Invest 99L E of Lesser Antilles,Comments,Sat Pics,Etc #3

[Windtalker1]

To answer
'Bane's" question as if the storm follows the GFDL track.....there is a strong cold front expected to move through the North East by Thursday night but it is not expected to go much farther South than the Carolinas. I think the Storm will be to far South to be effected by this cold front. I think the high will build back in to the west and keep it on a WNW track.

[drezee]

Buoy 41041 reported S wind (170 degrees) at 12Z.

That confirms the outflow boundary...

Beat me to it!

It really confirms the thinking you had earlier about the outflow boundary disrupting the low level flow. It is a surface boundary as we can now see. That is part of the reason I like development at the point I chose because the outflow boudary stopped there and convection popped there. It is possible that the boundary was riding a LL axis and given the right conditions could help spawn a real LLC in that position. It is kinda like a sheared system, but normally the boundaries are on the west side and not the east side...

[crab_storm]

do we have a model link?

[Evil Jeremy]

there is a good one at skeetobiteweather.com

[MortisFL]

[jusforsean]

will this thing develop

[skysummit]

[kenl01]

Keep in mind that models increase a northeast shear across the Lesser Antilles and eastern Caribbean Monday and Tuesday which could be counterproductive to the future of this wave early next week. So even if slow development does occur, it would be at best a weak TD.

I was about to make that point. If this system tracks much farther northwest then it'll run right into the TUTT, and some very strong shear. I think it'll track westward just like the wave ahead of it. As it crosses the eastern Caribbean, thunderstorms will flare up to the north, southeast of the TUTT. But the storms will die out as the wave continues westward.

Agreed. I doubt overall conditions during the next 2 days favor any significant development of this system with the exception of convective bursts during this time.

[Evil Jeremy]

if this thing does form, its another Florida storm!

[jusforsean]

We better get our ducks in a row over here, its been a long time since the lines were pointing in my direction

[skysummit]

I also agree kenl01. I believe we'll see a few convective bursts from time to time, but as for steady intensification, it'll be a slow go.

[storms in NC]

The model that was on here Friday are right on to where they said the turn would be. Now you will see them go all over the place till you get a TD and a 5 day lookout and still there will be some that just go hay wire. As far as to where this might go if it does make it it still to far to tell right now.JMO

[beachbum_al]

Where is it going to go from there? Will it curve and go up the East Coast? Go out to sea after striking FL? Or could it continue on a path through South FL and come out into the GOM? Or is it just too far out to even tell? My guess is the latter of the questions~too far to tell right now but would love to hear some of the experts views on this.

[skysummit]

if this thing does form, its another Florida storm!

Where do you get this from? Just because the models jumped north and now point to Florida? Geez....it's only a wave right now and these models have no clue as to what's going on with it.

[storms in NC]

if this thing does form, its another Florida storm!

Where do you get this from? Just because the models jumped north and now point to Florida? Geez....it's only a wave right now and these models have no clue as to what's going on with it.

It just happens every time there is one out there. Not all fla people think this way. Just 99.99% Sorry just Joking. I have family down there too.

[Extremeweatherguy]

A pretty distinct and better organized "spin" has set up with this system in the last few hours. It may finally be getting it's act together:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Extremeweatherguy]

Where is it going to go from there? Will it curve and go up the East Coast? Go out to sea after striking FL? Or could it continue on a path through South FL and come out into the GOM? Or is it just too far out to even tell? My guess is the latter of the questions~too far to tell right now but would love to hear some of the experts views on this.

I have heard that it will probably turn back west later next week, so I guess that means possibly a GOM situation.

[skysummit]

It is looking better on visible this morning...especially in the last 3 shots. I have it blown up to full screen with GHCCSat and it looks like the area to watch is a little further north now like Wxman57 pointed out. It still has a long way to go though.

[HURAKAN]

I will keep my opinion to myself!!!

[kenl01]

Latest summary as of this morning pretty much maintains the idea of no significant development:

http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/ ... amp=200607

A tropical wave about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands continues to be a threat as it moves west-northwest at 15-20 mph. A good pass by the QuikSCAT satellite this morning at 5:38 EDT revealed that a center of low pressure was located near 10N 51W, but the wave did not have a closed surface circulation. The main thunderstorm activity was to the north of the low's center, with winds in the 30-35 mph range at the surface. Visible satellite imagery from this morning confirm that the wave has no surface circulation, and shows a few heavy thunderstorms to the north of the center. The wave is surrounded by a large area of dry, dust-laden air to its north and west. This dry air, plus wind shear of 10-20 knots, should make any development slow to occur. However, for the first time, we do have a model that develops the wave. Last night's run of the GFDL model has the wave developing into a tropical storm by Monday night, when it crosses through the Leeward Islands near Guadeloupe. The GFDL then brings the tropical storm across the Dominican Republic on Wednesday night. None of the other models buy this solution, and predict that wind shear and dry air will keep this wave from developing. That is my expectation as well. Even if the wave does develop, a strong upper-level cold low north of the Bahamas will bring very hostile wind shear to any storm that tries to approach the U.S. East Coast. The GFDL model reflects this, and has the storm weakening as it crosses into the Bahama Islands late in the week.