99L Invest, East Atlantic,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

#381 Postby **bvigal** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:47 am

ThunderMate wrote:Hey, Jesse, i live on Chesapeake VA BEach boarder in the Indian River area...do you know where that is?

Most respectfully, since this thread is so busy, this question really belongs in a PM. :wink:

vacanechaser · #382 Postby **vacanechaser** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:48 am

ThunderMate wrote:Hey, Jesse, i live on Chesapeake VA BEach boarder in the Indian River area...do you know where that is?

yes i do... live a few miles from there

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

#383 Postby **bvigal** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:50 am

Derek Ortt wrote:SSD has the correct position. Thats also where I am seeing the wave axis, and possible LLC

OK, maybe I better try a different satellite view, still looking at AVN.

Derek Ortt · #384 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:52 am

turning at the SSD position shows up very clearly on visible

HurricaneHunter914 · #385 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:52 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis.jpg

Circulation is now evident on the Visible you can see the rotation all the way on the eastern side of the disturbance.

#386 Postby **bvigal** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:53 am

Yes, Derek, I can see that on the visible. Thanks!

vacanechaser · #387 Postby **vacanechaser** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:53 am

bvigal wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:SSD has the correct position. Thats also where I am seeing the wave axis, and possible LLC
OK, maybe I better try a different satellite view, still looking at AVN.

that is the best image to look at imo... check your lat/lon,...they are laid out in 5 degree increments... derek is correct... ssd is right on it..

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Thunder44 · #388 Postby **Thunder44** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:54 am

QS pass this early this morning at 8:44UTC shows no signs of a surface circulation:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_0.html

Extremeweatherguy · #389 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:55 am

Thunder44 wrote:QS pass this early this morning at 8:44UTC shows no sings of a surface circulation:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_0.html

this was also at 8:44UTC which was a LONG time ago.

Derek Ortt · #390 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:56 am

http://www.nwhhc.com/invest.gif

shows the area very nicely

ThunderMate · #391 Postby **ThunderMate** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:57 am

So does it seem this thing now has a LLC and if so this is a sign of organization correct?

Thunder44 · #392 Postby **Thunder44** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:57 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:QS pass this early this morning at 8:44UTC shows no sings of a surface circulation:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_0.html
this was also at 8:44UTC which was a LONG time ago.

It doesn't look like it's changed much in organization since then.

#393 Postby **bvigal** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 10:00 am

Derek Ortt wrote:http://www.nwhhc.com/invest.gif

shows the area very nicely

Wow, look at that! Yeah, that's very clear. So, what are your latest thoughts on this, Derek? Still doing what you expected?

HurricaneHunter914 · #394 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 10:02 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

The deep convection appears to be decreasing.

vacanechaser · #395 Postby **vacanechaser** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 10:03 am

ThunderMate wrote:So does it seem this thing now has a LLC and if so this is a sign of organization correct?

not any better organized, however you can see the surface circulation now due to the weaker convection... it was probably there all a long, we just could not see it yesterday because the convection may have been right over it.... if the NHC says there was one there, you can bet it was there... jmho...

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Resaerch Team

Derek Ortt · #396 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 10:03 am

yeah, this is doing about what I expected, no quick devleopment and likely none at all. Still give this only a 10-15% chance

Extremeweatherguy · #397 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 10:03 am

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

The deep convection appears to be decreasing.

actually compared to earlier this morning it looks the same. This is also typical of developing TDs.

vacanechaser · #398 Postby **vacanechaser** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 10:07 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
HurricaneHunter914 wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

The deep convection appears to be decreasing.
actually compared to earlier this morning it looks the same. This is also typical of developing TDs.

i agree... i think it is no different than the many developing storms we have seen in past years.. they seem to go through this period where it is stronger then it gets weaker, then the kick comes in to play and sets it off... just seems like a lot of these very conversations took place even last year with many storms...

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

#399 Postby **storms in NC** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 10:07 am

It does not have a lot of moisture to work with here. The closer to 55-60 it get you will see the moisture start to come into it. You also want it to come up to the north some too.

#400 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 10:10 am

The convection does not seem to be flaring up and down like a typical tropical wave so probably some development is taking place. I also noticed too last year when a developing storm would wane a little bit then intensify.

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