Invest 99L E of Lesser Antilles,Comments,Sat Pics,Etc #3

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Derek yes there is shear ahead of it...In it should be destroyed soon....But at 14 north/52 west it is showing a nice MLC not LLC. With some convection poping over it... Looks a little better for the short term...Most likely will not develop.

[vbhoutex]

This thing is NOT going to develop. I truly don't understand why after all of what we're seen we're still talking about this.



I mean don't you guys remember what developing storms LOOK like? Go back to 90L. Go back last year. Go see some REAL looking developing systems. Go read about the environmental conditions, don't you remember what conditions brought Alberto? They were practically perfect and that thing still BARELY looked like a storm.


Come on people, we need to sit back and notice something and that's that every little blob in the Atlantic doesn't develop. This doesn't mean that there are bad conditions out there for development it just means that overall it's JUST NOT HAPPENING YET.


Now I know your saying don't come in here and post if your gonna talk negative but realistically, what does 99L have going for it. Someone please break this down for me. WHY is it gonna develop, describe the environmental conditions and why there are gonna be favorable for development. The simple answer to this is you can't.


So, that's pretty much it. I contest anyone to break down to me why this invest will be developing. Every pro-met here is describing bad conditions ahead of 99L, NHC only gives it a "Marginal" shot, Jeff Masters thinks development is unlikely. Case closed.

There is no case closed on the discussion of any tropical system when members of this site care to discuss it. You are more than welcome to disagree with them on their thoughts and conclusions concerning any system in a respectful way, but not to tell them they don't know what they are talking about. Case closed.

As far as to why it will or won't develop, what are your thoughts? What do you see out ahead of it that will keep it from developing at all?

[Lifesgud2]

Season should start to heat up as everyone says, but truly there will only be 2 or 3 more storms this year. Thank G-d for this becasue I dont think everyone can take anymore of these canes rocking the US.

[vacanechaser]

Season should start to heat up as everyone says, but truly there will only be 2 or 3 more storms this year. Thank G-d for this becasue I dont think everyone can take anymore of these canes rocking the US.

2-3 more??? ok... where do you get that???



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[vbhoutex]

Season should start to heat up as everyone says, but truly there will only be 2 or 3 more storms this year. Thank G-d for this becasue I dont think everyone can take anymore of these canes rocking the US.

Can we quote you on this at the end of the season??? That is a very bold statement considering the normal averages for a season, much less the fact that we are in a more active than normal period according to almost everyone who knows anything about the tropics.

[Eyewall]

Season should start to heat up as everyone says, but truly there will only be 2 or 3 more storms this year. Thank G-d for this becasue I dont think everyone can take anymore of these canes rocking the US.

Thats just plain dumb, how can you say something like that..
thats almost impossible

[Weatherfreak000]

I'll just be a little blunt at first.



http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... shr-1.html


Unfavorable wind shear is allready upon 99L, part of the reason why it hasn't been developing much. Also...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html


According to this Wind Shear appears to be on the increase ahead of it....also not favorable for development.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/wv-l.jpg


This shows Dry Air to the North and West of the system, more factors contributing to this system slowly becoming more unorganized.


QuikSCAT shows the system doesn't have any sort of circulation whatsoever. Convection is minimal and only apparent to the Northwest side all of it far away from any sort of "center". The Invest for the past few days has been like a coiled spring once tight and held together now slowly but surely becoming uncoiled.


It's likely before the system can even come close to encountering a better environment the dry air and increasing shear around it will completely disipate what's left it of leaving it as nothing.


And that's why I think it won't develop.

[Steve]

>>Neither system is likely to develop
...
>>And I would definitely agree.

Sorry no time frames were given, but there will be uptight watching of the Gulf of Mexico later this week and maybe some gnashing of teeth after. We're only coming into the uptick of the season. While neither may ever develop, you kinda hate to see pros saying neither is likely without some kind of qualifier. We're not in early July now. I'd rather see something like "we'll just have to wait and see if conditions improve and/or if one of these suckaz decides to give it a go." Because if either of the systems or both end up cranking and getting classified, all the "know it all" amateurs (and the smarter ones too ) are gonna remember 'so and so said development wasn't going to happen." Just my opinion of course.

Steve

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

As long as there is convection and as long as the NHC still mention potential TD formation, then there should be no reason to write it off.

[Scorpion]

I'll just be a little blunt at first.



http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... shr-1.html


Unfavorable wind shear is allready upon 99L, part of the reason why it hasn't been developing much. Also...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html


According to this Wind Shear appears to be on the increase ahead of it....also not favorable for development.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/wv-l.jpg


This shows Dry Air to the North and West of the system, more factors contributing to this system slowly becoming more unorganized.


QuikSCAT shows the system doesn't have any sort of circulation whatsoever. Convection is minimal and only apparent to the Northwest side all of it far away from any sort of "center". The Invest for the past few days has been like a coiled spring once tight and held together now slowly but surely becoming uncoiled.


It's likely before the system can even come close to encountering a better environment the dry air and increasing shear around it will completely disipate what's left it of leaving it as nothing.


And that's why I think it won't develop.

The problem is, the wind shear is NOT unfavorable. You're using the maps but they go against what you say. The Caribbean looks shear free. 10-15 kts at most. That is not nearly enough to hinder development.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

If it continues moving WNW, then the shear should stay low for awhile with a few areas of increasing shear. SAL is the biggest problem.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 0split.jpg

[Weatherfreak000]

I'll just be a little blunt at first.



http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... shr-1.html


Unfavorable wind shear is allready upon 99L, part of the reason why it hasn't been developing much. Also...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html


According to this Wind Shear appears to be on the increase ahead of it....also not favorable for development.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/wv-l.jpg


This shows Dry Air to the North and West of the system, more factors contributing to this system slowly becoming more unorganized.


QuikSCAT shows the system doesn't have any sort of circulation whatsoever. Convection is minimal and only apparent to the Northwest side all of it far away from any sort of "center". The Invest for the past few days has been like a coiled spring once tight and held together now slowly but surely becoming uncoiled.


It's likely before the system can even come close to encountering a better environment the dry air and increasing shear around it will completely disipate what's left it of leaving it as nothing.


And that's why I think it won't develop.

The problem is, the wind shear is NOT unfavorable. You're using the maps but they go against what you say. The Caribbean looks shear free. 10-15 kts at most. That is not nearly enough to hinder development.

Of course 15 Knots of shear isn't too bad. It's just MARGINAL bad for development. However, dry air intrusion all around the system inhibits convection firing up. So does it really even matter?

[HurricaneHunter914]

Actually, yes because if this can live through the dry air and sal, then it will have no problem developing in the Caribbean.

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

I don't think people should write off this wave or say it has NO chance of development until it's run ashore somewhere.

[LAwxrgal]

This is beginning to be reminiscent of last year, not in the amount or intensity of activity, but with conditions farther out in the Atlantic being less favorable for development and closer to home being more favorable, that waves that somehow survive the treacherous conditions of the tropical Atlantic develop once they get in the Caribbean and/or the Gulf of Mexico.

Am I making any sense here?

[wxmann_91]

This is beginning to be reminiscent of last year, not in the amount or intensity of activity, but with conditions farther out in the Atlantic being less favorable for development and closer to home being more favorable, that waves that somehow survive the treacherous conditions of the tropical Atlantic develop once they get in the Caribbean and/or the Gulf of Mexico.

Am I making any sense here?

This is fairly common in June-early August, remember. If this continues into September then we can say that.

I won't say this has NO chance of development. It's just that it's pretty slim.

[vbhoutex]

This is beginning to be reminiscent of last year, not in the amount or intensity of activity, but with conditions farther out in the Atlantic being less favorable for development and closer to home being more favorable, that waves that somehow survive the treacherous conditions of the tropical Atlantic develop once they get in the Caribbean and/or the Gulf of Mexico.

Am I making any sense here?

Yes you are and I don't like what you are saying!!!!(That is not a dig at you either!) I just don't like the thought, especially because it appears to be right at the moment. We are just at the beginning of the CV season though so we will see if this holds.

[Weatherfreak000]

Chances are lower over 99L, while the coloring is higher over the African wave.

[cheezyWXguy]

I get the feeling that this will not develop in the next 2 days...however, conditions are becoming more favorable IF it takes a track to the west or wnw...i do think that if this does develop, it could be debby, instead of chris be debby...the wave off africa looks promising and both need to be watched closely as i believe that the africa one may develop first(although its too early to tell) Just my 2 cents...take it or leave it...just dont take it as a forecast, just a guess from a n00b

[Grease Monkey]

I get the feeling that this will not develop in the next 2 days...however, conditions are becoming more favorable IF it takes a track to the west or wnw...i do think that if this does develop, it could be debby, instead of chris be debby...the wave off africa looks promising and both need to be watched closely as i believe that the africa one may develop first(although its too early to tell) Just my 2 cents...take it or leave it...just dont take it as a forecast, just a guess from a n00b

Come on show some confidence.