what I'm seeing. In it looks like this area has alot less eastly shear...Which it is more faverable for this LLC to catch on. But yes it closer to the dry air.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

It's hard to tell where the LLC is, if there still is one, without visible imagery. The ship you are talking at 29W only supports a LLC somewhere west of that. Not a more precise location.

Thunder44 · #273 Postby **Thunder44** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 4:12 am

This system is on Floater 1 now:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

RQSTR · #274 Postby **RQSTR** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 4:23 am

it's a quiet season despite what we expected... now august approaches, maybe things will change, maybe not.

#275 Postby **mvtrucking** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 4:31 am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 280913
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TO
COLOMBIA IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS... AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
SQUALLS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...IS LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS CONTINUING TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #276 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 4:46 am

Theres two more ship reports in the right area's...Jackpot!!! One at 8 north/37 west over the southwestern quad reporting Northwestlly winds. Another is on the northeastern quad with northeastly winds. Which shows that this has a soild LLC. This system likely is centered near 10/35. This system is likely a depression right now based on the closed LLC and tight wind field.

#277 Postby **mvtrucking** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 4:49 am

Matt,
Where do you get those?(ship reports)Thanks in advance

mobilebay · #278 Postby **mobilebay** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 4:50 am

First light Visible looks good too.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis.jpg

Thunder44 · #279 Postby **Thunder44** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 4:53 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Theres two more ship reports in the right area's...Jackpot!!! One at 8 north/37 west over the southwestern quad reporting Northwestlly winds. Another is on the northeastern quad with northeastly winds. Which shows that this has a soild LLC. This system likely is centered near 10/35. This system is likely a depression right now based on the closed LLC and tight wind field.

Could you post them please?

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #280 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 4:54 am

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

Look at the yellow arrows on the satellite loop you will find over the Gulf of Mexico. In which is the one set over this system.

99L Invest, East Atlantic,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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