99L Invest E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[Stormavoider]

I still have a hunch a second center is trying to form around 8N 50W.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

50W is the farthest it can go. Farther than that, there is shear and land.

[Extremeweatherguy]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF

50W is the farthest it can go. Farther than that, there is shear and land.

looks like the shear is really decreasing in the Caribbean and Gulf. This may not be good for our system over near PR.

[Scorpion]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF

50W is the farthest it can go. Farther than that, there is shear and land.

I'd love to see the shear map that shows shear in the Caribbean, as there is absolutely none. The invest will slip north of South America and be in very favorable upper level conditions. However, dry air might still be a problem.

[brunota2003]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF

50W is the farthest it can go. Farther than that, there is shear and land.

I'd love to see the shear map that shows shear in the Caribbean, as there is absolutely none. The invest will slip north of South America and be in very favorable upper level conditions. However, dry air might still be a problem.

so, is it just me, or are you calling 20 knots of shear nothing?: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html There is shear in the Caribbean...wow Head-on, Apply directly to the forehead (I hate that commerical...)
EDIT: forgot to say that the map is from 8 A.M. this morning, and that the highest shear I noticed after typing, is 30 knots in the Caribbean...

[storms in NC]

ABNT20 KNHC 291510
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT JUL 29 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS LOCATED
ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS.
WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED THIS MORNING...
THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

from what I read 99L will form before the one by PR does

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

Convection is still on the decrease while the Caribbean system continues to show signs of increased convection and some organization.

[Scorpion]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF

50W is the farthest it can go. Farther than that, there is shear and land.

I'd love to see the shear map that shows shear in the Caribbean, as there is absolutely none. The invest will slip north of South America and be in very favorable upper level conditions. However, dry air might still be a problem.

so, is it just me, or are you calling 20 knots of shear nothing?: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html There is shear in the Caribbean...wow Head-on, Apply directly to the forehead (I hate that commerical...)
EDIT: forgot to say that the map is from 8 A.M. this morning, and that the highest shear I noticed after typing, is 30 knots in the Caribbean...

In the northern Caribbean sure there is a little shear on the order of 20 kts. But not in the southern Caribbean where 99L is headed.

[storms in NC]

in the last few frames of sat. imagery, it looks like it started to take a turn closer to WNW, now appearing to be moving just north of due west

Still showing wnw. Almost to the 10

[HurricaneHunter914]

Still has lot of shear to go through and I'm still waiting for an increase in convection and organization.

[Scorpion]

Still has lot of shear to go through and I'm still waiting for an increase in convection and organization.

Not true. The shear on that map near South America is actually the leading edge of the convection of 99L. 99L will not get hampered by that. 99L has 15-20 kts of shear at most to contend with in the short term.

[storms in NC]

Well off to work see you all back here at 11pm. Have fun

[Aric Dunn]

Still has lot of shear to go through and I'm still waiting for an increase in convection and organization.

Not true. The shear on that map near South America is actually the leading edge of the convection of 99L. 99L will not get hampered by that. 99L has 15-20 kts of shear at most to contend with in the short term.

not only thats its moving with the shear so it is reduced

[HurricaneHunter914]

Still, the convection needs to increase and the organization needs to be alot better.

[HURAKAN]

I don't see Chris here, at least not yet. Not in a few days if it occurs.

[Aric Dunn]

Still, the convection needs to increase and the organization needs to be alot better.

agreed ..but its not going till it moves away from the ITCZ and that trof/boundy that is not allowing it to close off completly on the SW side
we do not have a close low yet

[kenl01]

Jeff Masters had a good analysis this morning and the reasons why it does not look too good for development prospects:

http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/ ... amp=200607

The tropical wave near 9N, 46W, about 1000 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles Islands, continues to show signs that it may organize into a tropical depression. While we don't have a good recent QuikSCAT pass to look at, this morning's visible satellite imagery shows a pronounced surface circulation. However, the amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has greatly decreased since yesterday, due to the ingestion of dry Saharan air from the north (Figure 1). Dry air will continue to be a problem for the wave the farther north it goes. The forecast tracks from the latest computer models (Figure 2) show a mostly westward track, but the wave is expected to slowly gain latitude, putting it more into the influence of this very dry air from Africa.

In the wave's favor, it is under only 5-10 knots of wind shear, and this shear is forecast to remain weak over the next two days. As the wave approaches the Lesser Antilles Islands on Monday, shear is forecast to increase again. Sea surface temperatures are favorable--28 C, about 2 degrees C above the threshold of 26 C needed for tropical storm formation.

The long term outlook for the system is not favorable, due to the large amount of dry air to its north and the increasing wind shear likely to affect the system once it nears the islands. In addition, the wave is expected to cross into the southeast Caribbean. This region is climatologically unfavorable for tropical cyclones, because the land mass of South America cuts off the inflow of moist air from the south, replacing it with drier continental air.

None of the computer models develop this wave into a tropical storm.

[trendal]

Buoy #41041 in the mid atlantic looks like it is directly under this system right now:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41041

Edit: actually it looks like it's a few degrees north of the center...

[trendal]

Pressure has been dropping around buoy 41041 for the last few hours:

Time Pres(mb) Change(mb)
09:50 - 1014.7 +0.0
10:50 - 1014.3 -0.4
11:50 - 1014.0 -0.6
12:50 - 1013.3 -1.4

[hurricanetrack]

Still just a hair too early. The 12Z GFS is much more aggressive with developing systems. Once we see the other globals start showing this on a run to run basis, I will buy in to the Cape Verde season beginning. Right now, it's just not time yet.