99L Invest, East Atlantic,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

mobilebay · #281 Postby **mobilebay** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 4:59 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/TROPICAL.html

Look at the yellow arrows on the satellite loop you will find over the Gulf of Mexico. In which is the one set over this system.

I see them Matt!

Thunder44 · #282 Postby **Thunder44** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 5:07 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/TROPICAL.html

Look at the yellow arrows on the satellite loop you will find over the Gulf of Mexico. In which is the one set over this system.

I see that. Can you find the actual ship reports on NDBC site?

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #283 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 5:08 am

The latest visible shows the convection is starting to wrap around a center near 8.5 to 9 north. I remember Isabel 2003 organized fast like this. I will try to find the whole data....

#284 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 5:59 am

Matt, I must be doing something wrong. I can't find any wind barbs on that web page you posted. I did plot ship reports in GARP but there was nothing anywhere near the disturbance. Heading to the office now, so I'll have more tools to look at it.

#285 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 6:00 am

wxman57 wrote:Matt, I must be doing something wrong. I can't find any wind barbs on that web page you posted. I did plot ship reports in GARP but there was nothing anywhere near the disturbance. Heading to the office now, so I'll have more tools to look at it.

#286 Postby **Blown Away** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 6:23 am

Dr. Lyons said last night the wave would be moving over slightly cooler pockets of water today, if it made it through today then development seemed likely!

DESTRUCTION5 · #287 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 6:27 am

I thought this was the start to CV Season when I saw yesterday...Here we go...

Nimbus · #288 Postby **Nimbus** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 6:31 am

Someone from the NHC actually used the phrase "development likely" concerning an invest this year!

#289 Postby **Air Force Met** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 6:34 am

Blown_away wrote:Dr. Lyons said last night the wave would be moving over slightly cooler pockets of water today, if it made it through today then development seemed likely!

The water temps out there are fine...roughly 81-82F. There is a cooler pocket south of there but it should have no impact.

Eyewall · #290 Postby **Eyewall** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 6:36 am

Nimbus wrote:Someone from the NHC actually used the phrase "development likely" concerning an invest this year!

yea really :roll:

boca · #291 Postby **boca** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 6:37 am

99L will slam into South America on its current track.

Eyewall · #292 Postby **Eyewall** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 6:41 am

If the presure drops it will move a little north.

#293 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 6:41 am

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 15-20 KT.
THIS WAVE HAS BEEN CHALLENGING TO LOCATE THIS MORNING AS IT
APPEARS TO HAVE A VERY BROAD ELONGATED LOW-MID LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION COVERING AN AREA OF OVER 700 NM. THE ANALYZED WAVE
AXIS IS PLACED NEAR THE CENTER OF THIS BROAD TURNING. BASED UPON
THE FIRST FEW VISIBLE PICTURES THIS MORNING...THIS ANALYZED
POSITION APPEARS TO BE IN THE CORRECT LOCATION. HOWEVER...THERE
ARE A FEW SFC OBS SUGGESTING THAT THE AXIS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES
FURTHER TO THE WEST. CONVERGENCE IS THE STRONGEST AHEAD OF THE
ANALYZED WAVE AXIS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ WHERE THERE IS SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 35W-41W. THIS WAVE IS
SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND SOME FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

8 AM Discussion.

Thunder44 · #294 Postby **Thunder44** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 6:47 am

On visible imagery this morning. I see two areas of low or mid-level spin near one near 9N 39W, the spin that was seen yesterday, and perhaps a new one near 7N 36W. They both seem to be embedded in a much broader circulation that is centered between those two centers and is moving westward, which is the position NHC seems to be using this morning. Deep convection has persisted from the overnight hours, but it doesn't appear the wave got any better organized.

#295 Postby **bvigal** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 6:56 am

Still no low plotted on surface map,
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_06Z.gif
This is 3 now (18z, 0z, 6z) without a low.

This morning's (3am) high res scatterometer doesn't show a low. (of course that was 4 hrs ago) I saved it to computer and then zoomed in with a viewer to look for W or SW winds. I can't see any.
high res scatterometer

#296 Postby **bvigal** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 7:05 am

You can use this link to get ship reports, enter your own parameters.
This is set up for 400mile radius

shaggy · #297 Postby **shaggy** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 7:09 am

still dont see anything that is showing me that theres aLLC with this but it looks good!Will wait to see what happens this afternoon as far as if it starts to gain some spin and convection.

Stratusxpeye · #298 Postby **Stratusxpeye** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 7:11 am

boca wrote:99L will slam into South America on its current track.

Exact quote of emily prior to her explosion last year.

caneman · #299 Postby **caneman** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 7:15 am

Stratusxpeye wrote:
boca wrote:99L will slam into South America on its current track.

Exact quote of emily prior to her explosion last year.

No two systems are alike. Although I do see people say this far too much. Don't worry, if a system starts to develop it will begin to pull more Northerly.

#300 Postby **storms in NC** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 7:18 am

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/d ... rcp&loop=1

99L Invest, East Atlantic,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

Who is online