99L Invest, East Atlantic,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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wxman57
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#361 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:31 am

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Where are the GFDL, GFS, and the UKMET when you need them.
.

The GFS tracks the 850mb vorticity center fairly well. Reaches the NE Caribbean Tuesday night/Wednesday morning and is over Haiti next Friday morning. By then, though, wind shear associated with the TUTT may be causing a good bit of shear.

The ECMWF doesn't show anything approaching the DR next Thursday evening.

The GFDL dissipates it in 6-12 hours.

The UKMET doesn't go out far enough.

I can track it on the Canadian, but it's VERY weak - takes it to near Haiti as well late next week.
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#362 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:31 am

Despite 99L getting better organized it still has along way to become a TD. BTW where is the 10:30 TWO?
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#363 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:32 am

Scorpion wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:28/1215 UTC 8.2N 36.6W TOO WEAK 92L -- Atlantic Ocean


That's odd. I think it looks pretty impressive.


No banding features, not much evidence of any rotation. Without that, there can't be a DVorak number.
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#364 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:32 am

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Despite 99L getting better organized it still has along way to become a TD. BTW where is the 10:30 TWO?


You meant 11:30 AM?
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#365 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:32 am

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Despite 99L getting better organized it still has along way to become a TD. BTW where is the 10:30 TWO?


11:30 AM EDT
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#366 Postby storms in NC » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:32 am

LOL in the same time frame one has it decreased the other is new build of convection. which one is it
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#367 Postby RattleMan » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:32 am

Scorpion wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:28/1215 UTC 8.2N 36.6W TOO WEAK 92L -- Atlantic Ocean


That's odd. I think it looks pretty impressive.


Why is that 92L and not 99L?
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#368 Postby vacanechaser » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:33 am

bvigal wrote:Latest sat frame looks like new build of convection centered approx 7.5N 39W.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html


i, myself think it is re-organzing a bit... circulation is strong, and looks good to me... does not look like a lot of shear... maybe some... but notice the western side with arching bands... looks like outflow trying to develop... seen plenty of systems look like this and go on to be big canes...

also, looking at a zoomed in version of the visible, i just dont see a west or southwestern side to it yet... still looks open to the west... no low level clouds or moisture being pulled in from the west or southwest just yet...


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#369 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:33 am

I'm confused because there is an 11:30 AM TWO and a 10:30 PM TWO.
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#370 Postby bvigal » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:33 am

storms in NC wrote:LOL in the same time frame one has it decreased the other is new build of convection. which one is it

Yeah, I thought that funny, too. But both correct. The northern area of convection has all but disappeared this morning.
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#371 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:36 am

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:I'm confused because there is an 11:30 AM TWO and a 10:30 PM TWO.


It has always been like that!!!
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#372 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:37 am

HURAKAN wrote:
HurricaneHunter914 wrote:I'm confused because there is an 11:30 AM TWO and a 10:30 PM TWO.


It has always been like that!!!


10:30 PM TWO is for the night product.
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#373 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:37 am

I know, but I still get confused.
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#374 Postby vacanechaser » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:40 am

wxman57 wrote:
Scorpion wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:28/1215 UTC 8.2N 36.6W TOO WEAK 92L -- Atlantic Ocean


That's odd. I think it looks pretty impressive.


No banding features, not much evidence of any rotation. Without that, there can't be a DVorak number.


not much evidence of rotation??? looks like a decent one to me in the visible.... certainly at the lower levels....


visible floater, speed up a bit and put the motion on rock...looks ok to me... certainly for being below 10N


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#375 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:41 am

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Who said this was going to hit the East Coast? Let me guess, JB?
No. JB has not even posted yet today and he was traveling all day yesterday. I am sure we will find out more from him when he has a longer tropical discussion later on, but as of now he did not say this is an east coast threat.
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#376 Postby Thunder44 » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:44 am

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:I know, but I still get confused.


What are you confused about? There is simply a TWO issued during the day at 11:30am and another one at 10:30pm in the evening.
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#377 Postby bvigal » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:44 am

28/1215 UTC 8.2N 36.6W TOO WEAK 92L -- Atlantic Ocean

The 92L must be a typo.
36.6 is too far east, there's nothing there. It's further south and west. The small amount of spin (it is below 10N, after all) is over broad area, and open to the south, but roughly centered where convection is now building.
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#378 Postby ThunderMate » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:45 am

Hey, Jesse, i live on Chesapeake VA BEach boarder in the Indian River area...do you know where that is?
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#379 Postby Blown Away » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:45 am

Best potential so far for open Atlantic!! It's been maintaining convection since coming off Africa! The wave is flying across the Atlantic, may have to slow down a bit to develop. IMO.
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#380 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:46 am

SSD has the correct position. Thats also where I am seeing the wave axis, and possible LLC
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