99L Invest E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[mike815]

yea lol just messin around sooo late thanks

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

Floater 1...

[Thunder44]

383
ABNT20 KNHC 290902
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SAT JUL 29 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE AREA...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...
CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED ABOUT 1100
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS
OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE...AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...
SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[colbroe]

This wave is looking to explode at any moment , pockets of red are alreday showing up on the most recent frames , the waters around the islandsare very warm
This mornings out look calls for it to become a depression later in the day of tomorrow, i would hope that all in the islands keep a close look on this one remember Ivan and Lilly , the same thing can happen here

[Grease Monkey]

Isn't it moving too fast to be able to develope?

[Thunder44]

This wave is looking to explode at any moment , pockets of red are alreday showing up on the most recent frames , the waters around the islandsare very warm
This mornings out look calls for it to become a depression later in the day of tomorrow, i would hope that all in the islands keep a close look on this one remember Ivan and Lilly , the same thing can happen here

I don't see any reds around the low pressure center itself. There's just small cluster of thunderstorms. If you looking at the larger cluster of storms to the west that isn't anywhere near the low.

[Thunder44]

608
WHXX01 KWBC 290736
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992006) ON 20060729 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060729 0600 060729 1800 060730 0600 060730 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 8.9N 43.2W 9.4N 46.2W 10.1N 48.9W 11.0N 51.2W
BAMM 8.9N 43.2W 9.5N 46.1W 10.4N 48.7W 11.5N 50.9W
A98E 8.9N 43.2W 9.2N 46.6W 9.4N 49.8W 9.6N 52.8W
LBAR 8.9N 43.2W 9.3N 46.6W 10.1N 50.1W 11.3N 53.6W
SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 29KTS 35KTS
DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 29KTS 35KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060731 0600 060801 0600 060802 0600 060803 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.0N 53.4W 13.4N 57.0W 14.7N 60.4W 16.5N 63.3W
BAMM 12.6N 52.8W 14.5N 56.0W 16.1N 58.6W 17.8N 60.7W
A98E 10.1N 55.4W 11.1N 60.1W 12.2N 64.6W 13.3N 69.0W
LBAR 12.5N 56.8W 15.0N 62.0W 15.5N 65.4W 20.6N 62.2W
SHIP 41KTS 53KTS 60KTS 61KTS
DSHP 41KTS 53KTS 60KTS 61KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.9N LONCUR = 43.2W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 8.6N LONM12 = 39.8W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 17KT
LATM24 = 8.5N LONM24 = 36.4W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[mobilebay]

This wave is looking to explode at any moment , pockets of red are alreday showing up on the most recent frames , the waters around the islandsare very warm
This mornings out look calls for it to become a depression later in the day of tomorrow, i would hope that all in the islands keep a close look on this one remember Ivan and Lilly , the same thing can happen here

I don't see any reds around the low pressure center itself. There's just small cluster of thunderstorms. If you looking at the larger cluster of storms to the west that isn't anywhere near the low.

Correct. However, I don't think there is any doubt that there is an LLC. It is very pronounced on nightime visible. Once, we get thunderstorm development over that center we will have a Depression. JMHO

[Thunder44]

Isn't it moving too fast to be able to develope?

No. It will develop as long as atmospheric conditions allow it too.

[Thunder44]

This wave is looking to explode at any moment , pockets of red are alreday showing up on the most recent frames , the waters around the islandsare very warm
This mornings out look calls for it to become a depression later in the day of tomorrow, i would hope that all in the islands keep a close look on this one remember Ivan and Lilly , the same thing can happen here

I don't see any reds around the low pressure center itself. There's just small cluster of thunderstorms. If you looking at the larger cluster of storms to the west that isn't anywhere near the low.

Correct. However, I don't think there is any doubt that there is an LLC. It is very pronounced on nightime visible. Once, we get thunderstorm development over that center we will have a Depression. JMHO

Yes, but the convection looks meager right now. I don't know if it can persist throughout the day. Also the LLC doesn't look closed on the west side, on IR-2 imagery. But I'll wait for visibles to confirm that.

[mobilebay]

This wave is looking to explode at any moment , pockets of red are alreday showing up on the most recent frames , the waters around the islandsare very warm
This mornings out look calls for it to become a depression later in the day of tomorrow, i would hope that all in the islands keep a close look on this one remember Ivan and Lilly , the same thing can happen here

I don't see any reds around the low pressure center itself. There's just small cluster of thunderstorms. If you looking at the larger cluster of storms to the west that isn't anywhere near the low.

Correct. However, I don't think there is any doubt that there is an LLC. It is very pronounced on nightime visible. Once, we get thunderstorm development over that center we will have a Depression. JMHO

Yes, but the convection looks meager right now. I don't know if it can persist throughout the day. Also the LLC doesn't look closed on the west side, on IR-2 imagery. But I'll wait for visibles to confirm that.

Yea. I can buy that. If this thing does not get a burst of convection sometime today it probably won't make it. Just have to wait and see. I'm tired of waiting.

[storms in NC]

Will the northen movement is started. It has moved up .04. Most of the day yesterday was 8.5 now it is 8.9 Not much of a jump but it is a start.

[cycloneye]

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W SOUTH OF 18N
MOVING WEST 20 KT. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE
WAVE FROM 8N TO 9N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 40W AND 47W.
THE LOW CENTER CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GRADUALLY
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION MAY FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WESTWARD ABOUT 17 KT.

8 AM Special Feature Discussion

[Derek Ortt]

maybe I'm not seeing something (which could be as I'm about to head back to sleep for a few hours), but I am not seeing much organization at all with this feature. Atmosphere appears a little too stable based upon the inability to fire up convection

[Thunder44]

Will the northen movement is started. It has moved up .04. Most of the day yesterday was 8.5 now it is 8.9 Not much of a jump but it is a start.

Yes, also a gain in latitude can probably be taken as a sign of further development. Assuming it continues to develop into a TC, it will probably make past 10N before reaching 55W.

[cycloneye]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41041

Nothing unusual at this bouy located well to the north of the low center.East winds and the pressures are not falling.I would want this bouy to be located at 9n to see the real data from this system.

[Thunder44]

9z analysis show wind Shear has decreased to around 10kts or less over the small center. Nice upper-level ridge just to the north.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

Some new thunderstorm clusters developing over the center now.

[ThunderMate]

Are there any maps with model plots?

[storms in NC]

It is geting that look uall. look at the last few frames you can see it

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[HURAKAN]

I don't know what "that look" means, but it's looking really bad at the moment.