MJO

benny · #61 Postby **benny** » Sat Jul 22, 2006 11:15 am

Any MJO is quite weak. Just because there is green on the 200 mb velocity potential... doesn't mean the MJO is positive. There are a variety of convective modes the atmosphere uses... Kelvin waves for example... and if you look at MJO only, the strength of the MJO is actually much weaker than average even for the summer time. Models are showing a pretty dramatic lowering of pressures Day 8 and beyond in the Atlantic.. so maybe that will herald the start of the tropical wave season.

#62 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Jul 22, 2006 11:39 am

benny wrote:Any MJO is quite weak. Just because there is green on the 200 mb velocity potential... doesn't mean the MJO is positive. There are a variety of convective modes the atmosphere uses... Kelvin waves for example... and if you look at MJO only, the strength of the MJO is actually much weaker than average even for the summer time. Models are showing a pretty dramatic lowering of pressures Day 8 and beyond in the Atlantic.. so maybe that will herald the start of the tropical wave season.

Yes I agree and see these pressure drops. August is right around the corner and we are closing in on it fast - I continue to say this but I expect quite a ramp up in about 2 weeks.....

'CaneFreak · #63 Postby **'CaneFreak** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 8:33 pm

cycloneye wrote:

The wet phase of MJO has arrived for the most part in the Atlantic Basin.But still the core of this wet phase is in the EPAC.

Not anymore people.....Here we go....Remember the activity in the Pacific last week or so? GET READY....could get real interesting real soon.....I think next week will really start getting crazy...Hope you're ready....

Grease Monkey · #64 Postby **Grease Monkey** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 8:36 pm

Extremeweatherguy · #65 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 8:37 pm

'CaneFreak wrote:
cycloneye wrote:

The wet phase of MJO has arrived for the most part in the Atlantic Basin.But still the core of this wet phase is in the EPAC.

Not anymore people.....Here we go....Remember the activity in the Pacific last week or so? GET READY....could get real interesting real soon.....I think next week will really start getting crazy...Hope you're ready....

I 100% agree. Things are about to get crazy!

#66 Postby **windycity** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 8:39 pm

#67 Postby **windycity** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 9:23 pm

You mean we might actually get the chance to track something more than a little wave?

'CaneFreak · #68 Postby **'CaneFreak** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 9:41 pm

HOPEFULLY.........

Hurricaneman · #69 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 12:26 am

Hopefully nothing big that hits land

HurricaneHunter914 · #70 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 12:28 am

Its all in Mother Naturre's hands my friend.

Hurricaneman · #71 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 12:07 pm

The mjo is positive in the middle of the atlantic, but unfavorable near land

willjnewton · #72 Postby **willjnewton** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 1:28 pm

can someone please tell me based on the upper level winds and steering current patterns in the atlantic ocean of which area is most likely at risk for this hurricane season or NOBODY knows???

#73 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Aug 08, 2006 6:50 am

The dry MJO has entered most of the Atlantic.For the week of the 20th of August another wet phase will enter the Atlantic,it's now in the WPAC where there are three cyclones now.

#74 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu Aug 10, 2006 11:50 am

Looks like we may have a wet MJO just in time for September and peak season. Of course this is GFS 40 day forecast and is subject to errors but, I'm interested to watch this and see how it changes.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... _chi.shtml

Extremeweatherguy · #75 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Aug 10, 2006 12:02 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:Looks like we may have a wet MJO just in time for September and peak season. Of course this is GFS 40 day forecast and is subject to errors but, I'm interested to watch this and see how it changes.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... _chi.shtml

looks like it begins to arrive in as early as 2 weeks.

Derek Ortt · #76 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Aug 10, 2006 12:02 pm

could someone please direct me to peer reviewed literature documenting the influence of the MJO in the Atlantic? Not a random unreviewed website. Thanks

#77 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu Aug 10, 2006 12:10 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:could someone please direct me to peer reviewed literature documenting the influence of the MJO in the Atlantic? Not a random unreviewed website. Thanks

Sorry to offend you :roll:

Some of us do not have a formal education and are trying to learn about different subjects. With all due respect, perhaps you may be able to enlighten us on the subject and explain why this is not a graphic I should not be looking in respect of a MJO outlook.

It is the GFS model and it updates daily.

#78 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu Aug 10, 2006 12:13 pm

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... den/Julian Oscillation: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Forecasts

Here is a PPT on from the CPC.

Derek Ortt · #79 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Aug 10, 2006 12:14 pm

I am asking because I DO NOT know the relation, and would like to have the peer reviewed study so I CAN learn

#80 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu Aug 10, 2006 12:16 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:I am asking because I DO NOT know the relation, and would like to have the peer reviewed study so I CAN learn

I apologize for offending you but, when I read it.. it came across wrong to me.

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