99L Invest E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2
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- all_we_know_is_FALLING
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- wxmann_91
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mike815 wrote:Not to be rude but as jesse in here said this system in in a fairly moist enviroment right now and again this isnt going into SA imo.
We have different opinions and so disagree. I did say this isn't going to SA I believe.
WV: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/wv-l.jpg
A moist envelope does exist on the eastern side, but to the north there is a lot of dry air being entrained into the circulation.
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- wxman57
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Just because the NHC might say this disturbance "could" become a TD doesn't mean there is a good chance of that. I "could" win the lottery tomorrow, but it's not likely. 99L looked pretty good to me this morning, but it's moving so darn fast now that the convection is dissipating. That's good news. No TD tonight or tomorrow, most certainly. Maybe if it slows down in a few days. But there may not be much left by then.
I can still see a spin near 8.5N/42W, by the way. But no convection around it to speak of. No LLC, most likely, either.
I can still see a spin near 8.5N/42W, by the way. But no convection around it to speak of. No LLC, most likely, either.
Last edited by wxman57 on Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Lets see if it can gain some convection overnight.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Maybe it should be changed to "Possible TD in the next day or two".
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- all_we_know_is_FALLING
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Usually this should start a WNWesterly movement if it forms.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
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- vacanechaser
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boca wrote:If the bermuda high remains strong and if this did develop into a depression or even Chris would it gain latitude or remain supressed to the south?
it would stay south... the weaker the ridge, it would allow it to turn into a weakness and move more north....
Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team
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- Emmett_Brown
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Looking elongated and diffuse. Upper level pattern over the next 48 hours is not ideal. I think this one is another warm up for the real deal in a few weeks. This one could easily end up as a Pacific storm. The only really noteworthy thing about this wave is that it persisted without poofing until now.
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg
Usually the convection should be increasing by now, but instead the convection is continuing a small decreasing trend
Usually the convection should be increasing by now, but instead the convection is continuing a small decreasing trend
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
HurricaneHunter914 wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg
Usually the convection should be increasing by now, but instead the convection is continuing a small decreasing trend
Not exactly, the convective pattern of the system was becoming a tad elongated and the convection was waning at this time yesterday. If it picks up some it may be a little bit later.
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