99L Invest E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

#381 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 3:30 pm

Frank2 wrote:Derek, I have to stay with my original gut feeling that this is (was) nothing more than an ITCZ disturbance - even the below loop shows the remnant circulation center on the tail of the area of convection soon to be crossing into South America:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

I didn't say it because I know as much (my just being an admin/met tech person back in those days), but, it (the ITCZ disturbance factor) was something that I was frequently told by some at the old NHEML/NHC who are now either retired or have passed on (John Hope, Stan Wright, Dr. Rosenthal, etc.)...

One time in the Summer of '81, we were all excited about an area of disturbed weather northeast of Puerto Rico, and, we even worked all night, waiting for the system to develop, but, Dr. Rosenthal came into the office the next morning, at his usual time (since he was more sensible than we), took one look at a visible photograph, and said, "Go home, Frank!"

Needless to say, he was right - the system did not develop...

May they all rest in peace...

Frank

gee, the 1980s must of been nice. but were not in the 80s anymore, so things can change!

#382 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 3:36 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:you know what. I sure hope we don't let our guard down, move onto another issue, and then all the sudden we have hurricane Chris on our hands. Seems like everyone gives up on these things so quickly even when the NHC is saying this could be a TD within 48 hours!

Who's giving up on it?

What's kinda upsetting me is all the people hyping a garbage looking wave.

I mean...come on...let's at least inject some realism into this discussion....but it seems that when you do that people say you are saying its dead and you are being negative.

Look...from a pro-met point of view. It's called being realistic and not -removed- something to develop (as wxman57 said) just so I'll have something to track and won't be bored.

Maybe the reason we are more realistic is because when something DOES develop...it means WORK for us...NOT play. That means I have to be real about what I see....as does every other met on here who has a vested interest in the tropics and who forecasts for clients in tropical areas.

Trust me...my "customer" (US NORTHCOM and ARNORTH) is all the time keeping me real...and my area of responsibility extends from Brownsville, Texas to Eastport, Maine...

That's a lot of REALism.

#383 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 3:37 pm

Also folks remember that the low forecasted by the globals models to be the first Cape Verde low was NEVER this one.

Our first low that could significantly develop will probably be the wave about ready to roll off Africa tomorrow.

HurricaneHunter914 · #384 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 3:48 pm

The models aren't always right, you can't look to the models all the time. Some times you just have to look at what's in the Tropics now and see which waves could develop. Right now 99L has a slim chance of development because of SAL, but as soon as it clears the Atlantic conditions could become more favorable.

vacanechaser · #385 Postby **vacanechaser** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 3:50 pm

i was keeping a positive attitude about it just because i have seen systems develop when they have looked like this and others have down played it or whatever... now, i am losing hope that this will develop much more.... here is what i am seeing

in the visible loop, you can see an increase in the cloud cover and thunderstorms.. none of which have been pulled into the center... those storms have collapsed and outflow bounderies are evident now in the ower levels from those collapsing thunderstorms.... convection increase is probably done for some time then.... i do see now what looks like a closed circulation at the center like aric pointed out earlier... also, there were small banding features developing as well, until the storms collapsed... if this system does not get thunderstorms to sustain for some time, then the system would most likely continue to move westward and coming close if not moving into south america... since it is a shallow system the lower trades will push it along and not the mid and upper levels... so for now, it is holding its own, but "we are running out of time" to quote from the greatest show on tv "24".. lol... sorry... anyway, the mets here are the best source of info and i have learned more than i thought i would or could by reading some of their posts...

it seems the nhc feels it needs to be on the safe side with this thing just incase something did happen... which could still happen... if this thing cant develop and hold convection over night, i think it may be done as i just dont think it will make it into the caribbean... JMHO!!

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

mufasa157 · #386 Postby **mufasa157** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 3:54 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
338 PM AST SAT JUL 29 2006

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEARBY 45W ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
THIS AFTERNOON...LOOKS LIKE IS HAVING TROUBLE TO GET BETTER
ORGANIZE. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO GAIN INTENSITY
WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE EXPERTS. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATED
INFORMATION AS THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVANCES ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS.

vacanechaser · #387 Postby **vacanechaser** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 3:54 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:The models aren't always right, you can't look to the models all the time. Some times you just have to look at what's in the Tropics now and see which waves could develop. Right now 99L has a slim chance of development because of SAL, but as soon as it clears the Atlantic conditions could become more favorable.

yes your right.... and we know this... but be realistic here.... it is running out of time to do so... it may have moved a little further north but not enough... it is stuck down south of 10N and that is not helping matters either... maybe to avoid the sal.... but it is getting into it anyway to some extent.... the circulation center will start to weaken soon if things dont improve quickly, or it will just keep heading west into south america... point is, it looks less likely now than i thought even last night...

let it go... there will be plenty more...

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

HurricaneHunter914 · #388 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 3:59 pm

I do agree time is running out for this system, but you never know, the weather is unpredictable (expression). IMO this has until tomorrow to become a Tropical Dperession. By then it will be too late and then we'll start watching this new wave.

Website · #389 Postby **Brent** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 3:59 pm

mufasa157 wrote:AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
338 PM AST SAT JUL 29 2006

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEARBY 45W ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
THIS AFTERNOON...LOOKS LIKE IS HAVING TROUBLE TO GET BETTER
ORGANIZE. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO GAIN INTENSITY
WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE EXPERTS. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATED
INFORMATION AS THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVANCES ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS.

WOW... I want their crystal ball. :roll:

#390 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 4:04 pm

Dry air and shear are the rulers at the moment in the Eastern middle half of the Atlantic. Good work Bermuda High, good work!!!

#391 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 4:12 pm

ABNT20 KNHC 292110
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SAT JUL 29 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT
950 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED TODAY. WHILE THE SYSTEM STILL HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A DEPRESSION...CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...
AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
NEVERTHELESS...THE WAVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN

#392 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 4:15 pm

mufasa157 wrote:AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
338 PM AST SAT JUL 29 2006

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEARBY 45W ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
THIS AFTERNOON...LOOKS LIKE IS HAVING TROUBLE TO GET BETTER
ORGANIZE. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO GAIN INTENSITY
WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE EXPERTS. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATED
INFORMATION AS THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVANCES ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS.

The "National Hurricane Experts" have never made any such prediction.

This guy is a people I disagree with dream forecaster.

Here's what the "National Hurricane Experts" are saying as of the 5:30 TWO...and since we are bolding the parts we like...I will too:

THE TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED TODAY. WHILE THE SYSTEM STILL HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO BECOME A DEPRESSION...CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

#393 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 4:15 pm

ok. no more "One or 2 days".

Weatherfreak000 · #394 Postby **Weatherfreak000** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 4:16 pm

I think I can consider that the nail in the coffin. Bye Bye 99L. See you come Mid to Late August maybe.

Scorpion · #395 Postby **Scorpion** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 4:17 pm

I think earlier than that. Time to move on to the new wave that's about to come off of Africa.

#396 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 4:17 pm

cycloneye wrote:

THE TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT
950 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED TODAY. WHILE THE SYSTEM STILL HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A DEPRESSION...CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT.

FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN
[/b]

Darn it that Franklin...he's so negative sometimes. :lol:

WindRunner · #397 Postby **WindRunner** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 4:19 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I think I can consider that the nail in the coffin. Bye Bye 99L. See you come Mid to Late August maybe.

Don't be too quick to write it off . . . it does still have potential, albeit not as great right now as it has in the past.

#398 Postby **tailgater** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 4:25 pm

mufasa157 wrote:AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
338 PM AST SAT JUL 29 2006

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEARBY 45W ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
THIS AFTERNOON...LOOKS LIKE IS HAVING TROUBLE TO GET BETTER
ORGANIZE. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO GAIN INTENSITY
WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE EXPERTS. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATED
INFORMATION AS THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVANCES ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS.

I found that hard to believe but here it is the entire AFD
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/prodsBySta ... discussion

#399 Postby **TexasF6** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 4:26 pm

OK folks, be nice? Its early? But fixin to ramp up? To be fair, mfusa did see the PR NWS statement correctly, here it is in context:

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 291938
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
338 PM AST SAT JUL 29 2006

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN AFFECTING THE
LOCAL AREA SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE EAST NORTHEAST
SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES SHALL
EXPERIENCE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...A GROUP OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT LATER WILL ENTER THE EAST COAST OF
PUERTO RICO. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED THIS AFTERNOON
FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE EASTERN
HALF OF PUERTO RICO UNTIL 800 PM AST THIS EVENING. THIS WEATHER
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA.
THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE REST
OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE WE SEE
AN IMPROVEMENT ON THE WEATHER CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SAHARAN DUST WILL BE PRESENT ON SUNDAY AND AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK. THIS SAHARAN DUST IN COMBINATION WITH A MORE
STABLE AIR MASS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE FA.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEARBY 45W ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
THIS AFTERNOON...LOOKS LIKE IS HAVING TROUBLE TO GET BETTER
ORGANIZE. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO GAIN INTENSITY
WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE EXPERTS. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATED
INFORMATION AS THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVANCES ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS.

Time will tell if anything will brew out of these areas, but brew they will in time.... :roll:

Weatherfreak000 · #400 Postby **Weatherfreak000** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 4:26 pm

WindRunner wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I think I can consider that the nail in the coffin. Bye Bye 99L. See you come Mid to Late August maybe.

Don't be too quick to write it off . . . it does still have potential, albeit not as great right now as it has in the past.

I wrote that lol.

Your probably right but here's my thoughts. This thing has just about a good enough chance to develop then I have to find all my lost clothes in life.

So, basically fat chance.

99L Invest E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

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