99L Invest E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

Extremeweatherguy · #401 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 4:28 pm

I think this looks better right now than it did any other time this afternoon.

Weatherfreak000 · #402 Postby **Weatherfreak000** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 4:29 pm

Yes, perhaps it inched from downright abysmal to completely horrific.

Extremeweatherguy · #403 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 4:32 pm

there is some convection developing around the swirl:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

#404 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 4:34 pm

Weatherfreak000 wrote:Yes, perhaps it inched from downright abysmal to completely horrific.

Yeah...it went from a 1.0 to a 1.5 on a scale of 10.

Whipppee.

cheezyWXguy · #405 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 4:34 pm

me too...thats why i dont get it...the low is pretty much closed, convection is on the increase...all it needs is a blow-up over it center and its a TD...if this doesnt happen now, I think theres potential for development in the carribean

Extremeweatherguy · #406 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 4:35 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:me too...thats why i dont get it...the low is pretty much closed, convection is on the increase...all it needs is a blow-up over it center and its a TD...if this doesnt happen now, I think theres potential for development in the carribean

Well the NHC did say this:

THE TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT
950 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED TODAY. WHILE THE SYSTEM STILL HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A DEPRESSION...CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT.

so I guess there is still a chance.

vacanechaser · #407 Postby **vacanechaser** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 4:35 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
cycloneye wrote:

THE TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT
950 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED TODAY. WHILE THE SYSTEM STILL HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A DEPRESSION...CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT.

FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN
[/b]

Darn it that Franklin...he's so negative sometimes.

well, that is the truth... lol.. franklin is one of the more nagative... he plays a lot down a lot... however, he is right on in this case.... i think the nagativity comes from something in the water over at HRD... thats where he started out at... lol... Hmmm :roll:

,, franklin, now derek????

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

#408 Postby **Frank P** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 4:37 pm

What I think is so funny is when someone says that a TC is going to sneak up on us and every one must stay diligent....

Heck, we get 25 pages of posts on just a blob of thunderstorms over any body of water during the hurricane season just on this forum... Not to mention how the national media hypes anything that even comes close to development...

How in the heck can something SNEAK up on us when every cloud on satellite is analyzed to the hilt.... :eek:

Not to mention they are usually days away from impacting land in the first place... :roll:

I'd love to know how many time some one has stated after looking at a satellite loop at a blob of clouds and predicted a Cat 2 or 3 storm to develop soon after... which hardly ever happens in June or July, and if it does it just pure luck most of the time...

you won't hardly ever see any of the pro mets on this board do that....
thank goodness....

ROCK · #409 Postby **ROCK** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 4:38 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:I think this looks better right now than it did any other time this afternoon.

I am with you EWG......we got to keep hope alive......

Jam151 · #410 Postby **Jam151** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 4:41 pm

vacanechaser wrote:
Air Force Met wrote:
cycloneye wrote:

THE TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT
950 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED TODAY. WHILE THE SYSTEM STILL HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A DEPRESSION...CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT.

FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN
[/b]

Darn it that Franklin...he's so negative sometimes.

well, that is the truth... lol.. franklin is one of the more nagative... he plays a lot down a lot... however, he is right on in this case.... i think the nagativity comes from something in the water over at HRD... thats where he started out at... lol... Hmmm ,, franklin, now derek????

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

i'll take some pessimism over Stewart's aggression any day. Has there ever been a time when Stewart didn't rule out development? I don't get anything out of the outlooks if every swirl is treated the same.

WindRunner · #411 Postby **WindRunner** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 4:42 pm

Weatherfreak000 wrote:
WindRunner wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I think I can consider that the nail in the coffin. Bye Bye 99L. See you come Mid to Late August maybe.

Don't be too quick to write it off . . . it does still have potential, albeit not as great right now as it has in the past.

I wrote that lol.

Your probably right but here's my thoughts. This thing has just about a good enough chance to develop then I have to find all my lost clothes in life.

So, basically fat chance.

Oh, sorry, darn that memory of mine and the computer logging me out!

Yeah, it isn't looking great at all, and that's probably about right with the chance there. Storms on a swirl can are always dangerous in the tropics, though, no matter how pathetic looking.

Grease Monkey · #412 Postby **Grease Monkey** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 4:45 pm

Grease Monkey wrote:Invest 99L

vacanechaser · #413 Postby **vacanechaser** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 4:49 pm

Jam151 wrote:
vacanechaser wrote:
Air Force Met wrote:
cycloneye wrote:

THE TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT
950 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED TODAY. WHILE THE SYSTEM STILL HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A DEPRESSION...CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT.

FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN
[/b]

Darn it that Franklin...he's so negative sometimes.

well, that is the truth... lol.. franklin is one of the more nagative... he plays a lot down a lot... however, he is right on in this case.... i think the nagativity comes from something in the water over at HRD... thats where he started out at... lol... Hmmm ,, franklin, now derek????

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

i'll take some pessimism over Stewart's aggression any day. Has there ever been a time when Stewart didn't rule out development? I don't get anything out of the outlooks if every swirl is treated the same.

sorry you feel that way... stacy is one of the best there.... he knows what he is talking about.... he does get aggressive alot, but in many ways he is right more times than not... just my gut feeling.... beven would be next on the list in a very close second....

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Weatherfreak000 · #414 Postby **Weatherfreak000** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 5:01 pm

It's my experience when the outlooks say something along the lines of "It's becoming less organized but still has the potential to develop into a TD" that really means "Hey guys this thing ain't gonna happen, but if it pulls a miracle we're covering out backs.

#415 Postby **OuterBanker** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 5:07 pm

Come on little guy don't give up. Well we are closing in on 50 pages dedicated to this wave, the first potential cv storm. In a couple weeks we will be ignoring these things.

Stratosphere747 · #416 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 5:08 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:me too...thats why i dont get it...the low is pretty much closed, convection is on the increase...all it needs is a blow-up over it center and its a TD...if this doesnt happen now, I think theres potential for development in the carribean
Well the NHC did say this:

THE TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT
950 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED TODAY. WHILE THE SYSTEM STILL HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A DEPRESSION...CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT.

so I guess there is still a chance.

How about that last sentence....

CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT.

#417 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 5:10 pm

OuterBanker wrote:Come on little guy don't give up. Well we are closing in on 50 pages dedicated to this wave, the first potential cv storm. In a couple weeks we will be ignoring these things.

NOT LIKELY. True Cape Verde Storms are those that attain tropical storm status before crossing the 40ºW Longitude. 99L already crossed the magic line.

#418 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 5:13 pm

I don't believe it, but I like their optimism!!!

kenl01 · #419 Postby **kenl01** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 5:19 pm

Well well..........

It looks like the NHC made it clear this evening that conditions surrounding our 99L are becoming less favorable for development. This pretty well agrees with Jeff Master's thinking and other pro-mets earlier today concerning the future of this system. Dry air entrainment, upper level winds as it approaches the eastern Caribbean, its low latitude plus lack of organized convection near the trough axis makes further development into a TC quite unlikely anytime soon.

Summary of 99L:

http://independentwx.com/discussion.html

Yesterday evening, the tropical wave exploded with convection. The wave has been one of the more convectively actives waves to roll off the coast of Africa this season. But that doesn't necessarily give the wave a far greater probability of development than the waves that came before it. CIMSS upper air and water vapor imagery depict upper level ridging centered just north of the Cape Verde islands. The western flank of the ridging extends westward to 40-50W longitude. However, since the ridge isn't centered closer to or directly over the wave, it is not making conditions very favorable. Instead, it has maintained the strong easterly and northeast flow over the Mean Development Region (aka easterly shear). The moderate upper level easterlies is one of the reasons why this wave in particular is so convectively active. The second reason is that the wave axis hasn't detached from the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Visible and Scatterometer Wind data clearly show northeast winds circulating around the north Atlantic subtropical ridge and southerly winds entering the picture from the equator. These winds are intersecting along an axis (ITCZ) that the wave is still intertwined with. Visible and QuikSCAT imagery also confirm that there is no true surface circulation along the wave axis. With that being said there is no surface forcing, the axis is being enhanced by the ITCZ, and marginal easterly shear. This is not a sign of tropical cyclone formation.

Until a surface circulation forms, any convective burst will not mean much in the longhaul. To top things off, the northeast winds streaming into the wave around the subtropical ridge is causing dry air or Saharan Air Layer entrainment. A surface circulation is unlikely to form when the SAL is being fed into the system. The SAL and associated dry air enhances surface divergence, which is exactly what a tropical cyclone does not need. Furthermore, the global models can barely even detect this system. The global models don't seem to get any attention until they prog tropical development. Meanwhile, the SHIPS intensity model run is being hyped because it is calling for a 70 knot hurricane in 120 hours. The SHIPS intensity forecast needs to be completely thrown out. In order for SHIPS to even make an intensity forecast, it requires the meteorologists in charge to initialize the model with a tropical cyclone already exists. Essentially, a tropical depression or storm with a closed surface circulation must be initialized by the model in order for it to provide an intensity forecast. Since a surface circulation has not formed, and conditions aren't exactly conducive for surface ciruclation formation, it becomes easy to understand why the SHIPS guidance currently carries no weight. Tropical cyclone formation from 99L INVEST is not expected as it heads westward toward the Lesser Antilles.

Website · #420 Postby **Brent** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 5:43 pm

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99L Invest E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

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