Wave in Central Caribbean

[Extremeweatherguy]

JB is saying in his afternoon post that the Gulf could have a problem toward the mid to later part of next week, and I am assuming it is because of this system. Can't wait to see what he has to say when he does a more detailed post later (don't look for my input though until late this evening, as I will probably be on the road.)

[Extremeweatherguy]

Take a look at the 12Z NAM! It has this thing as a 1008mb low in the Gulf in 84 hrs.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

With the building ridge to the north, and it's general movement on the loop, this could easily be a central or west Gulf issue. Stay tuned...

BTW: The NAM looks to be developing a different system than what is north of Hispaniola. May be it is seeing the convection south of Jamaica?

[Grease Monkey]

I'll believe it when I see it.

[Recurve]

Forming systems just north of Hispanola get my attention for florida threat. Of course I know they can get into the gulf after florida landfall too.

[Dean4Storms]

The WFR brings our Carib. wave over western Cuber and then develops it as it moves into the SE Gulf..........


http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.etauspcp.html

[Recurve]

The WFR brings our Carib. wave over western Cuber and then develops it as it moves into the SE Gulf..........


http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.etauspcp.html

Thanks for that loop. The high suggests it would track west if the low's developing around western cuba it seems.

[Dean4Storms]

Take a look at the 12Z NAM! It has this thing as a 1008mb low in the Gulf in 84 hrs.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

With the building ridge to the north, and it's general movement on the loop, this could easily be a central or west Gulf issue. Stay tuned...

BTW: The NAM looks to be developing a different system than what is north of Hispaniola. May be it is seeing the convection south of Jamaica?

Actually noting the trough coming into NW TX. in that solution it would appear the north Gulf coast would be more at risk.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Could be this is what they mean:

...NOAM LOWER LATITUDES...

THE OVERALL MODEL AND ENSEMBLE REGIME OFFERS FAVORABLE MONSOONAL
FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE S-CENTRAL GREAT BASIN/ROCKY STATES BUT
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE MAY BE UNDERESTIMATING POTENTIAL TO SOME DEGREE
AS MOISTURE FEEDS UP AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF S-CENTRAL US
RIDGING TO FUEL ACTIVITY.

ELSEWHERE...THE 00 UTC GFS CARRIES AN H5 LOW ACROSS FL AND INTO
THE SERN CONUS WHILE THE 00 UTC ECMWF AND CANADIAN MORE CARRIES A
SYSTEM FROM THE WRN ATL TO THE E COAST ON A MORE NWD TRACK TOWARD
THE CAROLINAS LATER THIS WEEK. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW
WITH THIS FEATURE SO WILL DOWNPLAY DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. TPC
HAS ALSO SUGGESTED POTENTIAL THAT TROPICAL WAVE APPROACH MAY FEED
FL CONVECTION LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.

SCHICHTEL


Source: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

[Stratosphere747]

Can't see the Bermuda High being that far west. If the southern portion of this wave develops, looks to move more towards the YP..

[Recurve]

Take a look at the 12Z NAM! It has this thing as a 1008mb low in the Gulf in 84 hrs.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

With the building ridge to the north, and it's general movement on the loop, this could easily be a central or west Gulf issue. Stay tuned...

BTW: The NAM looks to be developing a different system than what is north of Hispaniola. May be it is seeing the convection south of Jamaica?

Actually noting the trough coming into NW TX. in that solution it would appear the north Gulf coast would be more at risk.

Thanks for pointing that out too.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Take a look at the 12Z NAM! It has this thing as a 1008mb low in the Gulf in 84 hrs.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

With the building ridge to the north, and it's general movement on the loop, this could easily be a central or west Gulf issue. Stay tuned...

BTW: The NAM looks to be developing a different system than what is north of Hispaniola. May be it is seeing the convection south of Jamaica?

Actually noting the trough coming into NW TX. in that solution it would appear the north Gulf coast would be more at risk.

Thanks for pointing that out too.

You may be right, this could be a central gulf issue. I think time will tell though. Let's see what happens over the next few days.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Could be this is what they mean:

...NOAM LOWER LATITUDES...

THE OVERALL MODEL AND ENSEMBLE REGIME OFFERS FAVORABLE MONSOONAL
FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE S-CENTRAL GREAT BASIN/ROCKY STATES BUT
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE MAY BE UNDERESTIMATING POTENTIAL TO SOME DEGREE
AS MOISTURE FEEDS UP AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF S-CENTRAL US
RIDGING TO FUEL ACTIVITY.

ELSEWHERE...THE 00 UTC GFS CARRIES AN H5 LOW ACROSS FL AND INTO
THE SERN CONUS WHILE THE 00 UTC ECMWF AND CANADIAN MORE CARRIES A
SYSTEM FROM THE WRN ATL TO THE E COAST ON A MORE NWD TRACK TOWARD
THE CAROLINAS LATER THIS WEEK. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW
WITH THIS FEATURE SO WILL DOWNPLAY DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. TPC
HAS ALSO SUGGESTED POTENTIAL THAT TROPICAL WAVE APPROACH MAY FEED
FL CONVECTION LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.

SCHICHTEL


Source: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

I think this has to do with the system out in the Atlantic.

[Stratosphere747]

Good point about the front, though still up in the air...

DFW disco...

MODELS STILL NOT CERTAIN ON THE FATE OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK. CURRENT GFS AND
EUROPEAN SOLUTIONS BOTH BRING THE FRONT JUST ACROSS THE RED RIVER
LATE THURSDAY...STALL IT OUT JUST SOUTH OF RIVER FRIDAY...THEN
LIFT IT NORTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FAR OUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE IF THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT AT ALL. FOR NOW WE HAVE
DECIDED TO LEAVE SOME LOW POPS IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AND WAIT FOR SOME MODEL CONSISTENCY.

[drezee]

That spin at 17.5 72 is from yesterday and is nothing. The picture below shows the areas of possible development. The one to the west is still on the wave axis and has a sharp wind field associated with it.

The one N of PR has an upper high developing over it and PR radar is looking better all the time. Plus the two buoys are showing calm winds on the S side...

Looking like it was dead on this morning...The one to the W is looking to develop along the wave axis.

I am not sure why 99L is getting more press right now. This has a west wind and convection over the developing low.

[NDG]

The area south of Hispaniola, Jamaica & Cuba in the Caribbean looks suspicious to me, bouy 42058 has been indicating light westerly winds, and buoy 42057 is indicating almost 3 MB lower than 24 hrs ago, looking at the latest visible Sat loop just south of this system looks like winds are getting ready to start blowing from a NW direction aroun 13 N & 75 W. [/url]

[Stratosphere747]

This general area has been pulsing up during the day, and losing most, if not all of its convection into the night, in the last four days.

Thought it was in the making yesterday. Now if it continues into the night....

[Thunder44]

Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 5:30 PM EDT on July 30, 2006


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

A large area of showers and thunderstorms...associated with a weak
surface trough...continues over the central to western Caribbean
Sea... Hispaniola...Puerto Rico...and the Virgin Islands. This
system has become less organized this afternoon...and upper-level
winds are forecast to become increasingly unfavorable for
development as the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
However...locally heavy rainfall...with the potential for flash
flooding...will affect portions of Hispaniola and Jamaica over the
next day or so.
Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Monday.
$$
Forecaster Rhome/Franklin

[Extremeweatherguy]

This general area has been pulsing up during the day, and losing most, if not all of its convection into the night, in the last four days.

Thought it was in the making yesterday. Now if it continues into the night....

I have noticed the same thing. I guess we will have to watch and see what happens tonight. I think it has potential if it can just keep together.

[drezee]

THIS
SYSTEM HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON...???

Excuse me...as opposed to what?

It was absoultely nothing this morning and now it is something with confirmed west winds? I will not comment further...

[drezee]

buoy 42057

Highest 1 minute Wind Speed
Time (GMT) WSPD WDIR
2022 25.3 kts ESE ( 104 deg true )

it was 11 knots this time yesterday