Invest 99L E of Lesser Antilles,Comments,Sat Pics,Etc #3

Thunder44 · #341 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 6:58 am

On visible imagery this morning there appears to be a mid to lower-level circulation racing westard ahead of cluster of thunderstorms to the east. Perhaps not reaching at the surface and not completely closed either. So far further development not looking good today. The plane will probably be cancelled.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Nimbus · #342 Postby **Nimbus** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 7:00 am

The morning visibles show the low cloud structure pretty clearly. If there are any winds from the west they would be in a small area.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Thunder44 · #343 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 7:06 am

caneman wrote:
drezee wrote:
wxman57 wrote:9Z QuikSCAT, just a wave:
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... 0_99as.png

Ground truth
Buoy 41100 is S of whatever could be a LLC and it just had the NE to SE win shift...this is indeed a wave...don't let the visibles fool you...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41100

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N54W 12N56W 6N56W
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 15 KT. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 15N55W

From the 8:00 discussion

Where are they getting a 1012mb low from? The pressures I see this morning are only down to 1015mb.

Frank2 · #344 Postby **Frank2** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 7:24 am

Well, this system finally became isolated from the ITCZ, but, it appears now to be moving WNW, which would take it across the larger islands and, just a guess here, but would merge with the area east of the ULL that is north of Hispanola...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

Frank

#345 Postby **drezee** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 7:26 am

That northerly shear is a beast...and that is dry air...kinda like blowing a hair dryer on fresh foam...a hint..."the foam is losing"..low level structure is getting better developed though

but don't forget

drezee wrote:don't let the visibles fool you...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41101

Thunder44 · #346 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 7:35 am

292
WHXX01 KWBC 311223
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992006) ON 20060731 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060731 1200 060801 0000 060801 1200 060802 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.4N 56.6W 15.4N 58.6W 15.4N 60.6W 15.6N 62.8W
BAMM 15.4N 56.6W 15.9N 58.8W 16.5N 61.2W 17.3N 63.4W
A98E 15.4N 56.6W 16.9N 59.6W 18.0N 62.2W 19.3N 64.7W
LBAR 15.4N 56.6W 16.5N 59.1W 17.6N 61.5W 18.6N 63.7W
SHIP 25KTS 25KTS 26KTS 27KTS
DSHP 25KTS 25KTS 26KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060802 1200 060803 1200 060804 1200 060805 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.7N 65.1W 15.8N 69.3W 15.7N 72.7W 15.4N 76.5W
BAMM 17.9N 65.5W 18.7N 69.3W 18.8N 72.7W 18.6N 76.6W
A98E 20.4N 66.9W 22.9N 71.9W 25.1N 76.6W 26.8N 81.5W
LBAR 19.4N 65.9W 20.6N 69.4W 21.5N 72.6W 22.2N 77.0W
SHIP 29KTS 34KTS 40KTS 50KTS
DSHP 29KTS 28KTS 30KTS 40KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.4N LONCUR = 56.6W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 13.6N LONM12 = 53.6W DIRM12 = 302DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 12.1N LONM24 = 51.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

boca · #347 Postby **boca** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 7:43 am

99L is making a comeback with convection,but as long as the ULL in the eastern Bahamas is there the SE coast is basically safe.

#348 Postby **storms in NC** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:02 am

It has came a long way and still it try to hang on. But it keep losing it cloud's top blown away. Then builds them right back. You have to say it is the little train I think I can I think I can.LOL will it hang on ? Well it has been though dry air the whole time it has crossed. Now what is a little more dry air. There is not much dry air left. It will soon have all the moisture it wants to do with. The shears is really not that bad. I have seen worse. But In all it could just say hay I give up. I really didn't think it would make it this far. I gave it 2 days after coming off the coast. But it didn't die. Last year they would come off and just die. The waves that have come off the coast have made it across but that is about all they have done. That it did come this far I would say yes there is a chance. We will see what this afternoon and evening does.JMO :wink:

stormernie · #349 Postby **stormernie** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:03 am

There are multiple centers, one has raced to the west of the thunderstorms buildup, but there seems to be a second that has tucked in to the northern section of the thunderstorms. If this trend continues then we may see a Tropical Depression later today. However, there is some northwest shear as well as dry air continues to be a contributing factor. It may very well take another day or two to develop.

Derek Ortt · #350 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:07 am

we are finally getting some decent inflow with this system

#351 Postby **storms in NC** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:08 am

boca wrote:99L is making a comeback with convection,but as long as the ULL in the eastern Bahamas is there the SE coast is basically safe.

By the time 99l would get there the ull would have moved off to the east. IMO

Thunder44 · #352 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:11 am

It's starting to get little better organized now. I noticed the winds at those two buoys surrounding the center have sharpened it bit. We might get development today if the thunderstorms move closer to the center.

jabber · #353 Postby **jabber** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:25 am

Derek,

What do you use to 'See' inflow? Just try to learn.

Thanks

Derek Ortt wrote:we are finally getting some decent inflow with this system

HouTXmetro · #354 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:25 am

Looks good to me, I see a clear rotation.

Thunder44 · #355 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:27 am

You can see inflow when you look at the low-clouds on the south side of the system heading inwards to the convection.

NONAME · #356 Postby **NONAME** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:28 am

The Convection is starting to sustain and refire. IMO i think it is finally starting to get its act togeather they will probley send Recon in now I think. So Derek is that a sign devlopment with decent inflow now.

Derek Ortt · #357 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:32 am

use the visible sat to observe surface inflow or outflow

is looking better organized; however, ths is a very small system. Thus, it may not be able to survive the NW shear

Derek Ortt · #358 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:34 am

working against it, it just spit an outflow boundary out of the northern side of the convection. I'd look for the flare up to die down soon.

I would not be sending recon into this if I made the call

cheezyWXguy · #359 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:36 am

its survived all the other limiting factors on its way here...why wouldnt it here? Its come back again and again and it could make it to TD status late tonite (a guess)

Thunder44 · #360 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:45 am

Derek Ortt wrote:working against it, it just spit an outflow boundary out of the northern side of the convection. I'd look for the flare up to die down soon.

I would not be sending recon into this if I made the call

I see another flare up on the NE side.

Invest 99L E of Lesser Antilles,Comments,Sat Pics,Etc #3

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