99L Invest, East Atlantic,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[curtadams]

Convection is mostly gone now. The cold IR tops are mostly just outflow from dead thunderstorms overlaying low clouds with not much inbetween. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html (cloudtops are blue, low clouds yellow, and active convection bright white)
edit: this has been how the earlier waves died when (I think) they sucked in dry Saharan air.

[ConvergenceZone]

Derek, actually, if you say it won't develop, then it probably won't. You have a pretty good track record, so I'll take your word for it on this one...

[DESTRUCTION5]

Derek, actually, if you say it won't develop, then it probably won't. You have a pretty good track record, so I'll take your word for it on this one...

Sounds like your call in Derek out on that one..LOL

[vacanechaser]

There is no closed surface circulation; thus, no TD

Also, mets can disagree with each other. very common in the scientific field. This met does not agree with Dr Masters or NHC at this time. Development does not seem likely due to the very poor surface organization, and a southward intrusion of the SAL. Any development would be slow

ok, now i am confussed.... you say you dont agree with NHC, yet you said exactly what they said... slow to occur.... i agree it looks poor right now.... it needs to get north... not all waves, disturbances start out like what everyone is wanting to see... it takes time and sometimes these processes are slow due in part to the conditions... you make it sound so matter of fact, and i just dont think that is the case just yet.... it is holding its own right now.. now matter how poor the surface circ. is..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept research Team

[Derek Ortt]

The fact that it is at 8N is not really hindering it... only keeping it out of the heart of the SAL. 8N is plenty north of the eq to have development.

Any development would likely occur as it nears the islands; however, I was at an HRD briefing and they are even more bearish than I am

[hial2]

Development does not seem likely due to the very poor surface organization, and a southward intrusion of the SAL. Any development would be slow

Mr Ortt, I think you're contradicting yourself within this statement..Please clarify so those that know less than you do (for instance,me) can understand..Thanks

[Thunder44]

Latest visible images show a broad LLC seems to be getting better defined this afternoon near 7.5N and 38W. But that may due to decrease in convection in that area.

[ConvergenceZone]

Derek, actually, if you say it won't develop, then it probably won't. You have a pretty good track record, so I'll take your word for it on this one...

Sounds like your call in Derek out on that one..LOL

nope, not at all! I'm just saying that I've followed his predictions they have been damn good!. So I"m just saying that if I'd listen to anyone it would be him....not that anyone else can't be right, but based upon his past record.

[Brent]

Looks like there will be no development anytime soon IMO. I do think it has a good chance to develop down the road though.

[Derek Ortt]

perhaps I should have said development, if any, would be slow and not likely, at least through the next 36 hours

[storms in NC]

If it stays going west at 20 MPH it will be in SA in 67 hours. Not lot of to to get north

[cheezyWXguy]

thats almost 3 days...

[SouthFloridawx]

As the ridge weakens and starts to move north and eastward.. it should allow this system to move to the wnw-nw during the next three days.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

GFS also slows this system down a bit and puts it just north of the islands in 5 days. Which may be a bit slow...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[tgenius]

Side note, I got called to tell me that my Accordian shutters will be installed in 2 weeks.. woohoo!

[SouthFloridawx]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 281752
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST NEAR
16 KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO SHOW BROAD LOW-MID LEVEL
CURVATURE. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS
STRONGEST WEST OF THE WAVE AXIS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ WHERE THERE
IS SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 5N TO 12N
BETWEEN 36W AND 45W. A TROF HAS BEEN ADDED ALONG THIS FEATURE
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING NE FROM 5N40W TO NEAR 9N36W DUE TO
AFTERNOON CLOUD MOTION ANALYSIS AND RECENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS
SHOWING A CYCLONIC WIND FIELD. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS WAVE AS IT PROGRESSES WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

[whereverwx]

Well, despite having little or no deep convection, I’m surprised it’s still here.


Also, I’m glad that, in the other topic, I said this:

This is nothing... wait until August, in my opinion.

[shaggy]

very tough system to get a feel for it looks really good on sat images as far as a rotation standpoint go but the overall system does not appear to be consolidating any.altho around 8N and 37W seems to be looking tighter maybe thats where it will finally get going at IF it does.

[cycloneye]

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992006) ON 20060728 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060728 1800 060729 0600 060729 1800 060730 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 8.3N 38.4W 8.7N 42.1W 9.1N 45.4W 9.6N 48.4W
BAMM 8.3N 38.4W 8.9N 41.9W 9.6N 45.1W 10.4N 48.0W
A98E 8.3N 38.4W 8.0N 42.7W 8.1N 46.6W 8.2N 49.8W
LBAR 8.3N 38.4W 8.6N 42.6W 9.3N 46.8W 10.1N 50.7W
SHIP 20KTS 26KTS 32KTS 40KTS
DSHP 20KTS 26KTS 32KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060730 1800 060731 1800 060801 1800 060802 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.3N 51.3W 11.8N 56.8W 13.1N 61.8W 15.1N 66.5W
BAMM 11.6N 50.6W 14.1N 55.1W 16.0N 58.4W 17.6N 60.7W
A98E 8.5N 52.5W 9.8N 57.0W 11.3N 61.3W 13.2N 65.9W
LBAR 11.3N 54.6W 13.8N 60.3W 19.0N 62.4W .0N .0W
SHIP 48KTS 60KTS 66KTS 69KTS
DSHP 48KTS 60KTS 66KTS 69KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.3N LONCUR = 38.4W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 22KT
LATM12 = 8.6N LONM12 = 33.6W DIRM12 = 265DEG SPDM12 = 22KT
LATM24 = 8.8N LONM24 = 29.6W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


18:00z Run od BAM Models.

Wow,it's racing westward at 22 kts.

[DESTRUCTION5]

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992006) ON 20060728 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060728 1800 060729 0600 060729 1800 060730 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 8.3N 38.4W 8.7N 42.1W 9.1N 45.4W 9.6N 48.4W
BAMM 8.3N 38.4W 8.9N 41.9W 9.6N 45.1W 10.4N 48.0W
A98E 8.3N 38.4W 8.0N 42.7W 8.1N 46.6W 8.2N 49.8W
LBAR 8.3N 38.4W 8.6N 42.6W 9.3N 46.8W 10.1N 50.7W
SHIP 20KTS 26KTS 32KTS 40KTS
DSHP 20KTS 26KTS 32KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060730 1800 060731 1800 060801 1800 060802 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.3N 51.3W 11.8N 56.8W 13.1N 61.8W 15.1N 66.5W
BAMM 11.6N 50.6W 14.1N 55.1W 16.0N 58.4W 17.6N 60.7W
A98E 8.5N 52.5W 9.8N 57.0W 11.3N 61.3W 13.2N 65.9W
LBAR 11.3N 54.6W 13.8N 60.3W 19.0N 62.4W .0N .0W
SHIP 48KTS 60KTS 66KTS 69KTS
DSHP 48KTS 60KTS 66KTS 69KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.3N LONCUR = 38.4W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 22KT
LATM12 = 8.6N LONM12 = 33.6W DIRM12 = 265DEG SPDM12 = 22KT
LATM24 = 8.8N LONM24 = 29.6W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


18:00z Run od BAM Models.

Wow,it's racing westward at 22 kts.

Ships Very aggressive...most ive seen all year..

[cheezyWXguy]

there must be a reason that its more aggressive now, than it was yesterday...yesterday it was brought to 51kt...now its 69