99L Invest E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

MiamiensisWx · #1 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 2:28 pm

First thread

Continue discussion here.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #2 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 2:30 pm

This is my post earlier...It was found off Rasmas visible satellite loop. Also there was a southly wind at 29 west. With a southwest wind earlier when it was passing by. This is better then anything to support theres a LLC.

Theres two more ship reports in the right area's...Jackpot!!! One at 8 north/37 west over the southwestern quad reporting Northwestlly winds. Another is on the northeastern quad with northeastly winds. Which shows that this has a soild LLC. This system likely is centered near 10/35. This system is likely a depression right now based on the closed LLC and tight wind field.

#3 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 2:32 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:This is my post earlier...It was found off Rasmas visible satellite loop. Also there was a southly wind at 29 west. With a southwest wind earlier when it was passing by. This is better then anything to support theres a LLC.

Theres two more ship reports in the right area's...Jackpot!!! One at 8 north/37 west over the southwestern quad reporting Northwestlly winds. Another is on the northeastern quad with northeastly winds. Which shows that this has a soild LLC. This system likely is centered near 10/35. This system is likely a depression right now based on the closed LLC and tight wind field.

Matt,do you have a link to those ship reports?

mike815 · #4 Postby **mike815** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 2:32 pm

im not sure i dont think it has closed off it looks much better then yesterday much more orginized. there is rotation though. It still needs some more time.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #5 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 2:32 pm

It was on Rasmas satellite did not find the links.

Derek Ortt · #6 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 2:34 pm

QS though shows a wide open wave.

The ship reports may have been related to thunderstorm outflow.

#7 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 2:35 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:what data do you have that indicates that there is a closed LLC

I was wondering the same. Can't find any ship reports anywhere near the disturbance. There are no buoys within 500 miles, and no QuikSCAT data. All we have are satellite loops, and it's very hard to conclude that there is an LLC assocated with the system. By the way, I put what looks like an MLC near 8.1N/38W.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #8 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 2:35 pm

Thats what I'v always seen on the quickscats.

Thunder44 · #9 Postby **Thunder44** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 2:35 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:This is my post earlier...It was found off Rasmas visible satellite loop. Also there was a southly wind at 29 west. With a southwest wind earlier when it was passing by. This is better then anything to support theres a LLC.

Theres two more ship reports in the right area's...Jackpot!!! One at 8 north/37 west over the southwestern quad reporting Northwestlly winds. Another is on the northeastern quad with northeastly winds. Which shows that this has a soild LLC. This system likely is centered near 10/35. This system is likely a depression right now based on the closed LLC and tight wind field.

I didn't ship reports in the NDBC site this morning. However I notice in TAFB discussion they keep talking about some surface obs in the area being used for their analysis. So I don't know.

Frank2 · #10 Postby **Frank2** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 2:36 pm

Right now it seems like this might be a low-latitude system, as others here have mentioned...

Since it's still in the development stage, more likely that it'll continue westward, which would bring it very close to the South American coast by late tomorrow...

Frank

#11 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 2:37 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:This is my post earlier...It was found off Rasmas visible satellite loop. Also there was a southly wind at 29 west. With a southwest wind earlier when it was passing by. This is better then anything to support theres a LLC.

Theres two more ship reports in the right area's...Jackpot!!! One at 8 north/37 west over the southwestern quad reporting Northwestlly winds. Another is on the northeastern quad with northeastly winds. Which shows that this has a soild LLC. This system likely is centered near 10/35. This system is likely a depression right now based on the closed LLC and tight wind field.

Matt, I still don't see any ship reports on those satelltie images. I'm plotting all ships in GARP and have nothing there. Can you post an image or the link that shows a ship report? The web site doesn't seem to mention ship reports on the satellite images. I saw the ship report yesterday at 29W, but that was well east of the disturbance.

Thunder44 · #12 Postby **Thunder44** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 2:38 pm

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST NEAR
16 KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO SHOW BROAD LOW-MID LEVEL
CURVATURE. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS
STRONGEST WEST OF THE WAVE AXIS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ WHERE THERE
IS SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 5N TO 12N
BETWEEN 36W AND 45W. A TROF HAS BEEN ADDED ALONG THIS FEATURE
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING NE FROM 5N40W TO NEAR 9N36W DUE TO
AFTERNOON CLOUD MOTION ANALYSIS AND RECENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS
SHOWING A CYCLONIC WIND FIELD. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS WAVE AS IT PROGRESSES WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

Frank2 · #13 Postby **Frank2** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 2:38 pm

...this view gives a better sense of how close it is to the coast - and how low in latitude...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

Frank

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #14 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 2:41 pm

It doe's not have it on the loop any more...Also at 22 knot forward speed the quickscats would not pick up a westly wind.

Derek Ortt · #15 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 2:42 pm

QS most certainly would pick up a westerly wind... IF THERE WAS ONE even if the system was moving at 50KT

Frank2 · #16 Postby **Frank2** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 2:44 pm

My initial feeling yesterday was that this is an ITCZ disturbance (as opposed to a developing tropical wave) - perhaps it's just that, and nothing more, since even they have weak cyclonic circulations...

Frank

P.S. It might also help to explain it's rapid movement...

Frank2 · #17 Postby **Frank2** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 2:48 pm

..in fact, if you look at this loop, the leading edge of the low clouds associated with this disturbance are already at the South American coast...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

Frank

Derek Ortt · #18 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 2:59 pm

dont think it will reach SA for about 3 days

SA starts at 59W at its latitude. If it were at 6N, it would reach much sooner

#19 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 3:00 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:QS though shows a wide open wave.

The ship reports may have been related to thunderstorm outflow.

Derek, do you have a more recent quikscat than the 0844Z ascending pass? The 20Z descending pass is from yesterday.

#20 Postby **storms in NC** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 3:02 pm

If you look to you left side of the loop you will see showers there about 15N 55W that is trying to make a pull on 99L. Am I wrong?

99L Invest E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

99L Invest E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

Who is online