99L Invest E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

Derek Ortt · #301 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 12:23 pm

Not much there anymore... probably should no longer be classified as an invest

Aric Dunn · #302 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 12:28 pm

Ok here is the problem ..we do not and i repeat we do not have a completly closed low.. that is our main problem here yes very good curvature and some banding on the east side but the west and sw side is not closed.. because of that boudry/trof/ITCZ and until it breaks away from that it will not form!!! and in combination with the dry air and the lack of a closed low the convection is limited becasue we do not have complete convergence!! the SW side is limiting the inflow....
this image will show you what i mean... the blue X is showing that it is not closed off ( yeah there is turning there but since that feature is there it wont)
the pink circle with the X is showing the Boundry feature /ITCZ that is limiting the SW side and until it breaks from there Nothing will happen
the red arrows are the surface winds it clearly shows no W and wsw IN FLOW/Banding and without it we will not have TC form
http://img125.imageshack.us/my.php?image=99ldo6.jpg

cheezyWXguy · #303 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 12:29 pm

i dunno...its starting to get some convection on its western edge...theres a bit of energy left over from the trof and it looks like 99L is absorbing it

Stormavoider · #304 Postby **Stormavoider** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 12:32 pm

I think there is a new center SE of the old.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

#305 Postby **storms in NC** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 12:33 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Ok here is the problem ..we do not and i repeat we do not have a completly closed low.. that is our main problem here yes very good curvature and some banding on the east side but the west and sw side is not closed.. because of that boudry/trof/ITCZ and until it breaks away from that it will not form!!! and in combination with the dry air and the lack of a closed low the convection is limited becasue we do not have complete convergence!! the SW side is limiting the inflow....
this image will show you what i mean... the blue X is showing that it is not closed off ( yeah there is turning there but since that feature is there it wont)
the pink circle with the X is showing the Boundry feature /ITCZ that is limiting the SW side and until it breaks from there Nothing will happen
the red arrows are the surface winds it clearly shows no W and wsw IN FLOW/Banding and without it we will not have TC form
http://img125.imageshack.us/my.php?image=99ldo6.jpg

Very nice job

Aric Dunn · #306 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 12:35 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:i dunno...its starting to get some convection on its western edge...theres a bit of energy left over from the trof and it looks like 99L is absorbing it

maybe so .. but we will have to wait .. that is what is needed to get this going.... but you notice how on the west side were the north winds are running into the boundry....?? they are now turning more NE which means what ever closing off that was trying to happen is no longer occuring it may be absorbing it and trying to restructure but that is about it

#307 Postby **storms in NC** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 12:35 pm

Stormavoider wrote:I think there is a new center SE of the old.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

You have said this a few times today. No theres not.

Aric Dunn · #308 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 12:38 pm

storms in NC wrote:
Stormavoider wrote:I think there is a new center SE of the old.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

You have said this a few times today. No theres not.

what you are seeing is the Normal ITCZ .. it often produces little swirls like that notice on my image the boundry or ITCZ to the north? notice that the winds are ene to NE and on the south the winds are sw .. that is casing that little swirl just diregard it.

Stormavoider · #309 Postby **Stormavoider** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 12:39 pm

storms in NC wrote:
Stormavoider wrote:I think there is a new center SE of the old.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

You have said this a few times today. No theres not.

I think it will be said some more.

Isn't Wallace NW of Wilmington?

cheezyWXguy · #310 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 12:40 pm

what?

#311 Postby **storms in NC** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 12:42 pm

No North east to where I stay any way
:wink:

Aric Dunn · #312 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 12:43 pm

ummm ok lol

#313 Postby **storms in NC** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 12:49 pm

Am about 20 miles from Jacksonville on hwy 41

Stormavoider · #314 Postby **Stormavoider** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 12:50 pm

storms in NC wrote:Am about 20 miles from Jacksonville on hwy 41

King fishing heaven

Aric Dunn · #315 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 12:51 pm

ok mean center... is located very close to 46W 9.5N
Link

EDIT: Changed URL to a link (by Senorpepr)

Ola · #316 Postby **Ola** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 12:52 pm

hurricanetrack wrote:Still just a hair too early. The 12Z GFS is much more aggressive with developing systems. Once we see the other globals start showing this on a run to run basis, I will buy in to the Cape Verde season beginning. Right now, it's just not time yet.

??????

The GFS does not develop this system.

Aric Dunn · #317 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 12:54 pm

ok well from the looks of it, it may be trying to get a little bettter organized .. with that boundry possible breaking up.. there seems to be a defined center but not entirely closed yet but it seems to be trending that way... we will have to watch it closely as i know everyone will

Extremeweatherguy · #318 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 12:55 pm

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44 SOUTH OF 15N
MOVING WEST 20 KT. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE
WAVE FROM 8N TO 9N. ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW/WAVE. WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED THIS MORNING...THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_12Z.gif

The forecast brings this down to 1010mb later on.

#319 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 12:58 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44 SOUTH OF 15N
MOVING WEST 20 KT. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE
WAVE FROM 8N TO 9N. ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW/WAVE. WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED THIS MORNING...THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_12Z.gif

The forecast brings this down to 1010mb later on.

not to be critical...20kts and 20mph are 2 seperate things

Aric Dunn · #320 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 1:00 pm

fact789 wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44 SOUTH OF 15N
MOVING WEST 20 KT. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE
WAVE FROM 8N TO 9N. ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW/WAVE. WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED THIS MORNING...THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_12Z.gif

The forecast brings this down to 1010mb later on.

not to be critical...20kts and 20mph are 2 seperate things

LOL they made a typo

99L Invest E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

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