99L Invest E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[HURAKAN]

So far this season conditions have not been very favorable for development in the Atlantic, especially between the Lesser Antilles and Africa due to dry air, SAL, and wind shear. Therefore, this supports Derek's statement that the waves (looking good or bad) so far have not gotten a real chance to develop. Things change and the best (or worse) is coming over the next 8 - 12 weeks.

[Andrew92]

Just a question here. Is it at all odd that there is not a number of TD's, TS's or canes up to August 1st? This has been a fabulous cane season so far. It seems in the past few years, we have seen a lot more action at this time.

Last 10 years by this time:

1996: Cesar had just become Douglas....OK, so we had 2 hurricanes by this time
1997: We had just entered a month-plus-long lull, another season that started early
1998: Alex had finally just formed from the first depression of the year
1999: Only Arlene and a short-lived TD that ran into Mexico
2000: Two depressions, no storms yet
2001: Only Allison and a weak fish TD
2002: Arthur off the east coast is the only activity so far by this time
2003: Two hurricanes had formed, Claudette and Danny. Another quick start
2004: NOTHING
2005: Need I discuss? Franklin FINALLY becomes extratropical, but Gert has also come and gone

Currently, we have seen two tropical storms, no hurricanes. This is a pretty average start for the last ten years, really.

-Andrew92

[perk]

AFM i for the most part agree with your take on 99L, but all pro mets do not call it like it is. Maybe you should say that you call it is.

[Andrew92]

Also over the last ten years, for CV activity:

1996: Bertha
1997: NONE
1998: Alex (which had just formed yesterday then)
1999: NONE
2000: TD #2 (which formed in June and fizzled fast)
2001: TD #2 (another quick fizzler)
2002: NONE
2003: TD #2 (in June, need I go further?)
2004: NONE
2005: I suppose Emily counts, but it didn't even get going until it reached the Caribbean

Currently, we haven't yet had a CV storm. Patience, guys. This is normal, normal, normal so far.

-Andrew92

[Extremeweatherguy]

you know what. I sure hope we don't let our guard down, move onto another issue, and then all the sudden we have hurricane Chris on our hands. Seems like everyone gives up on these things so quickly even when the NHC is saying this could be a TD within 48 hours!

[senorpepr]

you know what. I sure hope we don't let our guard down, move onto another issue, and then all the sudden we have hurricane Chris on our hands. Seems like everyone gives up on these things so quickly even when the NHC is saying this could be a TD within 48 hours!

I don't think anyone is saying "move on." However, the idea is "don't let your freak flag fly over a simple wave." They are saying, "remain vigilant, but don't start calling it TD 03L or Chris until it becomes such." The key for the tropics is persistence. Persistence says "simmer down -- this isn't going to develop yet," and that is exactly what people should be doing.

It's not about "giving up" on a wave. If you wet your pants over every little blob of cumulus in the Atlantic, you're going to end up with a lot of laundry to do. Save your pants and your washing machine by just waiting and watching.

[mike815]

well said well said

[SouthFloridawx]

Once we get more convection which.. will happen, then it will be more organized. Looking at the visible loop it appears that we have a low and mid level circulation. It looks like the convection is already starting to pick up.

[Eyewall]

you know what. I sure hope we don't let our guard down, move onto another issue, and then all the sudden we have hurricane Chris on our hands. Seems like everyone gives up on these things so quickly even when the NHC is saying this could be a TD within 48 hours!

I don't think anyone is saying "move on." However, the idea is "don't let your freak flag fly over a simple wave." They are saying, "remain vigilant, but don't start calling it TD 03L or Chris until it becomes such." The key for the tropics is persistence. Persistence says "simmer down -- this isn't going to develop yet," and that is exactly what people should be doing.

It's not about "giving up" on a wave. If you wet your pants over every little blob of cumulus in the Atlantic, you're going to end up with a lot of laundry to do. Save your pants and your washing machine by just waiting and watching.

Nice

[ROCK]

Just had a thought. Since 99L is booking west at a high rate, what are the odds it merges with all the convection situated south of PR? 99L is lacking convection and this wave / blob of convection could be what it needs to get going. Just a thought, since on sat it looks like it catching up with that mess in the carib.

[x-y-no]

Just had a thought. Since 99L is booking west at a high rate, what are the odds it merges with all the convection situated south of PR? 99L is lacking convection and this wave / blob of convection could be what it needs to get going. Just a thought, since on sat it looks like it catching up with that mess in the carib.

No chance.

[ROCK]

Just had a thought. Since 99L is booking west at a high rate, what are the odds it merges with all the convection situated south of PR? 99L is lacking convection and this wave / blob of convection could be what it needs to get going. Just a thought, since on sat it looks like it catching up with that mess in the carib.

No chance.

thanks for that insightful comment...

[vacanechaser]

Just had a thought. Since 99L is booking west at a high rate, what are the odds it merges with all the convection situated south of PR? 99L is lacking convection and this wave / blob of convection could be what it needs to get going. Just a thought, since on sat it looks like it catching up with that mess in the carib.

No chance.

thanks for that insightful comment...

now had you asked a question about global warming,,,, he would have writen an esay!!!! lol... j/j x-y-no


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[x-y-no]

Just had a thought. Since 99L is booking west at a high rate, what are the odds it merges with all the convection situated south of PR? 99L is lacking convection and this wave / blob of convection could be what it needs to get going. Just a thought, since on sat it looks like it catching up with that mess in the carib.

No chance.

thanks for that insightful comment...

OK, if you really want more ...

The two systems are 20 degrees of longitude apart. Somewhat over 1100 nautical miles.

The wave south of PR will be over the Yucatan by the time 99L is entering the Caribbean.

[Air Force Met]

I'm not bashing the pro-mets, I'm just asking Derek why he has said to about most of the waves so far tis year they have a very low chance at development whether they look good or not. I never said this wave looked good in my earlier post I said,"No matter how good A wave looks" I didn't say THIS wave looks.

Here's a question. How many have developed?

Seems a negative opinion has been warranted!

[TS Zack]

We need a hurricane so all this can stop...

No need to argue about waves, everyone can speak their own mind. Some people think it will develop others don't. Let time prove someone right!

[OURAGAN]

8.9N/46.8W/1008 MB ON NRL, and convection is increasing, we have to watch it.

[Janice]

Thanks guys for all the data.....

[wxman57]

Derek, I'm just wondering. Are you always negative about waves no matter how good they look?

We're just being realistic. We don't sit on the edge of our seats hoping that any little disturbance will develop so we can have something to track. Lots of other work to do. I've always said that when I see something that looks like it's really going to develop that I'll make it clear here.

[Dean4Storms]

This wave looks DOA for the Carib. as far as any TC development is concerned, next.

ok, well as long as the NHC says this could become a TD, I don't think it should be written off.

Could being the key word here. It COULD develop if it sustained Deep Convection in a centralized area for at least 24-48 hrs. It COULD develop if it didn't have the SAL to contend with. It COULD develop if it moves more NW before it either hits SA or brushes its northern coast. It COULD develop.

Nobody is writing it off, my point was that it will not arrive in the Carib. as a TC!