Invest 99L E of Lesser Antilles,Comments,Sat Pics,Etc #3

TS Zack · #201 Postby **TS Zack** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 3:19 pm

As long as it stays weak this thing will continue Westward, slowly gaining latitude. The Hurricane Models already think we have a closed low and also bring it to a 57kt storm. If that happens then it will gain latitude quicker but until then 99L will fall in love with the Easterlies.

vacanechaser · #202 Postby **vacanechaser** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 3:20 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:I think the overall structure is starting to look better this afternoon.

i agree... but i am wondering if the reason why the models maybe having a hard time with it is one it is a small system.... and when looking at the gfdl, it keeps it a small system... does not make into a large system like we are use to seeing....

also, the consense model shows it in the bahamas... this may need to be watched closer than we think

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

#203 Postby **Windtalker1** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 3:21 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Windtalker1 wrote:
Scorpion wrote:By the way, the MM5 is picking up on 99L.
Has it going through "Herberts box"

Actually, it's called "Hebert's Box", named after Paul Hebert, former forecaster from the NHC. He's from a few miles south of where I grew up in Lafayette, LA.

oops...my bad...spelt it wrong

#204 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 3:23 pm

vacanechaser wrote:
SouthFloridawx wrote:I think the overall structure is starting to look better this afternoon.

i agree... but i am wondering if the reason why the models maybe having a hard time with it is one it is a small system.... and when looking at the gfdl, it keeps it a small system... does not make into a large system like we are use to seeing....

also, the consense model shows it in the bahamas... this may need to be watched closer than we think

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

I agree Jesse.. This is one of those that can sneak up on ya in a hurry. Just wait till it gets into an area favorable... if this ends up in the SE Bahamas I would get kind of worried.

vacanechaser · #205 Postby **vacanechaser** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 3:24 pm

TS Zack wrote:As long as it stays weak this thing will continue Westward, slowly gaining latitude. The Hurricane Models already think we have a closed low and also bring it to a 57kt storm. If that happens then it will gain latitude quicker but until then 99L will fall in love with the Easterlies.

well the gfdl does not think it is closed... on the first frame, it is an open wave...
but later closes it off

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

vacanechaser · #206 Postby **vacanechaser** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 3:26 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:
vacanechaser wrote:
SouthFloridawx wrote:I think the overall structure is starting to look better this afternoon.

i agree... but i am wondering if the reason why the models maybe having a hard time with it is one it is a small system.... and when looking at the gfdl, it keeps it a small system... does not make into a large system like we are use to seeing....

also, the consense model shows it in the bahamas... this may need to be watched closer than we think

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

I agree Jesse.. This is one of those that can sneak up on ya in a hurry. Just wait till it gets into an area favorable... if this ends up in the SE Bahamas I would get kind of worried.

well the nhc ran the concenses model on it.. so they must be thinking somethig is going to develop...

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

kenl01 · #207 Postby **kenl01** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 3:30 pm

You guys have....... "high..... hopes"

You got............"high........hopes"

Remember that song by Frank Sinatra ? Reminds me of this wave that never develops. :ggreen:

#208 Postby **drezee** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 3:33 pm

I am thinking the system in the NW Caribbean is going to pop first...

kenl01 · #209 Postby **kenl01** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 3:37 pm

Ok guys, I am getting so bored with this system that I'll watch some golf the rest of the day or go waterskiing with my friend on the intercoastal waterway.
It's a waste - since it won't do anything anyways.

shaggy · #210 Postby **shaggy** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 3:40 pm

by looking at the sat pics i cant see how nay of them look like they are going to "pop"

Derek Ortt · #211 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 3:43 pm

Neither system is likely to develop

There is simply no organization to either

hicksta · #212 Postby **hicksta** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 3:55 pm

Very true derek, seems like yall want a storm. Im glad if we dont have anymore =). My house and job both are directly on the water. Dont feel like losing it at the momment

TS Zack · #213 Postby **TS Zack** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 4:01 pm

000
ABNT20 KNHC 302057
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY...
BUT STILL HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20
MPH.

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA... HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON...AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING...WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY.

$$

Thunder44 · #214 Postby **Thunder44** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 4:01 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 5:30 PM EDT on July 30, 2006

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
A tropical wave is located about 500 miles east of the Windward
Islands. This system has not become any better organized today...
but still has some potential to become a tropical depression over
the next couple of days as it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20
mph.

Forecaster Rhome/Franklin

#215 Postby **Andrew92** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 4:02 pm

*sigh* This is normal for this time of year. It's still not even August. Over the last ten years, we have seen CV storms form in 3 years BY THIS DAY (I'm not counting just depressions that fizzled in a day). The storms WILL come; patience, people.

Besides, after the last two devastating hurricane seasons, I frankly wouldn't mind a quieter season.

-Andrew92

#216 Postby **sponger** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 4:02 pm

At this rate we are likely going to wait until Mid to late August to see activity ramp up.

Grease Monkey · #217 Postby **Grease Monkey** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 4:04 pm

Not necessarily. Thinks can change very rapidly in a week.

MortisFL · #218 Postby **MortisFL** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 4:05 pm

sponger wrote:At this rate we are likely going to wait until Mid to late August to see activity ramp up.

Probably earlier then that.

#219 Postby **sponger** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 4:05 pm

Very true Andrew. Last year was such a freak show that a return to normalcy is welcome. It Would be nice to get some surf before Sept.

TS Zack · #220 Postby **TS Zack** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 4:06 pm

sponger wrote:At this rate we are likely going to wait until Mid to late August to see activity ramp up.

Why do you say that? Things go downhill quickly... All we need is 99L to develop tomorrow, then the Caribbean system organize and thats pretty active to me.

Remember August is here.

Invest 99L E of Lesser Antilles,Comments,Sat Pics,Etc #3

Who is online