99L Invest E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

#101 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:04 pm

how do you know it is bams?

Opal storm · #102 Postby **Opal storm** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:05 pm

fact789 wrote:a gulf storm?

Still way too early too tell (imo).

vacanechaser · #103 Postby **vacanechaser** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:06 pm

'CaneFreak wrote:What SAL?

dont you know.. thats the catch phrase... everything is shear and sal....

i blame self induced shear .... moving to fast.. lower levels are moving a little slower.... it is in a moist enviornment... not the best... but certainly not dry...

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

#104 Postby **skysummit** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:06 pm

....and LBAR means shockwave tracking! LOL...the good ole' LBAR never fails to entertain! :lol:

#105 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:06 pm

its expected to slow!

mike815 · #106 Postby **mike815** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:08 pm

In fact it is slowing down and someone posted earlier that the bams did indicate it has slowed.

vacanechaser · #107 Postby **vacanechaser** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:09 pm

fact789 wrote:how do you know it is bams?

because it is not vertically stacked tonight... no real deep thunderstorms or convection.... clear on IR sat images.... weaker system... bams may be the better model at this point..

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

#108 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:09 pm

skysummit wrote:....and LBAR means shockwave tracking! LOL...the good ole' LBAR never fails to entertain!

shockwave tracking?

vacanechaser · #109 Postby **vacanechaser** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:11 pm

skysummit wrote:....and LBAR means shockwave tracking! LOL...the good ole' LBAR never fails to entertain!

the nhc has said they hate the lbar and the a98e... both were going to be tosted soon... last i herd anyway...

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Recurve · #110 Postby **Recurve** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:12 pm

If I may ask what time frame are we talking here? And there is a very BIG IF it does some way finds its self here on the EC. I would like to know for a few reasons. 1 Hubby is going to Gremany the 3 and will be alone. #2 I'm going fishing 5-6-7-8- Would love to catch this a few days befor it comes for the it would be great fishing for Kings. And this is a BIG IF Thanks

There's nothing there yet. Any timeframe is just a guess until there's a circulation center, a forward speed and a bearing, which may never happen. A depression or cyclone moves slower usually than a wave and its convection passing though the zone.

<<my opinion only: NOT a forecast; an amateur observation, not endorsed by any weather agency or Storm2K>>

From the tropical discussion, NHC/TPC 805 PM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006:

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W/60W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING QUICKLY
WEST 20 TO 25 KT. THE WAVE SHOWS A DEFINITE INVERTED V SHAPE AND
LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
MOSTLY W OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 13N-18N
BETWEEN 60W-67W. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE SPREADING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WESTWARD THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND SURROUNDING
ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 77W SOUTH OF
23N MOVING WEST NEAR 20 KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH
AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 14N81W.
PATCHES OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 12N-22N
BETWEEN 75W-85W. GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE...AND SEEMS TO MOVE A HEAVILY
SHEARED AND THUS WEAKER NORTHERN PORTION OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA LATER TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW WHILE THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AND POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE
EXTENT OF THE WAVE CONTINUING TO PROGRESS WESTWARD INTO THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN.

That places the wave (99L) something like 1200 nm east of here. At 20-25 knots, it's like 48 hours away.

It takes about 2.5 hours for a wave to move 1 degree west (near the equator). It's about 20 degrees to go for the wave to get to the western Caribbean.

mike815 · #111 Postby **mike815** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:12 pm

yea i think i heard that as well.

boca · #112 Postby **boca** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:17 pm

People look at 9N and 42W which is part of 99L looks like alittle banding.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

HurricaneHunter914 · #113 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:20 pm

Convection is still on the waning side, hopefully it will continue to wane until the convection decrease.

#114 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:22 pm

ABNT20 KNHC 290221
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
LOCATED ABOUT 1275 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS PERSISTED THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE LOW. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH TWO TROPICAL WAVES OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA HAS DIMINISHED. CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION FROM EITHER SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/FRANKLIN

boca · #115 Postby **boca** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:23 pm

Will 99L be gone by tomorrow. Its the million dollar question.

shaggy · #116 Postby **shaggy** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:23 pm

whats the earliest a recon flight could reach the wave safely?Its moving quick and in a day or so it could be a good thing to have recon check it out!

mike815 · #117 Postby **mike815** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:24 pm

YES JACKPOT!!! and it wasnt Stewart it now mentions it could be a TD

#118 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:24 pm

ncdowneast wrote:whats the earliest a recon flight could reach the wave safely?Its moving quick and in a day or so it could be a good thing to have recon check it out!

When system reaches 55w,then recon will go.

all_we_know_is_FALLING · #119 Postby **all_we_know_is_FALLING** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:25 pm

boca wrote:Will 99L be gone by tomorrow. Its the million dollar question.

I think not. If the NHC thinks a TD can form out of it, then it will most likely still be here tomorrow.

#120 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:26 pm

next thing you know, we have a small Hurricane headed for Florida... AGAIN!

99L Invest E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

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