99L Invest E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

HurricaneHunter914 · #121 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:26 pm

Wow this only formed yesterday and the NHC is already talking about this becoming a possible TD.

wxmann_91 · #122 Postby **wxmann_91** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:27 pm

vacanechaser wrote:
'CaneFreak wrote:What SAL?

dont you know.. thats the catch phrase... everything is shear and sal....

i blame self induced shear .... moving to fast.. lower levels are moving a little slower.... it is in a moist enviornment... not the best... but certainly not dry...

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Self induced shear too, but look at WV and the SAL analysis from CIMSS. Certainly killing off the northern half. And now, it's either gain latitude and enter the heart of the SAL/dry air, or slam into S. America. JMO of course.

Oh, and BTW, before you get all jumpy about the TWO, it said that conditions are only marginally favorable for a TD.

mike815 · #123 Postby **mike815** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:28 pm

Small? they have been huge the past few years.

HurricaneHunter914 · #124 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:28 pm

This won't be experiancing much SAL if it can stay at a low latitude until it nears the Caribbean.

#125 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:29 pm

i ment weak.

boca · #126 Postby **boca** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:30 pm

Scratch my last post. No hurricanes for Florida this year I'm getting shutters and their accordians not cheap. For people with no sense of humor that was a joke about no hurricanes for Florida.

mike815 · #127 Postby **mike815** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:31 pm

oh ok right gotcha now anyways i really dont see this moving into SA not going to happ.

wxmann_91 · #128 Postby **wxmann_91** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:32 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:This won't be experiancing much SAL if it can stay at a low latitude until it nears the Caribbean.

If it stays at a low latitude it will be finished off in S. America. Now that is unlikely, IMO it will definitely gain latitude, which will allow it to enter the SAL. And remember SAL's are often coincident with strong easterly surges which means 99L isn't slowing its forward speed anytime soon, and the self-induced shear isn't really going to abate.

Another sign of the SAL is the E-W elongated nature of the storm. It's pretty much missing its northern half.

Derek Ortt · #129 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:32 pm

I just cannot see this forming that quickly. Outside chance in two days

These types of broad disturbances tend to be quite slow to organize under favorable conditions.

But then again, people in the same field can disagree

HurricaneHunter914 · #130 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:33 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:
vacanechaser wrote:
'CaneFreak wrote:What SAL?

dont you know.. thats the catch phrase... everything is shear and sal....

i blame self induced shear .... moving to fast.. lower levels are moving a little slower.... it is in a moist enviornment... not the best... but certainly not dry...

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Self induced shear too, but look at WV and the SAL analysis from CIMSS. Certainly killing off the northern half. And now, it's either gain latitude and enter the heart of the SAL/dry air, or slam into S. America. JMO of course.

Oh, and BTW, before you get all jumpy about the TWO, it said that conditions are only marginally favorable for a TD.

What they said was that this could become a TD over the next day or two.

shaggy · #131 Postby **shaggy** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:33 pm

as per my ametuer eyes even in the nighttime vis loop the low whether its mid or low is becoming more pronounced and seperated from the convection off to its southwest.The blob at 9N and 43W is showing signs of breaking away and moving WNW instead of due west and this may be the start of it becoming its own free system.Its sustaining convection and looking decent tonight.Its not the deepest cluster of storms but its a start.Lets just see if this piece of energy seperates and becomes the new face of 99L

#132 Postby **brunota2003** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:34 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Wow this only formed yesterday and the NHC is already talking about this becoming a possible TD.

Yesterday? its been around alot longer than yesterday...

wxmann_91 · #133 Postby **wxmann_91** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:34 pm

What they said was that this could become a TD over the next day or two.

Yes, I misread, marginally favorable for further development.

Extremeweatherguy · #134 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:34 pm

I think it was the right move for the NHC to say this in the TWO. I agree fully with them, and feel that this WILL be a TD within 48 hours if it survives the shear/dry air. From there I think it is a Gulf issue if it moves quickly (which it is doing) and an east coast issue if it slows down some (weakness in ridge).

mike815 · #135 Postby **mike815** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:35 pm

Not to be rude but as jesse in here said this system in in a fairly moist enviroment right now and again this isnt going into SA imo.

#136 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:36 pm

what are the chancess of a SFL issue?

Extremeweatherguy · #137 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:36 pm

mike815 wrote:Not to be rude but as jesse in here said this system in in a fairly moist enviroment right now and again this isnt going into SA imo.

I agree. Absolutely NO models shows this heading into SA either.

mike815 · #138 Postby **mike815** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:37 pm

WAY TOO EARLY dude well have to wait and see it hasnt formed yet. we will know more tomorrow.

HurricaneHunter914 · #139 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:37 pm

brunota2003 wrote:
HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Wow this only formed yesterday and the NHC is already talking about this becoming a possible TD.
Yesterday? its been around alot longer than yesterday...

What I meant was that this became an Invest yesterday and now this is already being considered for being a possible TD.

Extremeweatherguy · #140 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:37 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:what are the chancess of a SFL issue?

I think they are pretty good if it can slow down and gain some latitude. As of now though, I think everyone from Mexico to Maine should watch this.

99L Invest E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

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