Invest 99L E of Lesser Antilles,Comments,Sat Pics,Etc #3
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- Noles2006
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Dean4Storms wrote:Those banding features I see are outflows which do not represent a LLC.
Which is not good for a "developing" system.
If you guys want those who say "Sorry, this thing isn't going to develop" to stop posting their one-liners, then it's only fair that you who say "this thing looks good, I give it a XX% chance of developing" and leave it at that to stop posting.
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Even at the earliest opportunity for development, it would take at least 3 days, as no cyclones are expected through at least Tuesday at the moment:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif
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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?
6 hourly recon starting tomorrow, though I am not sure if this will actually occur
6 hourly recon starting tomorrow, though I am not sure if this will actually occur
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- vacanechaser
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'CaneFreak wrote:Its not predicted to go into the Carribean for a very long period there bud....its predicted to be in the carribean for all of 24-48 hours then it will probably hit land, then it will probably go north of the islands into the Bahamas...now, the real question is "What will environmental conditions be like at that time IF it makes it north of the islands?"
also, if it does move in the direction that the models show, it will have to do battel with the Dominican Republic... Also known as a hurricanes worst nightmare... the moutains there will help shead it if the shear does not get it.... interesting though that it looks like it wants to turn up the coast.... looks like bill gray was on to something when he told me at the hurricane conference, "be ready in the carolinas, its your turn"
Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team
Last edited by vacanechaser on Sun Jul 30, 2006 11:18 am, edited 1 time in total.
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- vacanechaser
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kenl01 wrote:Even at the earliest opportunity for development, it would take at least 3 days, as no cyclones are expected through at least Tuesday at the moment:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif
that means nothing.... something can change in a matter of hours.... that is just a forecast based on conditions at the time.... one or two factors suddenly swing into its favor, boom, off to the races... although i donr see that happening right now.. just dont base it on what that map shows and that far out....
Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Rseaerch Team
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Fine but when looking at the SAL layer I'd have to agree with the models prediction of no cyclones through Aug.1...........
"The wave is surrounded by a large area of dry, dust-laden air to its north and west. This dry air, plus wind shear of 10-20 knots, should make any development slow to occur."

"The wave is surrounded by a large area of dry, dust-laden air to its north and west. This dry air, plus wind shear of 10-20 knots, should make any development slow to occur."
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- 'CaneFreak
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- cycloneye
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Before the question comes about from where they will depart if they go tommorow to 99L,they will do so from ST Croix.
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- vacanechaser
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kenl01 wrote:Fine but when looking at the SAL layer I'd have to agree with the models prediction of no cyclones through Aug.1...........![]()
"The wave is surrounded by a large area of dry, dust-laden air to its north and west. This dry air, plus wind shear of 10-20 knots, should make any development slow to occur."
ohhh, i agree, i'm just saying dont take that as fact or whatever... some people in the past have and then seemed to be surprised.. thats all...

interesting the GFDL now makes it a hurricane... and looks like it wants to run the coast.. of course there were not enough frames in the run, but it looked like that is what it wanted to do with it...
Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team
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- vacanechaser
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'CaneFreak wrote:Ken, it is weak SAL at best and I would have to say this wave should have died out completely a long time ago if SAL was really having a major impact on this wave...or any other waves at that....
good point.... it seems to wanta LIVE!!
Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team
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well i have not been impressed by 99l so far but when i look at the spin thats still there i guess you cant write it off as long as its spinning but it maybe the fat lady is warming up.On the other side of it the GFDL had a very interesting run and maybe this thing will fight thru all the negative factors and become something anyways.
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I am absolutely unconvinced of the GFDL idea in this situation. None of the other models support such an idea............
"None of the other models buy this solution, and predict that wind shear and dry air will keep this wave from developing. Even if the wave does develop, a strong upper-level cold low north of the Bahamas will bring very hostile wind shear to any storm that tries to approach the U.S. East Coast. The GFDL model reflects this, and has the storm weakening as it crosses into the Bahama Islands late in the week."
"None of the other models buy this solution, and predict that wind shear and dry air will keep this wave from developing. Even if the wave does develop, a strong upper-level cold low north of the Bahamas will bring very hostile wind shear to any storm that tries to approach the U.S. East Coast. The GFDL model reflects this, and has the storm weakening as it crosses into the Bahama Islands late in the week."
Last edited by kenl01 on Sun Jul 30, 2006 11:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Actually the 12Z GFS doesn't close the system off (keeps the vorticity) as a strong wave. It takes this system into SE FL in about 7 days. It shows high pressure building off the carolina coast next weekend. A long way off and lots of changes but interesting nonetheless.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
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- cheezyWXguy
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