99L Invest, East Atlantic,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

Scorpion · #341 Postby **Scorpion** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:14 am

I don't understand why people say it has little chance. It has very favorable conditions ahead of it, and even the NHC thinks this. Look at the beautiful satellite appearance.

Scorpion · #342 Postby **Scorpion** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:14 am

ThunderMate · #343 Postby **ThunderMate** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:14 am

Well, this thing wouldn't be approaching us until about August 5-6 if it developes

HurricaneHunter914 · #344 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:16 am

Who said this was going to hit the East Coast? Let me guess, JB?

ThunderMate · #345 Postby **ThunderMate** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:16 am

Well the outflow is getting a bit better organized especially to the northern side of it which is where it is having a few problems.

#346 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:16 am

Apart from the shear and the dry air,for this system to become much more organized than what it is now it has to slow down a bit as in this moment is racing westward at 18kts.

ThunderMate · #347 Postby **ThunderMate** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:17 am

No i am just saying if this developed and DID come towards the east coast then it wouldn't be here for a while...i am not saying it is going to hit the east coast especially when this is not even a TD yet.

#348 Postby **storms in NC** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:18 am

ThunderMate wrote:Well, this thing wouldn't be approaching us until about August 5-6 if it developes

I hope you are saying the US and not us :wink:

ThunderMate · #349 Postby **ThunderMate** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:19 am

yes, U.S. sorry for the confusion...typing fast

HurricaneHunter914 · #350 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:20 am

Oh okay.

IMO I think it is good this is racing across the Atlantic, the faster it moves the farther away it will be from the Dry Air, SAL and Shear.

perk · #351 Postby **perk** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:22 am

Scorpion i see your point, we can't wait for an impressive to come along, and once we get one, we start to seek ways to tear it down. Go figure! :roll:

#352 Postby **storms in NC** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:24 am

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Who said this was going to hit the East Coast? Let me guess, JB?

I don't see it comimg to the east coast. #1 it is below the 10 and going west at a fast rate.#2 there is the BH .#3 it has to become some first

HurricaneHunter914 · #353 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:26 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

Convection has decreased somewhat.

#354 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:26 am

storms in NC wrote:
HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Who said this was going to hit the East Coast? Let me guess, JB?

I don't see it comimg to the east coast. #1 it is below the 10 and going west at a fast rate.#2 there is the BH .#3 it has to become some first

That should be your #1 point!!! Don't get Dolly-ied with this system!!!

#355 Postby **bvigal** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:26 am

Latest sat frame looks like new build of convection centered approx 7.5N 39W.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

vacanechaser · #356 Postby **vacanechaser** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:27 am

storms in NC wrote:
HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Who said this was going to hit the East Coast? Let me guess, JB?

I don't see it comimg to the east coast. #1 it is below the 10 and going west at a fast rate.#2 there is the BH .#3 it has to become some first

well, this was the system that the gfs was bringing up the east coast a few days ago... to say that it is gonna happen, but the ridge is forecast to weaken a good bit in the coming days....

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

#357 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:28 am

28/1215 UTC 8.2N 36.6W TOO WEAK 92L -- Atlantic Ocean

Scorpion · #358 Postby **Scorpion** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:30 am

HURAKAN wrote:28/1215 UTC 8.2N 36.6W TOO WEAK 92L -- Atlantic Ocean

That's odd. I think it looks pretty impressive.

ThunderMate · #359 Postby **ThunderMate** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:30 am

Well if it developes then it will go North of the islands or through the Northern islands and then be pushed back west so iits possible if this was to develope to be a thing to watch on the East coast....i definately don't think this will be a gulf problem however if it remains weak then i think it could but we just need to see how developed this wave will get....i also would like to say i think it looks like the outflow on this thing is getting better organized which is a sign of some developing.

#360 Postby **curtadams** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:30 am

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Where are the GFDL, GFS, and the UKMET when you need them.

They are here: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
All the major globals agree this is an open wave and it will not develop at all for at least 5 days. They have been right about the demise of a large number of good-looking waves coming off Africa although this has gotten the farthest out.

99L Invest, East Atlantic,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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