Are JB's thoughts about right for High Risk areas?

[NCWeatherChic]

I know some of you don't care much for him. I sit on the fence with any Met...they all use their education and background to make an educated guess.

But looking at the graphic of the areas he considers low risk, mod risk, high and high risk. I don't understand how he came up with it and the theory behind it. Could someone please enlighten me? Why would he think NC would be very high, while the Gulf states are low to mod. except for Texas? (Hopefully I can add the graphic right.)

[Bane]

It looks like he believes upper atmospheric conditions will pull several storms up the east coast this year.

[Bane]

Also, any storm that doesn't head up the east coast would likely go under a trough and move more westward into Texas.

[Evil Jeremy]

the graphic has proved wrong already! Alberto hit in the "Low" area!!!

[Extremeweatherguy]

I am pretty sure this is an accuweather graphic, not a JB graphic. He has a completely different system for rating/predicting landfalls.

[gulfcoastdave]

the graphic has proved wrong already! Alberto hit in the "Low" area!!![/quote]


one storm hitting an area seen in the low zone does not make him wrong. The graphic does not say NO STORMS. Really people , get a grip

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

On the other side of the Coin Beryl struck one of the very high risk areas. Also Alberto become a huge Gale Center off the East Coast.

[Dean4Storms]

I know some of you don't care much for him. I sit on the fence with any Met...they all use their education and background to make an educated guess.

But looking at the graphic of the areas he considers low risk, mod risk, high and high risk. I don't understand how he came up with it and the theory behind it. Could someone please enlighten me? Why would he think NC would be very high, while the Gulf states are low to mod. except for Texas? (Hopefully I can add the graphic right.)

Dart Board. Seriously though, the pattern thus far this summer has been troughing in the east which erodes the Atlantic Ridge. If a storm times itself right and gets caught up by the trough, take the fact that all the land areas circled as high risk on the east coast are land areas that jut eastward out into the Atlantic a northward moving TC could impact just about all 3. But, if the TC misses the trough the Ridging rushes back westward thus steering the storm westward toward Florida and on toward Texas. This is on average the threat most of the time to begin with.

[vacanechaser]

the graphic has proved wrong already! Alberto hit in the "Low" area!!!

one storm hitting an area seen in the low zone does not make him wrong. The graphic does not say NO STORMS. Really people , get a grip

also not to mention it was a weak tropical storm....


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Extremeweatherguy]

Obviously people are missing my above post, because this was NOT issued by JB. JB's graphics are much different than the one posted and are based on many other factors. The image above is simply just a graphic accuweather put out, and is not tied to JB. In fact, JB does not even have that "low risk" area as being the least affected this season (compared to the normals).

[NCWeatherChic]

Obviously people are missing my above post, because this was NOT issued by JB. JB's graphics are much different than the one posted and are based on many other factors. The image above is simply just a graphic accuweather put out, and is not tied to JB. In fact, JB does not even have that "low risk" area as being the least affected this season (compared to the normals).

Okay, so if it isn't his then why didn't he us his own "stuff" like he would normally had done instead of using this one for a hurricane "at risk" video that is on the Accuweather site? If you watch the video this is the graphic he uses, not any other one. If he had another, why wouldn't he show that one instead. Anyone that knows JB, knows he has his own opinion which may or may not be the same as the NHC. All Mets have their own opinion, but most Mets on television tend to go with whatever the NHC says...but not him. I guess I what I am saying, is how would this graphic not relate to him...even if Accuweather designed it...he must be in agreement or he wouldn't use it.

But thank you to all that replied...it makes better sense now.

[Opal storm]

These forecast maps are neat to look at,but don't take them seriously.After all Alberto did hit a "low" risk area.So it doesn't matter if you are in a "low" risk or "high" risk area,everybody from Maine to Texas needs to be prepared.Mother nature does not go by these maps,she steers the storms where she wants them to go.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Obviously people are missing my above post, because this was NOT issued by JB. JB's graphics are much different than the one posted and are based on many other factors. The image above is simply just a graphic accuweather put out, and is not tied to JB. In fact, JB does not even have that "low risk" area as being the least affected this season (compared to the normals).

Okay, so if it isn't his then why didn't he us his own "stuff" like he would normally had done instead of using this one for a hurricane "at risk" video that is on the Accuweather site? If you watch the video this is the graphic he uses, not any other one. If he had another, why wouldn't he show that one instead. Anyone that knows JB, knows he has his own opinion which may or may not be the same as the NHC. All Mets have their own opinion, but most Mets on television tend to go with whatever the NHC says...but not him. I guess I what I am saying, is how would this graphic not relate to him...even if Accuweather designed it...he must be in agreement or he wouldn't use it.

But thank you to all that replied...it makes better sense now.

It is similar to his forecast on the pro site, but it seems a little over simplified.

[cpdaman]

looks like someone was caught with there head up there butt

extreme weather guy " JB's graphics are much different than the one posted and are based on many other factors. The image above is simply just a graphic accuweather put out, and is not tied to JB.


extreme weather guy in response to NC weather chick's "It is similar to his forecast on the pro site, but it seems a little over simplified

so is it much different or is it similiar or can u just admit you were WRONG it's ok and a quite admirable characteristic

no intent to flame

just to fess up and let us know u can admit u were wrong so that later when predicting storms people may see your predictions or opinions with more respect or openmindedness, even if at the time they are different from the official track i.e nhc forecast) instead of a stubborn attempt to rationalize u were "right"

[Extremeweatherguy]

looks like someone was caught with there head up there butt

extreme weather guy " JB's graphics are much different than the one posted and are based on many other factors. The image above is simply just a graphic accuweather put out, and is not tied to JB.


extreme weather guy in response to NC weather chick's "It is similar to his forecast on the pro site, but it seems a little over simplified

so is it much different or is it similiar or can u just admit you were WRONG it's ok and a quite admirable characteristic

no intent to flame

just to fess up and let us know u can admit u were wrong so that later when predicting storms people may see your predictions or opinions with more respect or openmindedness, even if at the time they are different from the official track i.e nhc forecast) instead of a stubborn attempt to rationalize u were "right"

Well cpdaman, his maps on his June Hurricane outlook section of the pro site are MUCH different than the one posted on here, but this map is "similar" to his in that it has a similar number of landfalls and an overall "similar" idea, but it is really not the same.

One major difference is that in his official June forecast, he breaks the areas up into zones. The map posted on this thread does not go by his zones, thus it is not really his forecast. For example, in his forecast he has zone 8 as being the entire FL west coast, yet on the above map, that region is split into many smaller "sub-regions". He also rates system landfalls on a scaled system that ranges from 1-64+ points for a region. This part is harder to explain, but is also much different than the above "over-simplified" map.

I really do not feel like arguing this further though, so if you want to see what I am talking about feel free to pay for Accuweather's pro service and view his June Hurricane outlook for yourself.

[george_r_1961]

Im gonna agree with JB. This troughing pattern along the EC is gonna make for a higher risk for NC and Long Island thru New England. A possible scenario would be a storm hitting the NC outer banks...then turning NNE and affecting the northeast..skirting the Delmarva and New Jersey.

[Grease Monkey]

How accurate have these type of maps been the past? Are they really worth looking at?

[Steve]

Low, Moderate, High were as compared to normal. You need the explanation from when they released those maps in order to properly present it IMHO.

Steve

[Rainband]

Im gonna agree with JB. This troughing pattern along the EC is gonna make for a higher risk for NC and Long Island thru New England. A possible scenario would be a storm hitting the NC outer banks...then turning NNE and affecting the northeast..skirting the Delmarva and New Jersey.

That would be good news for the gom, if that played out. My biggest problem with these "predictions" is that the weather is constantly changing and no matter what anyone thinks. Mother nature doesn't play by our rules. The only scenario that is likely is that someone is going to get hit this year. Who??? Crystal Ball anyone??

[Grease Monkey]

The only scenario that is likely is that someone is going to get hit this year. Who??? Crystal Ball anyone??

I'm stumped. My Hurrisenses are currently showing no signs of life.