Invest 99L E of Lesser Antilles,Comments,Sat Pics,Etc #3

[Brent]

Thread 1:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=87361

Thread 2:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=87396

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 300226
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SAT JUL 29 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT
800 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS CHANGED LITTLE
IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS
ONLY APPEAR MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM
STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD MOVING
TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THERE
ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. NEVERTHELESS...THE WAVE HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING OVER
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN

[Extremeweatherguy]

considering the same forecasters wrote the 5:30pm and 10:30pm TWOs. I would say this one looks a little more aimed toward possible development.

[Weatherfreak000]

Yeah, let's go with that.


I hate to be terribly blunt, but this thing has jsut about enough chance to develop as the Houston Texans have to win the Superbowl.

[NDG]

Did they decided to take the night off and automatically duplicate their 5:30 PM advisory? Just kidding, of course nothing has changed, is not until tomorrow morning that I expect at least one of the systems to get better organized.

[Air Force Met]

considering the same forecasters wrote the 5:30pm and 10:30pm TWOs. I would say this one looks a little more aimed toward possible development.

As I've said all day...I think this is our best chance so far this year for classic tropical wave to tropical depression development, its just gonna take a while and it looks bad right now. Give it some time and be patient. Time will tell. Another 24-48 hours and I think that is its best chance...

[wxman57]

Interesting. I'm looking at an 8-hour loop of the disturbance. Some kind of east-west boundary of squalls moved from 9N to 13N directly through the mid-level spin in 8 hours. That's a speed of 30 kts. Heaviest squalls were all south of 10N 8 hours ago, now they're centered near 12N-13N along that boundary. Not sure what the boundary is, but it looks like the structure of the disturbance is changing. Hard to tell on IR imagery, but the spin down around 9N-10N may have just dissipated as the boundary passed through it. The disturbance now looks like a well-amplified wave. Hmm...

['CaneFreak]

Does that mean that it may have a better chance to develop than we were looking at before? In your PROFESSIONAL opinion.....

[Grease Monkey]

No I would only want his unprofessional opinion.

[senorpepr]

Looking at visible satellite shows a tight spin with the cloud mass of this system,,,This is not a weak wave we are looking at...The mid level spin looks healthy right now...Earlier yesterday those three buoys/ship reports shown that this could have had a LLC. Based also on the low clouds...Also outside of this and quickscats there is really no other way to tell.

Tonight looks to be some popcorn convection forming over this MLC....With a tight area of spin...So I would stay watch it for some development...

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

Matt... FWIW, you are NOT looking at a visible satellite, for there is no sunlight over the Atlantic Ocean... making visible satellite useless.


(Psst... "nighttime visible" is nothing but infrared imagery on a smaller wavelength than normal. [It's properly called "near infrared".])

[Aquawind]

Well the large area of inhibiting covergence convection to the WSW is gone and it looks to have gained some lattitude. Now maybe the convection can deeping and consolidate near a center if the boundry wxman57 mentioned isn't actually tearing it up.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I guess we will see what happens overnight, and down the road. Give it 24-48 hours, like AFM said, and I think this may have a better chance to get going.

[Evil Jeremy]

updated models can be found ____? please.

[storms in NC]

Yeah, let's go with that.


I hate to be terribly blunt, but this thing has jsut about enough chance to develop as the Houston Texans have to win the Superbowl.

That was cold.

[fci]

No I would only want his unprofessional opinion.

Ouch!!!

[storms in NC]

Okay home from work. Ruff shift. WHat is up with 99L? is it still going west or what?

[storms in NC]

Okay home from work. Ruff shift. WHat is up with 99L? is it still going west or what?

[ROCK]

Yeah, let's go with that.


I hate to be terribly blunt, but this thing has jsut about enough chance to develop as the Houston Texans have to win the Superbowl.

That was cold.

no joke......at least we have a football team that doesnt want to bail after a hurricane...

[ammmyjjjj]

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

Cool site for latest models

[HURAKAN]

Yeah, let's go with that.


I hate to be terribly blunt, but this thing has jsut about enough chance to develop as the Houston Texans have to win the Superbowl.

That was cold.

no joke......at least we have a football team that doesnt want to bail after a hurricane...

Talking about Houston's sports, you can compare it also with the Astros. A baseball team since the early sixties and so far only one appearance in the World Series, and they were swept by the White Sox four straight games.