99L Invest E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

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senorpepr
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#41 Postby senorpepr » Fri Jul 28, 2006 3:57 pm

conestogo_flood wrote:Where is this wave? No one says anything, just Atlantic at 12 N and 50 W. I don't know what that is, how many miles from anything would be better.


Invest (99L / 99L) (28/1200Z)
Position: 8.3°N 38.4°W (1110 miles WSW from Praia, Cape Verde)
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#42 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 28, 2006 3:58 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Whats going to slow it down?


Ridge breakdown.
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#43 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Fri Jul 28, 2006 3:58 pm

You can also check Floater #1 on the http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
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#44 Postby x-y-no » Fri Jul 28, 2006 4:00 pm

Thunder44 wrote:
x-y-no wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:18z analysis shows shear has increased to 30kts ahead of the wave:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html


This is a bit deceptive because part of that is contributed by outflow from the disturbance itself.


Or is the shear contributing to the outflow channel?


Ummm ...

My point is that the upper-level flow is easterly. Over the wave itself, there's about 15 knots of shear or so. But the outflow from the convection ahead of the wave is adding to the rate of that easterly shear. But that component will of course always stay ahead of the disturbance. So for purposes of potential organization, it doesn't matter. We're looking at 15 to 20 knots of easterly shear for the next day or so at least.
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#45 Postby ThunderMate » Fri Jul 28, 2006 4:08 pm

They adjusted the floater west and it does seem like it is still better organizing itself and still seems to be moving WNW.
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#46 Postby Thunder44 » Fri Jul 28, 2006 4:09 pm

x-y-no wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:
x-y-no wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:18z analysis shows shear has increased to 30kts ahead of the wave:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html


This is a bit deceptive because part of that is contributed by outflow from the disturbance itself.


Or is the shear contributing to the outflow channel?


Ummm ...

My point is that the upper-level flow is easterly. Over the wave itself, there's about 15 knots of shear or so. But the outflow from the convection ahead of the wave is adding to the rate of that easterly shear. But that component will of course always stay ahead of the disturbance. So for purposes of potential organization, it doesn't matter. We're looking at 15 to 20 knots of easterly shear for the next day or so at least.


I believe you are correct.
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#47 Postby Thunder44 » Fri Jul 28, 2006 4:11 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 5:30 PM EDT on July 28, 2006


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
A westward-moving tropical wave is located about 1350 miles
east-southeast of the southern Windward Islands. The wave continues
to produce numerous showers...but has not increased in organization
during the day. However...some slow development of this system is
possible over the next day or two.

Two tropical waves...one over the central Caribbean Sea and the
Greater Antilles...and another over the eastern Caribbean and the
Lesser Antilles...are producing widespread cloudiness and some
showers. Conditions are not conducive for tropical cyclone
formation from either system.
Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Saturday.
$$
Forecaster Franklin/landsea
Last edited by Thunder44 on Fri Jul 28, 2006 4:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#48 Postby cheezyWXguy » Fri Jul 28, 2006 4:12 pm

although convection is diminishing over the center, it does look better organized and a tiny flare up is just west of the center...from what ive seen in the past...a tiny flare up like this could expand and set off a chain of blow-ups that may help the storm develop
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#49 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 28, 2006 4:12 pm

ABNT20 KNHC 282108
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1350 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE WAVE CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS...BUT HAS NOT INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION
DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
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#50 Postby x-y-no » Fri Jul 28, 2006 4:16 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:although convection is diminishing over the center, it does look better organized and a tiny flare up is just west of the center...from what ive seen in the past...a tiny flare up like this could expand and set off a chain of blow-ups that may help the storm develop


Yeah, lets see if it doesn't get a boost from the diurnal maximum tonight.
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#51 Postby HardCard » Fri Jul 28, 2006 4:18 pm

Mark my words.. first major player of the year.. the only question is WHERE it's going..
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#52 Postby vacanechaser » Fri Jul 28, 2006 4:19 pm

x-y-no wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:although convection is diminishing over the center, it does look better organized and a tiny flare up is just west of the center...from what ive seen in the past...a tiny flare up like this could expand and set off a chain of blow-ups that may help the storm develop


Yeah, lets see if it doesn't get a boost from the diurnal maximum tonight.


took the words right off my fingers.... lol


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#53 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Fri Jul 28, 2006 4:20 pm

The last diurnal maximum this went under it actually lost convection.
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#54 Postby mike815 » Fri Jul 28, 2006 4:21 pm

It doesnt really necissarly mean anything and im not sure if this has been mentioned in here but the ships model brings this system up to Cat. 2 intensity. I know it really isnt something to go crazy over just noticed it.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... nsity1.png
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#55 Postby vacanechaser » Fri Jul 28, 2006 4:26 pm

mike815 wrote:It doesnt really necissarly mean anything and im not sure if this has been mentioned in here but the ships model brings this system up to Cat. 2 intensity. I know it really isnt something to go crazy over just noticed it.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... nsity1.png


i dont see that in the text print out of the models.. it does however show 69kts at 120 hours... or 81mph... still cat 1... 18z run


ftp://ftp.met.fsu.edu/pub/weather/tropi ... 818.WHXX01


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Last edited by vacanechaser on Fri Jul 28, 2006 4:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#56 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Fri Jul 28, 2006 4:26 pm

I wouldn't be suprised if this actually became a Cat-2. The waters are so warm in the Carib that they could even support a Major.
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#57 Postby Wthrman13 » Fri Jul 28, 2006 4:32 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:I wouldn't be suprised if this actually became a Cat-2. The waters are so warm in the Carib that they could even support a Major.


That's no surprise. The waters in the Caribbean are virtually always warm enough this time of year to support a major hurricane.
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#58 Postby rjgator » Fri Jul 28, 2006 4:33 pm

sse,
Posted: Fri Jul 28, 2006 4:26 pm Post subject:



mike815 wrote:
It doesnt really necissarly mean anything and im not sure if this has been mentioned in here but the ships model brings this system up to Cat. 2 intensity. I know it really isnt something to go crazy over just noticed it.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... nsity1.png


i dont see that in the text print out of the models.. it does however show 69kts at 120 hours... or 81mph... still cat 1... 18z run


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Nice to see you here Jesse. What are your feelings on this one?
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#59 Postby White Cap » Fri Jul 28, 2006 4:33 pm

What the heck is a diurinal maximum? :?:
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#60 Postby MortisFL » Fri Jul 28, 2006 4:38 pm

White Cap wrote:What the heck is a diurinal maximum? :?:


What the heck is a Giga-watt?
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