Glob Models have strong lows in E Atlantic,first 2 weeks,Aug

[SouthFloridawx]

I believe those models are actually moving it WEST

You know what I meant lol...

[SouthFloridawx]

Here is a good sat view of the wave about to roll off of Africa:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/disp ... C_SCALE=15

That a pretty impressive wave and I looked at those models that someone posted above.

One thing that scares me is that we get a system developing and moving westward and then the ridge builds west and traps it from recurving.

[windycity]

Yea, thats my fear too,a repeat of 2004.

[cycloneye]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

00z Loop of GFS is agressive forming low pressures off Africa with one significant low on the second week of August.

[SouthFloridawx]

GFS continues to show a developing low pressure out in the Eastern Atlantic Tracking westward. Still not sure if it is picking up on something specific or if it's just a pattern change, indicating a lower pressure in the the Eastern Atlantic.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[Scorpion]

Well thats very good news that the pressures will be lowering. The SST's should also warm dramatically. The shear will also subside somewhat.

[Eyewall]

GFS continues to show a developing low pressure out in the Eastern Atlantic Tracking westward. Still not sure if it is picking up on something specific or if it's just a pattern change, indicating a lower pressure in the the Eastern Atlantic.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

the ridge looks pretty weak there..

[cycloneye]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

12z GFS shows a fish storm moving NW away from the islands.At the end of the loop,in the second week of August it has a new low south of the Cape Verde islands.To note the subtropical ridge is not too strong allowing for recurving.

[wxmann_91]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/index_slp_l_loop.shtml

12z GFS shows a fish storm moving NW away from the islands.At the end of the loop,in the second week of August it has a new low south of the Cape Verde islands.To note the subtropical ridge is not too strong allowing for recurving.

The 12Z seems to be suffering from convective feedback. It spins up some spurious convection/TC which leaves behind a weakness in the subtropical ridge.

[SouthFloridawx]

GFS continues to show a developing low pressure out in the Eastern Atlantic Tracking westward. Still not sure if it is picking up on something specific or if it's just a pattern change, indicating a lower pressure in the the Eastern Atlantic.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

the ridge looks pretty weak there..

That's not too weak just coming off of Africa a day before.

[cycloneye]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

18z GFS.It has the low we know it has in the first week of August.But a more significant low is shown in the second week of August going to the third.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The Ghost of Ivan I call on you!!!....Joking...But this is by far the most hyped system this year by the Gfs for the eastern Atlantic. In we will watch it closely.

[jaxfladude]

Well the season may be starting to ramp-up I fear.....nothing to do but watch and wait and prepare if/as needed..may we all survive this hurricane season with no/as little damage as possible.....