Wave in Central Caribbean

Extremeweatherguy · #341 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:44 am

Steve wrote:Sorry, I'm new to this thread. This wave is far from dead. It's looks better than it has to date IMHO. The wave is picking up energy along the way and is about to get some additional energy piled in from the backside - can't tell from WV conclusively if that energy is from an additional wave or if it's upper level energy. But it doesn't matter. The US Generated Model (GFS) is nuking the Atlatnic ridge as it has tried to do each run the last several days at 00z. The other models maintain or build it farther westward. Obviously the known bias with the GFS would lead the model watcher to conclude that the more likely threat (if there ever is one) is Texas or Mexico. At least it appears that way this early in the game. Everyone on the gulf coast should cast an occasional eye on the system this weekend because it will be in the Gulf by early next week. Whether it ever does anything or not remains to be seen. But at least it's garnering some attention that it didn't get on local Channel 4's 6pm broadcast last night.

Steve

I agree. We should not let our guard down yet with this system. It could very well surprise us.

#342 Postby **Steve** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:47 am

>>I agree. We should not let our guard down yet with this system. It could very well surprise us.

We're on a several year trend of named storms forming west of 60W (and 70W and even 80W in some cases). Obviously the farther west a storm gets cranking, the greater the potential threat is to North America. For everyone pumped on the wave in the Central Atlantic, I think they're missing a real player. That's just my opinion, but for anyone who disagrees, we can revisit it Sunday or Monday

.

Steve

Extremeweatherguy · #343 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 10:18 am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 281516
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ACROSS EASTERN
CUBA AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TO COLOMBIA. THIS SYSTEM IS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS... AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SQUALLS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

#344 Postby **jasons2k** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 10:57 am

It needs to slow down in order to have a real chance IMO

Rainband · #345 Postby **Rainband** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 10:59 am

jschlitz wrote:It needs to slow down in order to have a real chance IMO

Correct me if I am wrong but didn't another system a few years back behave in the same way :wink:

#346 Postby **jasons2k** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 11:09 am

Rainband wrote:
jschlitz wrote:It needs to slow down in order to have a real chance IMO
Correct me if I am wrong but didn't another system a few years back behave in the same way

well of course anything can happen but generally 20-25mph is a little to fast for development

Rainband · #347 Postby **Rainband** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 11:11 am

jschlitz wrote:
Rainband wrote:
jschlitz wrote:It needs to slow down in order to have a real chance IMO
Correct me if I am wrong but didn't another system a few years back behave in the same way

well of course anything can happen but generally 20-25mph is a little to fast for development

I agree.

But this is the tropics. I think it was either dennis or Ivan that behaved this way. Out running it's circulation.I realize this wave doesn't have a surface low yet but it's kind of similar. Do you rememeber which one, if either?? Thanks

Thunder44 · #348 Postby **Thunder44** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 11:15 am

jschlitz wrote:
Rainband wrote:
jschlitz wrote:It needs to slow down in order to have a real chance IMO
Correct me if I am wrong but didn't another system a few years back behave in the same way

well of course anything can happen but generally 20-25mph is a little to fast for development

Speed of movement usually has little influence on development unless it's moving in opposite direction of the upper-level wind flow.

#349 Postby **hial2** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 11:58 am

Speed of movement usually has little influence on development unless it's moving in opposite direction of the upper-level wind flow.[/quote]

I believe that if a TC moves too fast, it can de-couple with the accompaning thunderstorms and thus expose the circulation and weaken/dissipate..but this system has no lower circulation..thus the faster it moves, the less chance/time it has to develop..

Extremeweatherguy · #350 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 12:08 pm

JB thinks this will end up in the Gulf.

KatDaddy · #351 Postby **KatDaddy** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 1:02 pm

Its definitely Gulf bound but the question is will we actually have any tropical cyclone development. The shear will be weaker thus we could get something to develop this time around. With the strong ridge across the Southern US I think it will push into Mexico but until something does develop its just a guess.

White Cap · #352 Postby **White Cap** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 2:19 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:JB thinks this will end up in the Gulf.

When did he say this and what is the time frame for it entering the Gulf?

#353 Postby **Steve** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 6:18 pm

Looks like the energy in the back is pulsing up. I expect at least somewhat of a big blowup when the two energy masses intersect. Whether it's a necessary spark for one or the other to go, we'll see. There are a couple of trailing/tandem ull's in the area and a fairly good push from the east providing the forward direction for both pieces of energy. At least it's something to watch over the weekend.

*edit* to add the goes 12 link

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html

Steve

Extremeweatherguy · #354 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 6:38 pm

White Cap wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:JB thinks this will end up in the Gulf.

When did he say this and what is the time frame for it entering the Gulf?

In tonight's post he says he is having a problem seeing why the player in the Caribbean will not be a problem in the gulf next week. So by problem, he means this could possibly be a development issue. As for when he initially said it was going to the Gulf...that was early this afternoon.

#355 Postby **skysummit** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 6:41 pm

If I remember correctly, every disturbance that was in the Carribean had a possible development issue in the gulf. Nothing new with this forecast either.

Extremeweatherguy · #356 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 8:22 pm

skysummit wrote:If I remember correctly, every disturbance that was in the Carribean had a possible development issue in the gulf. Nothing new with this forecast either.

Actually the only system that really did was Alberto. The other systems were all more "home-grown" systems that spun up off the TX coast and never really developed.

#357 Postby **storms in NC** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 8:32 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
White Cap wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:JB thinks this will end up in the Gulf.

When did he say this and what is the time frame for it entering the Gulf?
In tonight's post he says he is having a problem seeing why the player in the Caribbean will not be a problem in the gulf next week. So by problem, he means this could possibly be a development issue. As for when he initially said it was going to the Gulf...that was early this afternoon.

I think that is why I really don't care for JB cause he sounds like he is giving a sport forcast LOL

Stratosphere747 · #358 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 8:59 am

Fairly sizable blow-up this morning...

This might get a bit more interesting, than 99L?

#359 Postby **hial2** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 9:07 am

Stratosphere747 wrote:Fairly sizable blow-up this morning...

This might get a bit more interesting, than 99L?

If I reme
mber correctly, hurricane Gilbert formed in the same general area of the latest blowup....It destroyed Acapulco

Stratosphere747 · #360 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 9:10 am

hial2 wrote:
Stratosphere747 wrote:Fairly sizable blow-up this morning...

This might get a bit more interesting, than 99L?

If I reme
mber correctly, hurricane Gilbert formed in the same general area of the latest blowup....It destroyed Acapulco

Gilbert had already become organized long before this area. This is the region though that he began to become much more intense.

Wave in Central Caribbean

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