99L Invest E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[Thunder44]

Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 11:30 am EDT on July 29, 2006


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
A low pressure area...associated with a tropical wave...is located
about 1000 miles east-southeast of the southern Windward Islands.
While the associated shower activity has decreased this morning...
there is still potential for development...and a tropical
depression could form during the next day or two as the system
moves westward at about 20 mph.
Shower activity has increased this morning in association with a
westward moving tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea.
However...there are no signs of organization...and additional
development...if any...should be slow to occur.
Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Sunday.
$$
Forecaster Beven

[Evil Jeremy]

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
ABNT20 KNHC 291510
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT JUL 29 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS LOCATED
ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS.
WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED THIS MORNING...
THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks like we have two potential systems on the table. I predict at least one of them becomes Chris before the beginning of next week.

[storms in NC]

It is pulling moister up from the southwest

[kenl01]

I don't expect the next storm anytime soon..........

[Extremeweatherguy]

I don't expect the next storm anytime soon..........

We'll see..

[storms in NC]

I think we will soon. and I would say Sunday afternoon and it would be this one. Maybe only a TD and going into SA but have to wait and see if thier forcast is right with it turning wnw.

[cheezyWXguy]

in the last few frames of sat. imagery, it looks like it started to take a turn closer to WNW, now appearing to be moving just north of due west

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Recon for Monday (tentative)

0945 AM EDT SAT 29 JUL 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 30/1100Z TO 31/1100Z JUL 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-060

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST NEAR
12.0N 059.0W FOR 31/1800Z.
3. REMARKS.....BEGIN 6-HOURLY FIXES 01/0600Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
CDL

[storms in NC]

I seen that. could be a wobble. See what the next few frames do. As I said above it is getting more moister now from the west.

[HurricaneHunter914]

I say TC cancel for 99L, time to watch the caribbean wave.

[mike815]

why do u say that lol no wheres near

[Stormavoider]

Is this a typo????

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float1.html

[cheezyWXguy]

you sure are a quick mind-changer, hurricanehunter. Dont write it off yet...conditions are supposed to become more favorable and spotty convection has began to reappear in the system

[mike815]

yea man its no wheres near gone

[Opal storm]

Our wave is looking kinda sick this morning,I definitely do not expect this to become a TD over the weekend.Maybe early next week when this reaches the Carib...IF it reaches the Carib.Right now we may want to keep a closer eye on the Carib wave,it's closer to home and looks better than this.I am not writing off 99L,but in the short term nothing is going to come out of it (imo).

[HurricaneHunter914]

you sure are a quick mind-changer, hurricanehunter. Dont write it off yet...conditions are supposed to become more favorable and spotty convection has began to reappear in the system

That's one of my problems, I just like to change my mind whenever a system either starts to look better or worse. Yeah this could change over the next several days, but I'm going to watch the possible Invest in the Caribbean until this one can get more organized.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Our wave is looking kinda sick this morning,I definitely do not expect this to become a TD over the weekend.Maybe early next week when this reaches the Carib...IF it reaches the Carib.Right now we may want to keep a closer eye on the Carib wave,it's closer to home and looks better than this.I am not writing off 99L,but in the short term nothing is going to come out of it (imo).

Well if the NHC says it could become a TD within a day or two, then I think there is always a chance. These systems can change in a blink of an eye. I do agree that we should be watching the Caribbean wave more closely though for now.

[MortisFL]

Well said Opal.

Our wave is looking kinda sick this morning,I definitely do not expect this to become a TD over the weekend.Maybe early next week when this reaches the Carib...IF it reaches the Carib.Right now we may want to keep a closer eye on the Carib wave,it's closer to home and looks better than this.I am not writing off 99L,but in the short term nothing is going to come out of it (imo).

[HurricaneHunter914]

The thing is, is that this system needs to get out of the danger area quick. Like right now its surronded by shear, dry air, SAL, and SA.