99L Invest E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[bvigal]

The analysist should have seen and thought of that. If this wave has only moved 4 degrees in the next 3 days...I'll shave my head and post the pics on the internet.

Thanks! You answered my question while I was writing it up!

[Aquawind]

The only real way to change it is for the low to gain some latitude and for the pressure to lower a bit so that the convergence increases near it due to the pressure gradient increasing.

Sounds logical. Basically it needs to seperate hence gain latitude and intensify to consolidate itself. That's of course a key issue with many systems so attached to the ITCZ. It's just that the enhanced convergence it not making it any easier for the pressure to lower..

[rainstorm]

isnt it rather far south?

[Air Force Met]

Now I wouldn't completely write this system off, as it does have a pretty good vorticity center, but I think that chances of development appear to be diminishing at least over the next day or two.

Wow..three mets in agreement. Yikes. The flames have frozen.

Yeah...It's not written off...and of all the actual "waves" that we have followed...this has the best chance to develop in a classical sense (not like Alberto did...or like his ugly little sister)...a good wave to a good looking depression...etc.

It's gonna take another 36-48 hours I think...maybe a little sooner...maybe...before it can get the convection it needs...plus you have to normal lag time for upgrade...etc.

Those forecast maps were funny. Guess the analyst never heard of continuity.

Darn map readers.

[wxman57]

...... If this wave has only moved 4 degrees in the next 3 days...I'll shave my head and post the pics on the internet.

AFM, I seem to remember that you don't have much hair to begin with?

Just looked at the maps in quesiton -- the disturbance moved 7-8 degrees in the past 24 hours and it is still racing along. It may pass that 24 hour forecast position by this evening and reach the easern Caribbean Sea within 48 hours.

Hey, I'll shave my head, too, if it moves that slow! But I dont' have much hair either...

[Air Force Met]

isnt it rather far south?

Yeah...and that's its "other" problem.

It will gain some latitude and it is far enough north to have some coriolis. If it was at 12N or so...I think it would be a TD by now...and going ape...


But it ain't.

It's funny this year. Here we are...pretty much August...and we are still looking at the ITCZ and wave centers below 10N. Yikes. Once the Cape Verde season kicks in...that should mean a lot less fish and a lot more headed west.

[Air Force Met]

...... If this wave has only moved 4 degrees in the next 3 days...I'll shave my head and post the pics on the internet.

AFM, I seem to remember that you don't have much hair to begin with?

Shhhhh.


Actually...that's why it's a no-lose statement. 1) It ain't heppening so...I could look like Jon Bon Jovi and not be worried...and 2) It means changing from the shaver to the razor for a day if I do lose.


BWAHAHAHAHAHA

[boca]

Air Force do you the circulation with 99L will be gone time it reaches the islands.

[Air Force Met]

Air Force do you the circulation with 99L will be gone time it reaches the islands.

If it does not get any convection with it...or at least a good convective burst...then yes...it will weaken significantly before then

The only reason it is looking like it is...is because of all the convection it had before that spun it up.

[Stormavoider]

Is there a second rotational center near 8.5N 47W?

[wxman57]

Is there a second rotational center near 8.5N 47W?

I see the primary center near 8.5-9N and 46W. Clouds are moving north-south at 47W.

[Thunder44]

Is there a second rotational center near 8.5N 47W?

I don't see it. Just clusters of thunderstorms being caused by low-level convergence and divergence aloft.

[kenl01]

isnt it rather far south?

Yeah...and that's its "other" problem.

It will gain some latitude and it is far enough north to have some coriolis. If it was at 12N or so...I think it would be a TD by now...and going ape...


But it ain't.

It's funny this year. Here we are...pretty much August...and we are still looking at the ITCZ and wave centers below 10N. Yikes. Once the Cape Verde season kicks in...that should mean a lot less fish and a lot more headed west.

Yeaugh its pretty late for the wave train to still be that far south. The way it looks it might take until after mid august until the Cape Verde season begins. Heard alot of reports of warm water accumulating in the EPAC and the west coast of South America which, if sustained, could enhance the shear this season. Maybe an emerging weak El-Nino ?
I guess time will tell.

[Stormavoider]

Is there a second rotational center near 8.5N 47W?

I see the primary center near 8.5-9N and 46W. Clouds are moving north-south at 47W.

Now that I see an update, I should have said 8N 48.5W.

[wxman57]

Is there a second rotational center near 8.5N 47W?

I see the primary center near 8.5-9N and 46W. Clouds are moving north-south at 47W.

Now that I see an update, I should have said 8N 48.5W.

Do you have lat/lon lines every 1 degree on the satellite image you're viewing? I don't see any circulation except for close to 9N/46W.

[Stormavoider]

No

[Stormavoider]

No

[wxman57]

No

Here, this image may help:

[Stormavoider]

Thanks 57. 8.5N 48W

[Stormavoider]

No

Here, this image may help:

Is that imagery available to the public?