99L Invest E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

#81 Postby **skysummit** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 6:40 pm

Very very ragged......It's only a wave! and a pretty organized one at that. We can't expect convection to stay around the center at this time. It needs a solid, persistant burst of convection....I think it'll get that once it nears or passes the islands.

Weatherfreak000 · #82 Postby **Weatherfreak000** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 6:41 pm

Well obviously i'm talking about development RIGHT NOW. Not in the future, in which case I won't give an opinion on development or not.

#83 Postby **storms in NC** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 7:48 pm

We may have a closed low soon. take a look at this. make sure you zoom in

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

As far as it going wnw I can't see that it is.

#84 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 7:57 pm

looks like a closed low or close to it. it looks like it is going west or just north of west. maybe 280- 300 degrees.

HurricaneHunter914 · #85 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 7:59 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

UGLY!

cheezyWXguy · #86 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 8:04 pm

this is definately better organized than yesterday, in terms of a low level structure...it just lacks convection right now and if you look at the visible loop above, its coming back...a tiny blob has popped up in the last couple of frames over what i think is the center...if convection continues to come back...you can say hello to chris by late tomorrow night or sunday morning...as for the motion, what i see is just north of due west...i think it will continue to lift left farther to north as it goes...i think it will narrowly clear SA, but i dont think it will take a turn toward the NW and exit the carribean to the east coast, but move throught the western carribean, probably coming close to cuba...just my 2 cents

#87 Postby **storms in NC** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 8:11 pm

vacanechaser wrote:
rjgator wrote:
sse,
Posted: Fri Jul 28, 2006 4:26 pm Post subject:

mike815 wrote:
It doesnt really necissarly mean anything and im not sure if this has been mentioned in here but the ships model brings this system up to Cat. 2 intensity. I know it really isnt something to go crazy over just noticed it.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... nsity1.png

i dont see that in the text print out of the models.. it does however show 69kts at 120 hours... or 81mph... still cat 1... 18z run

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Nice to see you here Jesse. What are your feelings on this one?

right now, not sure... i think we could have something here... but, it needs to slow, and start getting north... so far though, the convection of course is down from yesterday and this morning, but it is still there and fighting back all the time it seems... this looked like it was on a trend for most of the convection to die off earlier today, but it didnt... it is approaching the beginning of the oceanic heat content, although not all that impressive, it is warmer, deeper than where it is now it would appear.. that is certainly working in its favor... the low is not closed, but it does, or did have a nice low level circulation this afternoon... it just reminds me of a lot of systems we have tracked in the past few years that all the pro mets and other folks have just about written it off, and they seem to come right back... it just appears to me at this time to be continuing that trend... but it does need to slow, and that should happen in a day or so...

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

If I may ask what time frame are we talking here? And there is a very BIG IF it does some way finds its self here on the EC. I would like to know for a few reasons. 1 Hubby is going to Gremany the 3 and will be alone. #2 I'm going fishing 5-6-7-8- Would love to catch this a few days befor it comes for the it would be great fishing for Kings. And this is a BIG IF Thanks

#88 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 8:30 pm

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992006) ON 20060729 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060729 0000 060729 1200 060730 0000 060730 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 8.5N 41.2W 8.7N 44.8W 9.1N 48.1W 9.5N 51.0W
BAMM 8.5N 41.2W 8.9N 44.7W 9.6N 47.7W 10.5N 50.3W
A98E 8.5N 41.2W 8.6N 44.8W 8.9N 48.2W 9.3N 51.0W
LBAR 8.5N 41.2W 8.9N 44.9W 9.8N 48.4W 10.7N 51.8W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 29KTS 35KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 29KTS 35KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060731 0000 060801 0000 060802 0000 060803 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.1N 53.7W 10.8N 59.3W 11.7N 65.2W 13.7N 70.6W
BAMM 11.6N 52.7W 13.6N 57.0W 15.3N 60.8W 17.3N 64.2W
A98E 9.8N 53.5W 11.4N 57.7W 13.2N 61.7W 15.8N 65.7W
LBAR 11.7N 55.1W 14.2N 60.3W 16.4N 63.2W 19.5N 65.8W
SHIP 41KTS 50KTS 58KTS 63KTS
DSHP 41KTS 50KTS 58KTS 63KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.5N LONCUR = 41.2W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 8.5N LONM12 = 37.9W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 8.6N LONM24 = 34.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 90NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

00:00z BAM model run.I noticed that the speed of movement is a little bit more slow 18 kts from 22 kts it was at 18:00z.

#89 Postby **storms in NC** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 8:35 pm

00:00z BAM model run.I noticed that the speed of movement is a little bit more slow 18 kts from 22 kts it was at 18:00z.

Well that is a little better to hear.

#90 Postby **storms in NC** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 8:38 pm

Is't the BAMM better a long range than most?

#91 Postby **skysummit** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 8:41 pm

wxmann_91 · #92 Postby **wxmann_91** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 8:43 pm

I'd prefer to use the BAMS model for this system. Models tend to underdo ridges and too quickly erode them, in fact, I'm putting money that this will end up in the Caribbean. Also, I don't like the chances of this system developing in the short term. It looks disorganized and there is too much dry air/SAL.

#93 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 8:44 pm

a gulf storm?

boca · #94 Postby **boca** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 8:45 pm

99L will soon bite the dust like the rest it looks sick still too much SAL.

#95 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 8:46 pm

thats what we've said with all other storms...

Extremeweatherguy · #96 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 8:47 pm

boca wrote:99L will soon bite the dust like the rest it looks sick still too much SAL.

I hope your right, but I highly doubt 99L is just going to disappear. Right now it has a LLC and convection, a system like this takes much more than a little bit of SAL and shear to disappear. Once it reaches the Caribbean it should have a much more favorable environment.

WindRunner · #97 Postby **WindRunner** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 8:52 pm

[quote="wxmann_91]I'd prefer to use the BAMS model for this system. Models tend to underdo ridges and too quickly erode them, in fact, I'm putting money that this will end up in the Caribbean. Also, I don't like the chances of this system developing in the short term. It looks disorganized and there is too much dry air/SAL.[/quote]

Yeah, definately going with the BAMS on this one, if not even a touch further south than that track, as it definately isn't going to be developing fast.

'CaneFreak · #98 Postby **'CaneFreak** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 8:57 pm

What SAL?

mike815 · #99 Postby **mike815** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 8:59 pm

Exactly, there is shear it has to deal with in the short term and maybe a bit of dry air but this is in a moist envirnment overall.

vacanechaser · #100 Postby **vacanechaser** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:03 pm

for those may be wondering

Bams is the shallow model... meaning a weak sysetm

bamm is medium ... meaning devloping systems at mid levels of atmosphere

bamd is deep... meaning.. deep layers of atmosphere.. well developed system..

we are seeing a shallow system tonight..

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

99L Invest E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

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