The Wave SW of Cape Verde Islands

[wxmann_91]

Watch it for development. This is likely to be our next Invest.

Not only is climatology getting better, but the general pattern is becoming more favorable. The Bermuda High stuck over Newfoundland has migrated east, and thus, wind shear over the MDR has decreased. The strong TUTT over the western Atlantic is forecasted to be ripped apart, lowering the shear even further. The heart of the favorable MJO is approaching the Atlantic as well. As JB and others have predicted, an upswing an activity is expected as August begins. The GFS and NOGAPS forecast development from this system. In addition, the ridge is expected to build back preventing recurvature. Caveat is this is expected to be a large system, so development is likely to be slow. Nevertheless, I do believe development will occur. The wave has shown resilience since moving off Africa and is surrounded by a moist envelope.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Um hate to be rude but, isn't there already a thread for this titled 'Another Player over Africa'.

[Scorpion]

Excellent. I agree, this is the first time we are seeing some consensus from the models. I only hope it doesn't affect the islands.

[wxmann_91]

Um hate to be rude but, isn't that already a thread for this titled 'Another Player over Africa'.

I thought HurricaneHunter wanted that thread to be locked.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Oh, sorry my bad.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

True. This one certainly has my attention. The majority of the models seem to be keying on this area for further development. First time I think that much consensus has occurred thus far this year.

[wxmann_91]

No, the UKMET still does not develop it, so the consensus here is not as strong as it was for Alberto. In fact, the reason I'm calling for development this early is not really based on the models, its based on the more favorable environment of the Tropical Atlantic. The wave is already one step ahead of many other waves as it is very organized already. Now we just need to tighten this system up and I'm banking on at least an Invest.

[SouthFloridawx]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... &start=100

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

No, the UKMET still does not develop it, so the consensus here is not as strong as it was for Alberto. In fact, the reason I'm calling for development this early is not really based on the models, its based on the more favorable environment of the Tropical Atlantic. The wave is already one step ahead of many other waves as it is very organized already. Now we just need to tighten this system up and I'm banking on at least an Invest.

UKMET does seem to show something forming there:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm/fcst/index.html

Low in question:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm ... 2/103.html

[SouthFloridawx]

No, the UKMET still does not develop it, so the consensus here is not as strong as it was for Alberto. In fact, the reason I'm calling for development this early is not really based on the models, its based on the more favorable environment of the Tropical Atlantic. The wave is already one step ahead of many other waves as it is very organized already. Now we just need to tighten this system up and I'm banking on at least an Invest.

When was the consensus strong from Alberto.. CMC and NAM were the only models showing development in the gulf?

All the global model except for UKMET show development... to me that is a consensus. Is it necessarily this wave maybe not but, I think this is at least a pattern shift that says there are going to be more cape verde storms this year.



This wave certainly is impressive though. I have been watching the models for a few days. They take the Azores high and move it north or northeastward.

[SouthFloridawx]

I think you might be right on this one though wxman91..

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... split.html

SAL has decreased a lot since the last wave was in the same position. This is probably the one that is going to be the first long tracker.

[Scorpion]

Wow the SAL is really dying.

[wxmann_91]

No, the UKMET still does not develop it, so the consensus here is not as strong as it was for Alberto. In fact, the reason I'm calling for development this early is not really based on the models, its based on the more favorable environment of the Tropical Atlantic. The wave is already one step ahead of many other waves as it is very organized already. Now we just need to tighten this system up and I'm banking on at least an Invest.

UKMET does seem to show something forming there:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm/fcst/index.html

Low in question:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm ... 2/103.html

My mistake.

For Alberto, if my memory serves me well, after the CMC and NAM saw it, most other models saw it too.

[SouthFloridawx]

This wave is gonna get an invest in the next couple of days. This really worries me how these waves are looking better and better as time goes on. I was kind of hoping the the cape verde season would shut down again cause we don't really need anymore major canes.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I was actually thinking this might happen yesterday. I've seen cases where a strong wave (like the last one) has moisten the air mass, and primped the pump if you would, for future development behind it. I think the last time I recall that happening was either 2003, 0r maybe 2004.

[SouthFloridawx]

No, the UKMET still does not develop it, so the consensus here is not as strong as it was for Alberto. In fact, the reason I'm calling for development this early is not really based on the models, its based on the more favorable environment of the Tropical Atlantic. The wave is already one step ahead of many other waves as it is very organized already. Now we just need to tighten this system up and I'm banking on at least an Invest.

UKMET does seem to show something forming there:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm/fcst/index.html
Low in question:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm ... 2/103.html

My mistake.
For Alberto, if my memory serves me well, after the CMC and NAM saw it, most other models saw it too.

Those models saw it after they had the data entered into the run. CMC and NAM were the only two models overall to show development in the near term. In some cases CMC was showing development 5 days prior.

[HUC]

I'am watching one after one;at this time looking for the TWave just east of the winward;so it's an other thread,and i will be back to this one in 2 days ...Thank's for all of you that are looking so long in the future for us .See you later!!!!

[shaggy]

looks like it came off bout the same place as 99 and we all see how well its doing...Not saying this one will or will not develop but each wave is different and yet every wave theres people always saying this ones going to make it...its got a long ways to go so lets all sit back and watch.

[Scorpion]

looks like it came off bout the same place as 99 and we all see how well its doing...Not saying this one will or will not develop but each wave is different and yet every wave theres people always saying this ones going to make it...its got a long ways to go so lets all sit back and watch.

Thing is, models develop this one. 99 had no model support.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

It had a bit early on (two of 'em picked it up for a run), but nothing like this one has, at least thus far.