99L Invest E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[Dean4Storms]

This wave looks DOA for the Carib. as far as any TC development is concerned, next.

[Extremeweatherguy]

This wave looks DOA for the Carib. as far as any TC development is concerned, next.

ok, well as long as the NHC says this could become a TD, I don't think it should be written off.

[Frank2]

Derek, I have to stay with my original gut feeling that this is (was) nothing more than an ITCZ disturbance - even the below loop shows the remnant circulation center on the tail of the area of convection soon to be crossing into South America:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

I didn't say it because I know as much (my just being an admin/met tech person back in those days), but, it (the ITCZ disturbance factor) was something that I was frequently told by some at the old NHEML/NHC who are now either retired or have passed on (John Hope, Stan Wright, Dr. Rosenthal, etc.)...

One time in the Summer of '81, we were all excited about an area of disturbed weather northeast of Puerto Rico, and, we even worked all night, waiting for the system to develop, but, Dr. Rosenthal came into the office the next morning, at his usual time (since he was more sensible than we), took one look at a visible photograph, and said, "Go home, Frank!"

Needless to say, he was right - the system did not develop...

May they all rest in peace...

Frank

[Aric Dunn]

Derek, I have to stay with my original gut feeling that this is (was) nothing more than an ITCZ disturbance - even the below loop shows the remnant circulation center on the tail of the area of convection soon to be crossing into South America:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

I didn't say it because I know as much (my just being an admin/met tech person back in those days), but, it (the ITCZ disturbance factor) was something that I was frequently told by some at the old NHEML/NHC who are now either retired or have passed on (John Hope, Stan Wright, Dr. Rosenthal, etc.)...

One time in the Summer of '81, we were all excited about an area of disturbed weather northeast of Puerto Rico, and, we even worked all night, waiting for the system to develop, but, Dr. Rosenthal came into the office the next morning, at his usual time (since he was more sensible than we), took one look at a visible photograph, and said, "Go home, Frank!"

Needless to say, he was right - the system did not develop...

May they all rest in peace...

Frank

that is not the remant circulation ... it is about 46w 9.5 N
I do however agree that it is caught in the ITCZ but from the looks of it .. it maybe trending away we will have to watch it

[Frank2]

Yes, that's the one I was referring to - it's on the tail end of ITCZ convection...

Frank

[Aric Dunn]

ok well i think we are seeing the beginnings of the center closing off.. well at least that is the though t right now.. that boundry i have been talking about is bending north and looks to be breaking a bit.. and again the trend continues .. we will be seeing a developming system as is moves away from the ITCZ

one more the the center that i pointed out appears to getting better organized and there is increases convection right on the NW side of it and i also see lots of clouds and moisture being pulled in the the SW and S side now where before it was not happening http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

center 9.5 N 46.2 west

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://image.weather.com/images/maps/tr ... 20x486.jpg

SSTs are warm enough for development, all we need is for the SAL to stop harrasing this poor wave.

[Aric Dunn]

Yes, that's the one I was referring to - it's on the tail end of ITCZ convection...

Frank

yes ok but one key point it is a little further north .. of the boundry or ITCZ to its WSW the boundry to its north or the rest of the wave axis is coming around to a more typical postion for a system that is developing..

but the trend must continue .. we need to watch for that boundry to or the system to move away from the ITCZ..

[Extremeweatherguy]

ok well i think we are seeing the beginnings of the center closing off.. well at least that is the though t right now.. that boundry i have been talking about is bending north and looks to be breaking a bit.. and again the trend continues .. we will be seeing a developming system as is moves away from the ITCZ

one more the the center that i pointed out appears to getting better organized and there is increases convection right on the NW side of it and i also see lots of clouds and moisture being pulled in the the SW and S side now where before it was not happening http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

center 9.5 N 46.2 west

I see that too. I think this is trying to get it's act together.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looking better:

[Frank2]

I really don't believe it'll develop, but, we'll see...

[trendal]

Pressure still dropping on buoy 41041...down to 1012.9mb

[HurricaneHunter914]

The NHC have this at 1011mb according to a 2PM. Looks like 99L is trying to get better organized. I still need some more proof that this is organizing.

[Aric Dunn]

ok everyone its going ... i believe that we are seeing the process right now... the center is closed off... i am seeing banding inwards on the westside of that boundry i have talking about i also see banding coming in from the SW which was not there just 4 hours ago... i also see small popcorm showers NW of that boundry which was not there before do to that boundry .. the signs are there .. we need to keep a eye on it as well as the convection right near the center that is now tight... has continued to increase

[kenl01]

This system reminds me of Fran of 1990, which remained far to the south. It eventually dissipated after its remnants moved into Venezuela after entraining dry air from the south into the circulation. Plus there was also some shear in progress as it moved into the Southern Caribbean.

[Derek Ortt]

Looking better?

What am I missing. All I see is a relatively weak tropical wave that is unable to produce convection near the wave axis

[HurricaneHunter914]

Derek, I'm just wondering. Are you always negative about waves no matter how good they look?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Derek, I'm just wondering. Are you always negative about waves no matter how good they look?

yeah, I noticed that too. Derek, why do you give nothing a chance?

[Aric Dunn]

Looking better?

What am I missing. All I see is a relatively weak tropical wave that is unable to produce convection near the wave axis

that may be changing.....
i can see a defined center at 46.2 w 9.5N .. which has not been present at all.... the boundry/ ITCZ that has been sitting on its west side is lifting north and there is more convection beginnig to fire right around the center.... as well on the other side of the boundry i can see inflow on the west and Sw side which again as not been present .. since its location with the ITCZ.. but the overall circulation looks better..

[cheezyWXguy]

Its probably because none of the invests out here have made it...but this ones different. Were closer to August now, shear is low, convection is makeing a comeback and the low is beginning to close off...I think this ones gonna make it