Convection bloom south of Purto Rico (wave

[Recurve]

One of the waves producing a dense blowup of cold tops, though spreading and diminishing some now. This is the area around 15N 70 W.

IR rainbow loop

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-rb.html

Last night thunderstorms were passing westward just south of Puerto Rico; now showing cells west, south and east of the island.

Doppler radar
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=jua&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no

Still, this afternoon's tropical weather discussion still bearish on development:

VERY ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W/67W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING
WEST 20 KT. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 65W-72W. THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND WILL CROSS DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND TSTM
ACTIVITY TO THAT AREA. THE WAVE IS ALSO HELPING TO ENHANCE THE
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN VENZUELA. GUADELOUPE IN THE
LESSER ANTILLES REPORTED 1.92 INCHES OF RAIN WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE WHILE THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OVER ST. CROIX IN THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
INCREASED THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE
THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

[x-y-no]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... &start=380

[Recurve]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=87223&start=380

Yes I know. There is no prohibiotion, as I understand it, on starting a new thread to discuss specific aspects or observations of a wave or feature even when there is an existing thread. Those main threads are getting cluttered with a lot of low-worth chatting, if you don't mind my saying. So back on topic if anyone wants to discuss the convection here, if not, no problem.

[Eyewall]

agreed
the other is full of useless stuff

[dixiebreeze]

agreed
the other is full of useless stuff

This particular wave is one of the best no-invest systems I've seen this year so far. Wouldn't surprise me if it gels.

[Kerry04]

i got this from the Weather Underground web page


Tropical wave south of Puerto Rico
An area of heavy thunderstorms associated with a westward-moving tropical wave has increased in coverage just south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic this morning. Wind shear over this disturbance is marginal for development, 10-20 knots, so some slow development is possible over the next few days. This disturbance probably has more potential than the other wave, due to the presence of much moister air in the Caribbean.

Jeff Masters

[Recurve]

Still a pretty large area of moisture, but the deep red (coldest) tops on IR are somewhat less cold now. The area does not seem to be scooting westward as rapidly, but more hours are needed to know where this is centered.

From The 5:30 PM edt TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK:

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...
AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
NEVERTHELESS...THE WAVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

[tropicsgal05]

Which direction is all this convection going?

[Recurve]

The trades are generally moving the wave toward the west. Convection is firing again around Puerto Rico and now souht of Hispanola.