Invest 99L E of Lesser Antilles,Comments,Sat Pics,Etc #3

#421 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 11:44 am

wxman57 wrote:Take a look at this comparison image. On the top is 99L. But what's that on the bottom?

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/99Lg.gif

Old TD 10 from last year or TD 12?

#422 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 11:45 am

so when if ever will recon go out 99l?

wxmann_91 · #423 Postby **wxmann_91** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 11:45 am

Wow, I had no idea. In any way, the disturbance in the bottom image is much more organized.

Good comparison wxman57!

#424 Postby **seaswing** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 11:46 am

alan1961 wrote:Well the accuweather centre dont give a damn about 99L it in there tropical update , there more concerned about the areas around eastern cuba and the dominican

Thats because the areas that are being watched are areas that have produced recent storms like Katrina and Wilma

cheezyWXguy · #425 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 11:47 am

thats TD10!

Epsilon_Fan · #426 Postby **Epsilon_Fan** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 11:49 am

A little more convection around the center and we's got ourselves a TD!

Thunder44 · #427 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 11:51 am

wxmann_91 wrote:Wow, I had no idea. In any way, the disturbance in the bottom image is much more organized.

Good comparison wxman57!

I disagree it doesn't look any better organized. More outflow but less convection around the center, if there is one.

NONAME · #428 Postby **NONAME** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 11:55 am

Um Didn't the LLC from TD10 race of to the west and it midlevel center helped form TD12 and the reason it was TD10 again. So if that is after the last advisory of TD10 then there is no LLC on the bottom Image.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #429 Postby **senorpepr** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 11:56 am

fact789 wrote:so when if ever will recon go out 99l?

The answer: When, if ever, 99L becomes better organized.

#430 Postby **curtadams** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 11:56 am

wxmann_91 wrote:Wow, I had no idea. In any way, the disturbance in the bottom image is much more organized.

Good comparison wxman57!

It's very hard to determine organization from a single shot, but I think 99L is much more organized. Convection in the lower shot is rather scattered and there's some going on well away from the disturbance. Since it's a single shot, I can't say whether the updraft of the disturbance is generating any convection. With 99L, all the convection is occuring in the center's updraft - there's nothing whatsoever else going on. It's weak and it's sheared but it's as organized as a TD-level disturbance can be.

cheezyWXguy · #431 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 11:57 am

I thought TD10 was renamed TD 12 because jose formed in between both of them as TD11

#432 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 12:01 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:I thought TD10 was renamed TD 12 because jose formed in between both of them as TD11

The low level vorticity from TD 10 dissipated near Cuba. It was the mid level energy from TD 10 that spawned Katrina as it met up with more low level energy from another tropical wave. This spun up at the sfc...and thus Katrina was born.

#433 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 12:01 pm

Boy...too bad the rotation wasn't under that convection.

cheezyWXguy · #434 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 12:03 pm

Is there even an open circulation at the surface? it looks a ton like it to me...

Nimbus · #435 Postby **Nimbus** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 12:05 pm

Be interesting to see the surface observations when this blows through around midnight

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TFFR.html

NONAME · #436 Postby **NONAME** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 12:05 pm

Ya but the Rotation is Very Close

#437 Postby **storms in NC** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 12:14 pm

It has been in dry air for days. Not much more to go of dry air. Now for today it looks so much better then it did. It is growing with every frame. Now is it from the heat of the day or is it really organizing? that is the big question. We will not know till later this evening. Tonight will tell the story. It is small but so was Charley. from the looks of thing it wouldn't take much for this to really grow.

HouTXmetro · #438 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 12:18 pm

IMO opinion this is TD based in satellite representation. Not saying that It will survive and become a TS due to shear but as as far as I'm concerned it's a TD. The question is will shear make it an open wave again later or will it become a bonifided Tropical Depression or Storm.

#439 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 12:20 pm

Nimbus wrote:Be interesting to see the surface observations when this blows through around midnight

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TFFR.html

I am looking at the buoy reports and I am not very impressed. I am not sure why they have initialized the models at 1011mbs. I think that is a couple of mb too high. The buoy that was just south of there reported a 1014mb as the wave passed...and it was only about 60 miles away. If there was a 3 mb pressure diff...we would see a definite low level circulation.

Funny thing is the pressure actually went UP :uarrow:

as the wave approached.

#440 Postby **storms in NC** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 12:21 pm

The shear is not that bad. It is to clam down tonight away from what I have read.

Invest 99L E of Lesser Antilles,Comments,Sat Pics,Etc #3

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