99L Invest, East Atlantic,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[caneman]

Any the have it as depression in 24 hours.

[Derek Ortt]

I am not entirely convinced yet on this clearing S America.

Yes, there is a break in the ridge near 50W, but it may be slightly too far north to influence this low-latitude system.

Also, in 1993, a well developed Bret didn't come close to clearing S America. Its wave was in a similar location to this one. Models indicated it would turn NW... yet it slammed right into S America, killing more than 100

[HurricaneHunter914]

It seems like 99L has move slightly southward. Unless this starts moving WNW or NW this will not develop.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I am not entirely convinced yet on this clearing S America.

Yes, there is a break in the ridge near 50W, but it may be slightly too far north to influence this low-latitude system.

Also, in 1993, a well developed Bret didn't come close to clearing S America. Its wave was in a similar location to this one. Models indicated it would turn NW... yet it smalled right into S America, killing more than 100

I agree on that Ortt...Racing West ath 25 MPH...Better gain some Lattitde fast...

[storms in NC]

It seems like 99L has move slightly southward. Unless this starts moving WNW or NW this will not develop.

Seen that myself about ahour a go. But thought it was just me. I would give it one more day to turn. If not into SA it gos

[cheezyWXguy]

it only needs to degrees latitude...it cant be too much of problem...it think itll start to turn wnw either late tonight or tomorrow morning

[Extremeweatherguy]

looks like 99L has better outflow now on satellite.

I think it actually looks like it is getting it's act together:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis.jpg

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I got enough data this morning to say that there is in fact a LLC...Also looking at the latest visible appears that it is at 8.2-8.5 north/38 west. Yes its racing but holding together suprizing good. One factor that is killing development is the eastly shear around the azores high. This has happen to many a developing system...In which the convection gets sheared off to the west. But overall this seems to have a strong cirulation...Also dry air might be killing development of the convection based on the stratocu I was seeing moving into the system this morning.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

[Scorpion]

It seems like 99L has move slightly southward. Unless this starts moving WNW or NW this will not develop.

In the short term, a more westward movement is good since it will keep out of the SAL.

[Derek Ortt]

what data do you have that indicates that there is a closed LLC

[Cyclenall]

Also, in 1993, a well developed Bret didn't come close to clearing S America. Its wave was in a similar location to this one. Models indicated it would turn NW... yet it smalled right into S America, killing more than 100

Yeah, look at this track and date:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

South America getting hit by TC's this way must be very rare.

[Extremeweatherguy]

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992006) ON 20060728 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060728 1800 060729 0600 060729 1800 060730 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 8.3N 38.4W 8.7N 42.1W 9.1N 45.4W 9.6N 48.4W
BAMM 8.3N 38.4W 8.9N 41.9W 9.6N 45.1W 10.4N 48.0W
A98E 8.3N 38.4W 8.0N 42.7W 8.1N 46.6W 8.2N 49.8W
LBAR 8.3N 38.4W 8.6N 42.6W 9.3N 46.8W 10.1N 50.7W
SHIP 20KTS 26KTS 32KTS 40KTS
DSHP 20KTS 26KTS 32KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060730 1800 060731 1800 060801 1800 060802 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.3N 51.3W 11.8N 56.8W 13.1N 61.8W 15.1N 66.5W
BAMM 11.6N 50.6W 14.1N 55.1W 16.0N 58.4W 17.6N 60.7W
A98E 8.5N 52.5W 9.8N 57.0W 11.3N 61.3W 13.2N 65.9W
LBAR 11.3N 54.6W 13.8N 60.3W 19.0N 62.4W .0N .0W
SHIP 48KTS 60KTS 66KTS 69KTS
DSHP 48KTS 60KTS 66KTS 69KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.3N LONCUR = 38.4W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 22KT
LATM12 = 8.6N LONM12 = 33.6W DIRM12 = 265DEG SPDM12 = 22KT
LATM24 = 8.8N LONM24 = 29.6W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


18:00z Run od BAM Models.

Wow,it's racing westward at 22 kts.

that's a pretty bold call by the models. They have this thing as a hurricane in 5 days. I will not be letting my guard down with this one.

[Frank2]

I agree with those here that said it might not pull northward before reaching South America, and I agree that in fact it seems to have shifted slightly southward - at the current rate, it'll be nearing the South America coast in just 24-30 hours...

Frank

[cycloneye]

18:00z Graphic.

[Nimbus]

Whats that little whirlwind near the surface at 11N 36W? If that is the low level center it is in for some dry air.

[Thunder44]

I agree with those here that said it might not pull northward before reaching South America, and I agree that in fact it seems to have shifted slightly southward - at the current rate, it'll be nearing the South America coast in just 24-30 hours...

Frank

If it develops it will probably gain some latitude. It would feel the weakness in the ridge as the system will become more verticaly stacked and will be more guided by the upper-level flow.

[Grease Monkey]

invest 99L

[Derek Ortt]

I dont think there is enough of a weakness. The weakness may allow it to take a Bret track.

Also, just ebcause a system is more intense, does not mean that it will move more northerly. remember, Ivan barely cleared S America and in fact caused a few deaths in Venezuela

[ThunderMate]

To me it seems some of the convection is blowing off to the south a bit making it appear it is moving south however if you look at the overall Low to mid level circulation it seems to be moving more WNW. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Thunder44]

I dont think there is enough of a weakness. The weakness may allow it to take a Bret track.

Also, just ebcause a system is more intense, does not mean that it will move more northerly. remember, Ivan barely cleared S America and in fact caused a few deaths in Venezuela

Yeah, but the eye still avoided making landfall in South America.